Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, April 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Mavericks | 63% | 110 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Lakers | 74% | 100 | 93 |
Wednesday, March 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 94 | 105 |
 | 21 | Celtics | 52% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 55% | 96 | 103 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bulls | 58% | 99 | 109 |
 | 30 | Magic | 42% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bucks | 27% | 92 | 78 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 53% | 97 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Raptors | 65% | 96 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Pistons | 85% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 24% | 95 | 83 | |
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 76% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 39% | 95 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hornets | 34% | 89 | 76 | |
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Tuesday, March 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 47% | 92 | 71 |
| 22 | 76ers | 53% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 53% | 97 | 86 |
| 11 | Bucks | 47% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Mavericks | 84% | 110 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 42% | 101 | 119 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 20% | 94 | 88 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 80% | 104 | 107 |
Monday, March 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 95 | 91 |
 | 24 | Knicks | 49% | 94 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 29% | 91 | 84 |
| 20 | Nets | 71% | 98 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 27% | 89 | 96 |
| 14 | Heat | 73% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 27 | Hawks | 39% | 96 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 53% | 92 | 94 |
| 10 | Rockets | 47% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 17% | 87 | 93 |
| 3 | Spurs | 83% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 34% | 96 | 95 |
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Sunday, March 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 54% | 95 | 94 |
| 17 | Raptors | 46% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 75% | 111 | 118 |
| 30 | Magic | 25% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 41% | 95 | 111 |
| 11 | Bucks | 59% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 29% | 87 | 80 |
| 5 | Pacers | 71% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 41% | 93 | 65 |
| 21 | Celtics | 59% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 25% | 93 | 77 |
| 19 | Warriors | 75% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 13% | 97 | 92 |
| 1 | Kings | 87% | 110 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 18% | 91 | 84 |
| 3 | Lakers | 82% | 102 | 91 |
Saturday, March 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 32% | 94 | 88 |
| 28 | Hawks | 68% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 45% | 93 | 104 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 55% | 94 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 15% | 85 | 85 |
| 4 | Pistons | 85% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 12% | 85 | 76 |
| 1 | Spurs | 88% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 39% | 93 | 83 |
| 19 | Jazz | 61% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 35% | 95 | 108 | |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 63% | 100 | 98 |
| 27 | Clippers | 37% | 96 | 82 |
Friday, March 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 43% | 93 | 71 |
| 23 | 76ers | 57% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 75% | 100 | 107 |
| 30 | Magic | 25% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 46% | 92 | 101 |
| 25 | Knicks | 54% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 51% | 102 | 118 |
| 14 | Heat | 49% | 101 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 46% | 93 | 93 | |
| 22 | Celtics | 54% | 95 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 37% | 93 | 99 |
| 16 | Hornets | 63% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 35% | 90 | 86 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 65% | 95 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 59% | 100 | 115 |
| 29 | Bulls | 41% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 37% | 97 | 73 |
| 3 | Lakers | 63% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 28% | 94 | 78 |
| 18 | Warriors | 72% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 38% | 100 | 86 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 62% | 104 | 102 | |
Thursday, March 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 76 | |
| 29 | Hawks | 43% | 96 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pistons | 35% | 85 | 75 |
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 46% | 99 | 103 |
| 27 | Clippers | 54% | 100 | 94 |
Wednesday, March 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 33% | 90 | 94 |
| 19 | 76ers | 67% | 95 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 62% | 99 | 105 |
| 30 | Magic | 38% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 52% | 97 | 111 |
| 25 | Knicks | 48% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 39% | 98 | 99 |
| 6 | Pacers | 61% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 23% | 84 | 89 |
| 9 | Rockets | 77% | 93 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 48% | 98 | 92 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 52% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 25% | 91 | 85 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 75% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 31% | 94 | 77 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 69% | 100 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 37% | 103 | 91 |
| 3 | Lakers | 63% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 42% | 98 | 89 |
| 20 | Warriors | 58% | 101 | 98 |
Tuesday, March 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 36% | 96 | 103 |
| 20 | Cavaliers | 64% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 55% | 92 | 81 |
| 14 | Hornets | 45% | 90 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 46% | 91 | 81 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 54% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 28% | 90 | 86 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 72% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 67% | 92 | 84 | |
| 29 | Bulls | 33% | 87 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 28% | 92 | 77 |
| 17 | Jazz | 72% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 20% | 99 | 112 |
| 1 | Kings | 80% | 110 | 101 |
Monday, March 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 54% | 101 | 98 |
| 21 | 76ers | 46% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 16% | 84 | 77 |
| 5 | Pacers | 84% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 32% | 95 | 84 |
| 24 | Knicks | 68% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 26% | 97 | 80 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 74% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 40% | 88 | 93 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 91 | 85 |
Sunday, March 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 54% | 100 | 101 |
| 17 | Nets | 46% | 99 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 27% | 95 | 77 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 73% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 46% | 98 | 96 |
| 26 | Clippers | 54% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 47% | 96 | 101 |
| 27 | Wizards | 53% | 97 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 63% | 95 | 96 |
| 19 | Cavaliers | 37% | 91 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 36% | 90 | 121 |
| 14 | Hornets | 64% | 95 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 25% | 93 | 95 |
| 1 | Kings | 75% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 13% | 95 | 67 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 87% | 109 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 20% | 98 | 103 |
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 108 | 104 |
Saturday, March 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 40% | 89 | 69 |
| 16 | Heat | 60% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 52% | 95 | 87 |
| 29 | Hawks | 48% | 94 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 39% | 90 | 95 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 61% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 49% | 94 | 81 |
| 30 | Bulls | 51% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 16% | 87 | 87 |
| 3 | Spurs | 84% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 58% | 101 | 111 |
| 25 | Suns | 42% | 99 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 26% | 94 | 73 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 102 | 92 |
Friday, March 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 45% | 100 | 84 |
| 29 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 29% | 87 | 96 |
| 21 | Raptors | 71% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 45% | 92 | 65 | |
| 24 | Knicks | 55% | 94 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 40% | 92 | 97 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 60% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 46% | 96 | 94 |
| 6 | Pacers | 54% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 36% | 97 | 91 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 64% | 101 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 29% | 91 | 75 |
| 5 | Pistons | 71% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 23% | 100 | 104 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 77% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 58% | 98 | 93 |
| 25 | Suns | 42% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 15% | 97 | 100 |
| 2 | Lakers | 85% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 59% | 93 | 84 |
| 23 | Warriors | 41% | 91 | 90 |