Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, February 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Celtics | 46% | 97 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 66% | 104 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, February 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Lakers | 62% | 104 | 98 |
 | 30 | Magic | 38% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Heat | 20% | 83 | 91 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 31% | 94 | 99 |
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 69% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Knicks | 60% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Nets | 78% | 95 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 43% | 100 | 85 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Raptors | 35% | 90 | 84 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 22% | 99 | 92 |
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Saturday, February 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 44% | 91 | 76 |
| 21 | Heat | 56% | 93 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 32% | 91 | 110 |
| 18 | 76ers | 68% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 90 | 86 |
| 28 | Hawks | 42% | 88 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Cavaliers | 64% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 38% | 95 | 97 | |
 | 14 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Pistons | 25% | 94 | 108 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 75% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23F79E1E;}%20.st1{fill:%23E46025;}%20.st2{fill:%23B65B27;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st0'%20points='20.3,339.6%20190,246.7%2074.9,339.6%20214.5,259.4%20212.3,275.5%20235.6,262.6%20288.1,312.3%20316.1,228.2%20351.6,223.2%20336,174.6%20369,145.9%20325.2,127.4%20337.2,76.4%20296.9,94.9%20277.9,49.3%20243.8,83.3%20187.7,53.9%20177.6,109.1%20125.8,120.3%20156.5,138.9%20125.6,154.4%20151.8,156.6%2044,240.5%20152.5,182.8%2036,271.4%20159.9,206.9%2027.7,306.4%20173.5,228.6%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M330.8,175.4c-1.9,46.6-41.3,82.8-87.9,80.9c-46.6-1.9-82.8-41.3-80.9-87.9s41.3-82.8,87.9-80.9%20C296.5,89.4,332.7,128.7,330.8,175.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M256.7,244.7c-46.6-1.9-82.8-41.3-80.9-87.9c0.9-21.6,9.8-40.9,23.8-55.2c-21.7,14.5-36.4,38.8-37.6,66.8%20c-1.9,46.6,34.3,86,80.9,87.9c25,1,48-8.9,64.2-25.7C292.7,240.2,275.3,245.5,256.7,244.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M330.9,172.8c0-3-0.1-6-0.4-9c-4.9-3.4-10.6-6-17.6-6.9c-1.3-0.2-2.5-0.3-3.8-0.4c-0.8-5.6-2.1-11-3.7-16.4%20c0.9,0.1,1.7,0.1,2.6,0.2c5.9,0.5,11.8,1.1,17.6,1.9c-0.8-2.2-1.7-4.3-2.6-6.3c-6.5-1-13.1-1.7-19.8-2.3h-0.1%20c-2.2-5.5-4.7-10.6-7.8-15.7c4.3-0.9,8.2-2.6,11.3-5.6c-1.5-1.6-3.3-3.2-5-4.6c-2.7,2.5-6.2,3.8-10.3,4.4c-0.6-0.9-1.3-1.7-1.9-2.5%20c-5.7-7.5-12.4-13.8-19.7-19c-6.4-1.8-13-2.9-19.9-3.3c-0.4,0-0.7,0-1.2,0c12.8,5.1,24.3,13.6,33.5,24.9%20c-8.8-0.8-18.9-3.8-28.9-6.7c-3-0.9-5.9-1.7-8.6-2.5c-17.1-4.7-30.2-5.5-40-4.6c-7.3,4.2-13.9,9.4-19.7,15.5%20c10.6-4.5,32.1-12,58.2-4.8c2.7,0.7,5.6,1.6,8.6,2.5c11.5,3.4,24.4,7.2,35.6,7.3c3.1,4.6,5.7,9.4,7.9,14.5%20c-2.2-0.1-4.4-0.2-6.6-0.2c-54.2-0.9-100.8,15.3-126.6,41.2c0.2,5.2,0.7,10.2,1.7,15.1c7.3-10.5,18-19.9,31.9-27.8%20c26.3-14.7,61.1-22.6,98.1-21.8c1.3,0,2.5,0.1,3.8,0.1c1.9,5.4,3.3,10.9,4.2,16.6c-23.8,1-39.3,15.9-57.1,31.8%20c-15.9,14.3-35.4,28.5-63.8,37c2.6,3.3,5.6,6.4,8.7,9.2c26.9-10.7,44.6-27.6,59.6-41.1c17.1-15.3,31.8-29.9,53.2-30.7%20c0.5,5.9,0.5,12,0,18.1c-2.9,33.1-22,61.2-48.2,75c6.6-0.6,13.2-2,19.3-4.2c2.1-1.7,4.2-3.5,6.1-5.5c17.1-16.8,27.8-39.9,29.9-64.7%20c0.5-6.2,0.5-12.4,0-18.5c1.1,0.1,2.2,0.2,3.3,0.4C320.5,164.6,326.3,168.4,330.9,172.8'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 20 | Suns | 63% | 96 | 92 |
Friday, February 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 44% | 99 | 100 |
| 27 | Wizards | 56% | 101 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 35% | 93 | 100 |
| 21 | Celtics | 65% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 60% | 89 | 83 |
| 26 | Raptors | 40% | 86 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 18% | 91 | 99 |
| 5 | Nets | 82% | 102 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 49% | 91 | 81 |
| 15 | Hornets | 51% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 20% | 92 | 92 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 80% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 37% | 97 | 85 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bulls | 23% | 87 | 80 |
| 7 | Rockets | 77% | 96 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 92 | 87 |
| 22 | Jazz | 59% | 94 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 38% | 100 | 107 | |
| 20 | Suns | 62% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 45% | 97 | 87 |
| 17 | Warriors | 55% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 32% | 94 | 102 |
| 1 | Kings | 68% | 100 | 94 |
Thursday, February 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 40% | 94 | 73 |
| 16 | 76ers | 60% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 98 | 96 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 90 | |
Wednesday, February 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 39% | 98 | 95 |
| 22 | Celtics | 61% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 58% | 98 | 103 |
| 29 | Wizards | 42% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 32% | 93 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 68% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Heat | 26% | 86 | 88 |
| 5 | Nets | 74% | 94 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 61% | 97 | 89 |
| 28 | Hawks | 39% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 57% | 100 | 111 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 43% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 49% | 101 | 113 |
| 16 | Hornets | 51% | 102 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 34% | 91 | 89 |
| 7 | Rockets | 66% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 30% | 91 | 95 |
| 21 | Jazz | 70% | 98 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 95 | 101 |
| 20 | Suns | 59% | 98 | 97 |
Tuesday, February 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 38% | 88 | 93 |
| 18 | 76ers | 62% | 91 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 51% | 91 | 90 |
| 21 | Knicks | 49% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 29% | 90 | 85 |
| 7 | Pistons | 71% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 15% | 94 | 100 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 85% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 19% | 98 | 93 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 81% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 14% | 99 | 101 | |
| 1 | Kings | 86% | 113 | 117 |
Monday, February 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 26% | 90 | 72 |
| 6 | Pacers | 74% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 55% | 90 | 102 |
| 22 | Heat | 45% | 88 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Hawks | 55% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 52% | 93 | 91 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 48% | 92 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 35% | 95 | 101 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 65% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 95 | 97 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 63% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 91 | 83 |
| 18 | Jazz | 36% | 87 | 65 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 92 | 79 |
| 23 | Suns | 42% | 90 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 28% | 98 | 97 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 72% | 105 | 109 | |
Sunday, February 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 49% | 96 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 46% | 95 | 84 |
| 22 | Raptors | 54% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 21% | 88 | 101 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 79% | 98 | 106 |
Saturday, January 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 24% | 100 | 107 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 76% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 41% | 87 | 88 | |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 89 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 34% | 102 | 115 |
| 21 | Magic | 66% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 98 | 83 |
| 28 | Hawks | 49% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 36% | 93 | 105 |
| 20 | Knicks | 64% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 34% | 90 | 78 |
| 8 | Pistons | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 28% | 89 | 94 |
| 10 | Hornets | 72% | 97 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 21% | 86 | 98 |
| 5 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 15% | 82 | 81 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 22% | 92 | 95 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 63% | 108 | 110 |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 37% | 104 | 103 | |
Friday, January 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 51% | 93 | 82 | |
| 22 | 76ers | 49% | 92 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 53% | 94 | 100 |
| 30 | Wizards | 47% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 57% | 90 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 43% | 88 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 40% | 95 | 92 |
| 19 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 38% | 95 | 88 |
| 23 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 33% | 93 | 85 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 67% | 99 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 95 |
| 12 | Bucks | 70% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 100 | 97 |
| 18 | Lakers | 44% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 28% | 93 | 81 |
| 14 | Warriors | 72% | 100 | 101 |
Thursday, January 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 89 | |
| 21 | Magic | 41% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Hawks | 56% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 35% | 94 | 96 |
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 99 | 91 |
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 55% | 93 | 106 |
| 18 | Celtics | 45% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 46% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 54% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 19% | 86 | 79 |
| 5 | Pacers | 81% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 38% | 87 | 84 |
| 25 | Raptors | 62% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 100 |
| 15 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 95 | 88 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 71% | 102 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 52% | 97 | 99 |
| 6 | Rockets | 48% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 23% | 93 | 99 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 77% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 102 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 45% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 32% | 102 | 82 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 68% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 57% | 98 | 90 |
| 17 | Warriors | 43% | 96 | 97 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 51% | 91 | 94 | |
| 17 | 76ers | 49% | 90 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 94 | 77 |
| 19 | Knicks | 40% | 91 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 47% | 94 | 89 |
| 27 | Hawks | 53% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 51% | 108 | 118 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 49% | 107 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 42% | 99 | 92 |
| 26 | Clippers | 58% | 101 | 102 |