Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, April 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 46% | 96 | 84 |
 | 19 | Celtics | 54% | 97 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Bucks | 56% | 104 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 49% | 97 | 107 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Pistons | 84% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Knicks | 38% | 92 | 101 |
| 18 | Hornets | 62% | 96 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Timberwolves | 79% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Magic | 30% | 95 | 93 |
 | 27 | Bulls | 70% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | SuperSonics | 58% | 96 | 107 | |
Sunday, April 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 31% | 87 | 75 |
| 12 | Nets | 69% | 93 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 31% | 89 | 114 |
 | 23 | Raptors | 69% | 95 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 36% | 103 | 85 |
| 2 | Kings | 64% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Mavericks | 48% | 103 | 107 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 82% | 101 | 88 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 29 | Clippers | 18% | 89 | 79 |
Saturday, April 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 57% | 109 | 99 |
| 15 | SuperSonics | 43% | 107 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 56% | 99 | 102 |
| 27 | Wizards | 44% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 80% | 99 | 101 |
| 30 | Magic | 20% | 88 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 44% | 100 | 99 |
| 25 | Hawks | 56% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 97 | 80 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 45% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 29% | 96 | 92 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 71% | 103 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 94 | 100 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 66% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 46% | 89 | 69 |
| 20 | Jazz | 54% | 90 | 82 |
Friday, April 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 32% | 92 | 83 |
| 22 | 76ers | 68% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 30% | 93 | 91 |
| 14 | Heat | 70% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 41% | 95 | 80 |
| 18 | Hornets | 59% | 98 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 21% | 83 | 66 |
| 7 | Pistons | 79% | 93 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 21% | 84 | 74 |
| 1 | Spurs | 79% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 27% | 86 | 80 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 73% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 44% | 98 | 116 |
| 28 | Bulls | 56% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 39% | 93 | 103 |
| 10 | Rockets | 61% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 66% | 105 | 96 |
| 25 | Suns | 34% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 33% | 96 | 95 |
| 5 | Lakers | 67% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 54% | 95 | 92 |
| 16 | Warriors | 46% | 94 | 74 |
Thursday, April 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 11% | 89 | 81 |
| 9 | Nets | 89% | 104 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 22% | 97 | 94 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 78% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 34% | 98 | 94 |
| 1 | Kings | 66% | 103 | 86 |
Wednesday, April 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 34% | 94 | 82 |
| 22 | Knicks | 66% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 35% | 94 | 101 |
| 15 | Heat | 65% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 60% | 90 | 94 |
| 23 | Raptors | 40% | 87 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 25% | 98 | 107 |
| 12 | Bucks | 75% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 19% | 94 | 74 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 81% | 105 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 14% | 89 | 75 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 86% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 55% | 101 | 111 |
| 25 | Suns | 45% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 34% | 91 | 81 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 58% | 96 | 102 |
| 28 | Clippers | 42% | 93 | 79 |
Tuesday, April 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 43% | 95 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 57% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 44% | 96 | 103 |
| 16 | Nets | 56% | 98 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 49% | 95 | 103 |
| 26 | Hawks | 51% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 6% | 84 | 86 |
| 5 | Pistons | 94% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 24% | 88 | 86 |
| 8 | Pacers | 76% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 25% | 104 | 108 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 75% | 113 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 21% | 92 | 91 |
| 2 | Lakers | 79% | 102 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 22% | 95 | 91 | |
| 3 | Kings | 78% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 51% | 93 | 90 |
| 15 | Warriors | 49% | 92 | 97 |
Monday, April 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grizzlies | 54% | 94 | 81 |
| 19 | Jazz | 46% | 93 | 92 |
Sunday, April 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 49% | 96 | 90 |
| 22 | Raptors | 51% | 97 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 51% | 98 | 99 |
| 11 | Rockets | 49% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 55% | 100 | 102 |
| 28 | Wizards | 45% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 37% | 94 | 82 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 63% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 40% | 94 | 95 |
| 1 | Lakers | 60% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 35% | 86 | 61 |
| 5 | Pistons | 65% | 90 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 29% | 92 | 89 |
| 17 | Nets | 71% | 99 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 29% | 96 | 88 | |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 71% | 103 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 56% | 95 | 97 |
| 27 | Clippers | 44% | 93 | 92 |
Saturday, April 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 34% | 90 | 86 |
| 21 | 76ers | 66% | 95 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 51% | 97 | 103 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 49% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 56% | 95 | 97 |
| 27 | Bulls | 44% | 94 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 16% | 99 | 103 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 84% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hornets | 34% | 90 | 94 | |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 95 | 81 |
Friday, April 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hawks | 62% | 103 | 95 |
| 30 | Magic | 38% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 44% | 96 | 106 |
| 20 | Celtics | 56% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 23% | 85 | 64 |
| 7 | Pacers | 77% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 34% | 90 | 83 |
| 19 | Nets | 66% | 96 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 26% | 86 | 84 |
| 6 | Pistons | 74% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 14% | 91 | 73 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 86% | 104 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 23% | 93 | 99 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 77% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 41% | 96 | 110 |
| 28 | Bulls | 59% | 98 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 27% | 97 | 89 |
| 13 | Bucks | 73% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 36% | 92 | 100 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 64% | 96 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 91 | 94 |
| 15 | Jazz | 33% | 85 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 47% | 104 | 97 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 53% | 105 | 86 | |
Thursday, April 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 89 | 88 |
| 21 | 76ers | 58% | 91 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kings | 37% | 106 | 117 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 110 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 26% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Lakers | 74% | 100 | 93 |
Wednesday, March 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 94 | 105 |
| 21 | Celtics | 52% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 55% | 96 | 103 | |
| 26 | Wizards | 45% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 58% | 99 | 109 |
| 30 | Magic | 42% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 27% | 92 | 78 |
| 6 | Pacers | 73% | 99 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 53% | 97 | 100 |
| 25 | Hawks | 47% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 35% | 91 | 85 |
| 17 | Raptors | 65% | 96 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 15% | 86 | 99 |
| 7 | Pistons | 85% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 24% | 95 | 83 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 76% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 39% | 95 | 89 |
| 3 | Spurs | 61% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 76 | |
| 16 | Jazz | 66% | 94 | 89 |
Tuesday, March 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 47% | 92 | 71 |
| 22 | 76ers | 53% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 53% | 97 | 86 |
| 11 | Bucks | 47% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 16% | 97 | 109 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 84% | 110 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 42% | 101 | 119 | |
| 13 | Nuggets | 58% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 20% | 94 | 88 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 80% | 104 | 107 |