Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 2, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Lakers | 64% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 31 | Bucks | 16% | 95 | 104 |
 | 3 | Mavericks | 84% | 108 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Suns | 83% | 108 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Celtics | 30% | 90 | 88 |
 | 8 | Pistons | 70% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, January 1, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Timberwolves | 66% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 38% | 94 | 93 | |
 | 17 | Knicks | 62% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 35 | Bobcats | 10% | 91 | 90 |
 | 6 | Heat | 90% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Magic | 57% | 99 | 90 |
 | 32 | Bulls | 43% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 25 | Trail Blazers | 59% | 99 | 97 |
Friday, December 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 34% | 94 | 90 |
| 21 | Rockets | 66% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 95 | 98 |
| 26 | Clippers | 33% | 89 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kings | 64% | 104 | 109 |
| 31 | Jazz | 36% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 42% | 96 | 92 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 58% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 64% | 101 | 103 | |
| 35 | Bobcats | 36% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 36% | 101 | 103 |
| 15 | Celtics | 64% | 105 | 108 |
Thursday, December 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 43% | 92 | 89 |
| 8 | Pistons | 57% | 94 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 75% | 105 | 94 | |
| 36 | Hawks | 25% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 21 | Nets | 57% | 90 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 93 | 114 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 88 | 80 |
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 60% | 96 | 107 |
| 27 | Wizards | 40% | 92 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 64% | 96 | 74 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 36% | 92 | 71 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bucks | 20% | 97 | 111 |
| 13 | Magic | 80% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 30% | 91 | 98 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Cavaliers | 70% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 102 | 87 |
| 16 | Knicks | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 30% | 95 | 109 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 70% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 66% | 102 | 107 | |
| 34 | Hornets | 34% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 42% | 95 | 90 |
| 28 | Clippers | 58% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Raptors | 36% | 97 | 105 |
| 24 | Warriors | 64% | 102 | 111 |
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 33% | 97 | 99 |
| 14 | Lakers | 67% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 27% | 96 | 114 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 73% | 104 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 33% | 97 | 94 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 24% | 98 | 94 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 76% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 40% | 89 | 84 | |
| 31 | Bulls | 60% | 92 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 52% | 97 | 87 |
| 32 | Bucks | 48% | 96 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 73% | 100 | 111 |
| 36 | Hawks | 27% | 93 | 102 |
Monday, December 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 25% | 91 | 76 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 46% | 98 | 101 |
| 25 | Warriors | 54% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 40% | 93 | 111 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 58% | 103 | 98 | |
| 29 | Jazz | 42% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Nets | 19% | 80 | 90 | |
| 9 | Pistons | 81% | 90 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 10% | 91 | 102 |
| 6 | Heat | 90% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 14% | 83 | 82 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 86% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 27% | 99 | 119 |
| 14 | Magic | 73% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 30% | 96 | 87 |
| 27 | Wizards | 70% | 103 | 106 |
Sunday, December 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 24% | 90 | 91 | |
| 17 | Cavaliers | 76% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 30% | 96 | 82 |
| 21 | Knicks | 70% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bulls | 45% | 96 | 92 |
| 30 | Bucks | 55% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 18% | 89 | 90 |
| 2 | Spurs | 82% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 25% | 98 | 74 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 75% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 20% | 100 | 94 |
| 4 | Suns | 80% | 110 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 36% | 91 | 79 |
| 15 | Rockets | 64% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 56% | 100 | 102 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 44% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Warriors | 21% | 98 | 98 |
| 7 | Kings | 79% | 108 | 94 |
Saturday, December 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 51% | 102 | 104 |
| 14 | Lakers | 49% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 51% | 88 | 98 |
| 12 | Pacers | 49% | 87 | 93 |
Thursday, December 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 33% | 100 | 109 |
| 5 | Kings | 67% | 106 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 23% | 100 | 102 |
| 4 | Suns | 77% | 109 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 34% | 91 | 82 |
| 2 | Spurs | 66% | 97 | 96 |
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 31% | 96 | 83 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 69% | 102 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 32% | 99 | 109 |
| 13 | Celtics | 68% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 39% | 98 | 86 |
| 24 | Raptors | 61% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 99 | 87 |
| 14 | Magic | 35% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 76ers | 39% | 92 | 102 |
| 18 | Pacers | 61% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 52% | 93 | 90 |
| 31 | Nets | 48% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 76% | 102 | 100 |
| 36 | Hawks | 24% | 93 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 96 | 104 |
| 30 | Bucks | 51% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 20% | 89 | 90 |
| 17 | Rockets | 80% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 54% | 99 | 99 |
| 29 | Warriors | 46% | 97 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 18% | 88 | 89 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 82% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bulls | 18% | 83 | 89 |
| 8 | Pistons | 82% | 94 | 82 |
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 30% | 98 | 100 |
| 9 | Heat | 70% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nets | 47% | 91 | 94 | |
| 33 | Bobcats | 53% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 59% | 100 | 97 |
| 20 | Cavaliers | 41% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 56% | 104 | 123 |
| 16 | Knicks | 44% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 21% | 100 | 93 |
| 8 | Kings | 79% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 26% | 88 | 91 | |
| 18 | Clippers | 74% | 95 | 100 |
Monday, December 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 31% | 95 | 103 |
| 23 | 76ers | 69% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 48% | 102 | 103 |
| 27 | Warriors | 52% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 36% | 97 | 82 |
| 11 | Lakers | 64% | 102 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 56% | 105 | 107 | |
| 15 | Nuggets | 44% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 29% | 92 | 102 |
| 19 | Rockets | 71% | 98 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 94 | 87 |
| 32 | Bulls | 49% | 93 | 92 |