Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 58% | 105 | 106 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Mavericks | 54% | 100 | 102 |
 | 15 | Timberwolves | 46% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Bulls | 42% | 93 | 78 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Celtics | 60% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Raptors | 56% | 102 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 58% | 103 | 90 | |
 | 29 | Knicks | 42% | 101 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nets | 32% | 93 | 98 | |
 | 23 | Magic | 68% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Pistons | 78% | 96 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, March 12, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nuggets | 21% | 87 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bucks | 46% | 95 | 107 |
| 34 | Hornets | 54% | 96 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 35 | Hawks | 44% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Lakers | 69% | 101 | 117 |
 | 36 | Bobcats | 31% | 95 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 22% | 90 | 65 | |
 | 5 | Heat | 78% | 100 | 90 |
Friday, March 11, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Bobcats | 23% | 92 | 80 |
| 16 | 76ers | 77% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hawks | 25% | 94 | 116 |
| 26 | Raptors | 75% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Timberwolves | 38% | 97 | 101 |
| 22 | Magic | 62% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 36% | 94 | 83 |
| 12 | Pacers | 64% | 98 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 58% | 97 | 113 |
| 18 | Celtics | 42% | 94 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 56% | 95 | 94 |
| 21 | Jazz | 44% | 93 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 32% | 100 | 127 |
| 4 | Suns | 68% | 106 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 35% | 98 | 112 |
| 11 | Kings | 65% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 53% | 102 | 112 |
| 29 | Bucks | 47% | 101 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bulls | 25% | 94 | 100 |
| 7 | SuperSonics | 75% | 103 | 97 | |
Thursday, March 10, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 31% | 99 | 100 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 69% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 30% | 94 | 90 |
| 6 | Heat | 70% | 101 | 107 |
Wednesday, March 9, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 44% | 99 | 101 |
| 4 | Suns | 56% | 101 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hawks | 17% | 92 | 91 |
| 19 | Celtics | 83% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 38% | 100 | 96 |
| 26 | Raptors | 62% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 19% | 89 | 88 |
| 5 | Pistons | 81% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 46% | 89 | 86 | |
| 34 | Hornets | 54% | 90 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Bulls | 49% | 92 | 97 |
| 32 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 93 | 84 |
Tuesday, March 8, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 32% | 96 | 110 |
| 17 | Lakers | 68% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 41% | 99 | 104 |
| 15 | 76ers | 59% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 39% | 98 | 92 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 61% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 51% | 104 | 83 |
| 29 | Knicks | 49% | 103 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 30% | 93 | 101 |
| 28 | Bucks | 70% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 22% | 90 | 97 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 78% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 11% | 81 | 74 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 89% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 43% | 93 | 89 |
| 20 | Jazz | 57% | 95 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 44% | 99 | 82 |
| 12 | Kings | 56% | 100 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 36% | 97 | 97 |
| 7 | SuperSonics | 64% | 101 | 95 | |
Monday, March 7, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 60% | 95 | 105 |
| 28 | Clippers | 40% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 91 | 98 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 70% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 26% | 97 | 105 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 74% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 42% | 95 | 85 |
| 30 | Bulls | 58% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 34% | 96 | 100 |
| 6 | Heat | 66% | 102 | 108 |
Sunday, March 6, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 42% | 95 | 94 |
| 18 | Lakers | 58% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 37% | 104 | 110 | |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 63% | 108 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 52% | 99 | 102 |
| 17 | Cavaliers | 48% | 98 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 47% | 101 | 99 |
| 29 | Knicks | 53% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 11% | 84 | 94 |
| 2 | Spurs | 89% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 53% | 96 | 95 |
| 34 | Hornets | 47% | 95 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 46% | 98 | 99 |
| 23 | Celtics | 54% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistons | 57% | 98 | 85 |
| 15 | Kings | 43% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 48% | 99 | 69 |
| 10 | Rockets | 52% | 100 | 90 |
Saturday, March 5, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bulls | 38% | 95 | 87 |
| 27 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 48% | 95 | 105 |
| 29 | Clippers | 52% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 60% | 100 | 86 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 40% | 97 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 63% | 98 | 98 |
| 36 | Hawks | 37% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 37% | 94 | 105 |
| 26 | Nets | 63% | 98 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 96 | 116 |
| 4 | Suns | 86% | 109 | 129 | |
Friday, March 4, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 38% | 101 | 103 |
| 17 | Wizards | 62% | 105 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 40% | 97 | 89 |
| 14 | 76ers | 60% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Knicks | 37% | 99 | 89 |
| 21 | Magic | 63% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 25% | 94 | 84 |
| 20 | Celtics | 75% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kings | 35% | 99 | 83 |
| 9 | Heat | 65% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 25% | 93 | 75 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 75% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bucks | 31% | 95 | 97 |
| 11 | Timberwolves | 69% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Bulls | 10% | 83 | 99 |
| 2 | Spurs | 90% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 40% | 92 | 106 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 95 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 58% | 104 | 103 |
| 18 | Lakers | 42% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 40% | 94 | 87 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 60% | 97 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 53% | 93 | 85 |
| 34 | Hornets | 47% | 92 | 92 | |
Thursday, March 3, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistons | 44% | 97 | 97 |
| 7 | Suns | 56% | 99 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 41% | 92 | 87 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 59% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 53% | 94 | 106 |
| 21 | Nets | 47% | 93 | 90 | |
Wednesday, March 2, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 39% | 100 | 101 |
| 18 | Celtics | 61% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Nets | 36% | 92 | 99 | |
| 14 | 76ers | 64% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 45% | 99 | 98 |
| 23 | Wizards | 55% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 39% | 101 | 111 |
| 22 | Magic | 61% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 41% | 100 | 103 | |
| 11 | Cavaliers | 59% | 103 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 26% | 95 | 99 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 74% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 13% | 88 | 86 |
| 2 | Spurs | 87% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 33% | 90 | 85 |
| 34 | Hornets | 67% | 95 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 20% | 90 | 74 |
| 21 | Jazz | 80% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 101 | 92 |
| 30 | Clippers | 37% | 97 | 101 |
Tuesday, March 1, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pistons | 63% | 93 | 103 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 89 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 22% | 92 | 74 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 78% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 51% | 95 | 119 |
| 26 | Bulls | 49% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 49% | 100 | 118 |
| 29 | Bucks | 51% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 46% | 96 | 101 | |
| 14 | Pacers | 54% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 69% | 104 | 87 |
| 35 | Bobcats | 31% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 26% | 94 | 97 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 74% | 102 | 99 |
Monday, February 28, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 71% | 96 | 94 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 29% | 89 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Clippers | 36% | 93 | 86 |
| 21 | Jazz | 64% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 8% | 89 | 86 | |
| 3 | Mavericks | 92% | 106 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 39% | 100 | 115 |
| 29 | Knicks | 61% | 103 | 117 |