Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 42% | 103 | 91 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Hornets | 42% | 102 | 94 |
 | 9 | Raptors | 58% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Mavericks | 47% | 104 | 82 |
 | 15 | Heat | 53% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 36% | 101 | 81 |
 | 14 | Bulls | 64% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Lakers | 57% | 105 | 93 |
Thursday, December 31, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bucks | 29% | 98 | 120 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 102 | 90 |
 | 16 | Pistons | 70% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Pelicans | 48% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, December 30, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 47% | 104 | 122 |
| 9 | Hornets | 53% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Nets | 34% | 102 | 93 |
| 20 | Magic | 66% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 18% | 101 | 112 |
 | 8 | Celtics | 82% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 37% | 102 | 91 |
| 10 | Raptors | 63% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 51% | 104 | 100 |
| 16 | Bulls | 49% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 80 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 51% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 66% | 112 | 91 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 34% | 106 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 11% | 93 | 79 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 24% | 101 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 106 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 52% | 106 | 96 |
| 23 | Knicks | 48% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 39% | 99 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Rockets | 61% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 13% | 96 | 123 |
| 3 | Thunder | 87% | 112 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Cavaliers | 67% | 106 | 93 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 33% | 100 | 87 |
Monday, December 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 42% | 103 | 87 |
| 9 | Pacers | 58% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 15% | 99 | 98 |
| 8 | Hornets | 85% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 49% | 107 | 89 |
| 21 | Magic | 51% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 56% | 107 | 108 |
| 17 | Wizards | 44% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 25% | 100 | 111 |
| 12 | Heat | 75% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 47% | 102 | 97 |
| 16 | Bulls | 53% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 15% | 93 | 95 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 29% | 101 | 93 |
| 14 | Mavericks | 71% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 73% | 109 | 101 |
| 26 | Suns | 27% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 23% | 94 | 91 |
| 20 | Jazz | 77% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 13% | 102 | 103 |
| 1 | Warriors | 87% | 117 | 122 |
Sunday, December 27, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 24% | 99 | 96 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 76% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 25% | 100 | 91 |
| 6 | Celtics | 75% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 12% | 98 | 112 |
| 3 | Thunder | 88% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 104 | 98 |
| 17 | Kings | 68% | 110 | 94 |
Saturday, December 26, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 60% | 108 | 111 |
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 60% | 101 | 111 |
| 26 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 108 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 52% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 46% | 101 | 108 |
| 21 | Magic | 54% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 43% | 100 | 92 |
| 11 | Hornets | 57% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 52% | 107 | 99 |
| 16 | Pistons | 48% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 31% | 100 | 98 |
| 9 | Hawks | 69% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 62% | 107 | 102 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 38% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 14% | 93 | 86 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 36% | 104 | 111 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 64% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 53% | 103 | 109 |
| 20 | Jazz | 47% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 26% | 100 | 111 |
| 22 | Suns | 74% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 69% | 105 | 76 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 98 | 105 |
Friday, December 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 28% | 101 | 105 |
| 4 | Thunder | 72% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 31% | 103 | 83 |
| 1 | Warriors | 69% | 110 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 106 | 84 |
| 7 | Rockets | 36% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 78% | 114 | 94 |
| 29 | Lakers | 22% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 88 |
| 16 | Heat | 58% | 107 | 94 |
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 45% | 105 | 102 |
| 11 | Hornets | 55% | 106 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 23% | 99 | 84 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 77% | 110 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 35% | 106 | 108 |
| 6 | Pacers | 65% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 55% | 107 | 101 |
| 23 | Magic | 45% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 46% | 102 | 91 |
| 17 | Wizards | 54% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 59% | 109 | 119 |
| 28 | Nets | 41% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 34% | 102 | 100 |
| 8 | Hawks | 66% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 95 | 100 |
| 27 | Bucks | 75% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 106 | 108 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 24% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 105 | 89 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 60% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 36% | 104 | 104 |
| 22 | Suns | 64% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 17% | 98 | 85 |
| 1 | Warriors | 83% | 112 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 120 |
| 29 | Lakers | 20% | 102 | 85 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 75% | 105 | 104 |
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 47% | 103 | 93 |
| 16 | Heat | 53% | 104 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 46% | 104 | 99 |
| 13 | Raptors | 54% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 38% | 104 | 111 |
| 27 | Nuggets | 62% | 108 | 107 |
Monday, December 21, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 43% | 108 | 99 |
| 19 | Wizards | 57% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 27% | 102 | 99 |
| 10 | Celtics | 73% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 41% | 103 | 107 |
| 24 | Knicks | 59% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 97 | 97 |
| 8 | Hawks | 73% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 22% | 99 | 105 |
| 15 | Bulls | 78% | 110 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 42% | 105 | 95 |
| 6 | Rockets | 58% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 25% | 96 | 92 |
| 2 | Spurs | 75% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 38% | 101 | 89 |
| 20 | Jazz | 62% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 44% | 108 | 100 |
| 5 | Clippers | 56% | 110 | 99 |
Sunday, December 20, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 102 | 109 |
| 16 | Heat | 58% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 56% | 108 | 100 |
| 28 | Nets | 44% | 105 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 10% | 94 | 86 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 90% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 37% | 101 | 101 |
| 20 | Suns | 63% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 38% | 104 | 104 |
| 12 | Raptors | 62% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 56% | 104 | 103 |
| 25 | Magic | 44% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 51% | 108 | 130 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 49% | 107 | 125 |
Saturday, December 19, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 16% | 102 | 78 |
| 4 | Thunder | 84% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 54% | 106 | 101 |
| 23 | Wizards | 46% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 104 | 91 |
| 25 | Knicks | 48% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 47% | 109 | 97 |
| 7 | Rockets | 53% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 49% | 102 | 84 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 51% | 103 | 96 |