Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, January 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | SuperSonics | 64% | 103 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Bulls | 58% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Heat | 37% | 87 | 65 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bucks | 40% | 94 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Pistons | 52% | 93 | 78 |
 | 19 | Celtics | 48% | 92 | 68 |
Sunday, January 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Lakers | 62% | 107 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 42% | 94 | 73 |
 | 23 | Raptors | 58% | 97 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 54% | 99 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nets | 53% | 91 | 95 | |
 | 16 | Knicks | 47% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 26% | 100 | 99 | |
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Saturday, January 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Nuggets | 72% | 102 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 16% | 82 | 83 |
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 95 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 108 | 116 |
| 23 | Clippers | 31% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 26% | 89 | 93 |
| 7 | Pistons | 74% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 84 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 66% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Magic | 22% | 96 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 46% | 97 | 88 |
| 26 | Bulls | 54% | 98 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 31% | 100 | 112 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 69% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jazz | 28% | 87 | 63 |
| 12 | Rockets | 72% | 95 | 84 |
Friday, January 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 40% | 98 | 106 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 51% | 98 | 79 |
| 30 | Wizards | 49% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 52% | 94 | 86 | |
| 24 | Raptors | 48% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 54% | 93 | 103 |
| 19 | Celtics | 46% | 92 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 30% | 92 | 104 |
| 17 | Knicks | 70% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 23 | Cavaliers | 26% | 87 | 82 |
| 6 | Nets | 74% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 38% | 94 | 101 |
| 26 | Heat | 62% | 98 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 18% | 90 | 75 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 82% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 36% | 95 | 88 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 64% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 107 | 101 |
| 14 | Bucks | 45% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 46% | 104 | 109 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 54% | 105 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 29% | 90 | 81 |
| 12 | Pistons | 71% | 97 | 93 |
Wednesday, December 31, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 90 | 71 |
| 9 | Pistons | 70% | 96 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 49% | 97 | 96 | |
| 20 | Celtics | 51% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 25% | 91 | 70 |
| 5 | Nets | 75% | 99 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 41% | 101 | 104 |
| 24 | Clippers | 59% | 104 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 30% | 86 | 72 |
| 10 | Rockets | 70% | 92 | 80 |
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 37% | 95 | 81 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 99 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 22% | 101 | 92 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 78% | 111 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 35% | 98 | 105 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 65% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 12% | 89 | 93 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 88% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 32% | 89 | 73 |
| 18 | Knicks | 68% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 52% | 91 | 92 |
| 21 | Cavaliers | 48% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 40% | 94 | 83 |
| 29 | Wizards | 60% | 97 | 73 |
Monday, December 29, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 39% | 99 | 113 |
| 21 | Clippers | 61% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 35% | 96 | 100 |
| 19 | Warriors | 65% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 36% | 90 | 97 |
| 14 | Jazz | 64% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 36% | 92 | 87 | |
| 10 | Rockets | 64% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 43% | 92 | 90 |
| 27 | Bulls | 57% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 37% | 89 | 99 | |
| 8 | Pistons | 63% | 94 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 21% | 89 | 91 |
| 5 | Nets | 79% | 99 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 36% | 90 | 86 |
| 7 | Pacers | 64% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 44% | 98 | 114 |
| 25 | Magic | 56% | 100 | 86 |
Sunday, December 28, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 96 | 74 |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 56% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 41% | 96 | 94 |
| 21 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 19% | 89 | 74 |
| 2 | Spurs | 81% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 46% | 94 | 92 |
| 24 | Suns | 54% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 37% | 100 | 79 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 63% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 18% | 94 | 89 |
| 1 | Kings | 82% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 25% | 99 | 82 |
| 6 | Lakers | 75% | 107 | 105 |
Saturday, December 27, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 44% | 98 | 104 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 56% | 100 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 23% | 101 | 98 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 77% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 36% | 91 | 86 |
| 28 | Bulls | 64% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 86 | 82 | |
| 7 | Pacers | 62% | 90 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 43% | 91 | 100 |
| 27 | Heat | 57% | 93 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 65% | 94 | 87 |
| 29 | Hawks | 35% | 90 | 84 |
Friday, December 26, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 45% | 98 | 104 |
| 22 | Suns | 55% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 51% | 92 | 92 |
| 30 | Wizards | 49% | 91 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 35% | 92 | 87 |
| 21 | Cavaliers | 65% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 24% | 92 | 79 |
| 10 | Hornets | 76% | 101 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 44% | 88 | 82 | |
| 12 | Pistons | 56% | 90 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 27% | 92 | 98 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 73% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 51% | 94 | 96 |
| 14 | Bucks | 49% | 93 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 41% | 94 | 94 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 59% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 36% | 91 | 94 |
| 18 | Jazz | 64% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 11% | 87 | 83 |
| 3 | Spurs | 89% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 46% | 95 | 98 |
| 24 | Clippers | 54% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 58% | 103 | 91 |
| 20 | Warriors | 42% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 98 | 92 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 97 | 101 |
Thursday, December 25, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 33% | 95 | 99 |
| 5 | Lakers | 67% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 27% | 104 | 111 |
| 1 | Kings | 73% | 112 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cavaliers | 44% | 98 | 101 |
| 26 | Magic | 56% | 100 | 113 |
Tuesday, December 23, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 59% | 96 | 98 |
| 24 | Knicks | 41% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 15% | 86 | 78 |
| 6 | Nets | 85% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 34% | 90 | 72 |
| 27 | Heat | 66% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 54% | 99 | 88 |
| 28 | Hawks | 46% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 47% | 95 | 78 |
| 13 | Bucks | 53% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 43% | 86 | 79 |
| 12 | Rockets | 57% | 88 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 16% | 88 | 90 |
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 19% | 97 | 97 |
| 1 | Kings | 81% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 106 | 88 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 41% | 98 | 90 |
| 18 | SuperSonics | 59% | 101 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 58% | 104 | 98 |
| 21 | Warriors | 42% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 54% | 96 | 86 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 46% | 95 | 97 |