Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, March 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bucks | 20% | 99 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 67% | 92 | 84 | |
 | 29 | Bulls | 33% | 87 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 28% | 90 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Timberwolves | 54% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Pistons | 55% | 92 | 81 |
| 14 | Hornets | 45% | 90 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Monday, March 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Mavericks | 54% | 101 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 16% | 84 | 77 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Knicks | 68% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, March 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 20% | 98 | 103 |
 | 3 | Lakers | 80% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Magic | 13% | 95 | 67 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 87% | 109 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 25% | 93 | 95 |
| 1 | Kings | 75% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 36% | 90 | 121 |
| 14 | Hornets | 64% | 95 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 63% | 95 | 96 |
| 19 | Cavaliers | 37% | 91 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Heat | 47% | 96 | 101 |
| 27 | Wizards | 53% | 97 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 26 | Clippers | 54% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 27% | 95 | 77 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 73% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 54% | 100 | 101 |
| 17 | Nets | 46% | 99 | 98 | |
Saturday, March 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 49% | 94 | 81 |
| 30 | Bulls | 51% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 40% | 89 | 69 |
| 16 | Heat | 60% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 52% | 95 | 87 |
| 29 | Hawks | 48% | 94 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 39% | 90 | 95 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 61% | 94 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Celtics | 16% | 87 | 87 |
| 3 | Spurs | 84% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 58% | 101 | 111 |
| 25 | Suns | 42% | 99 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 26% | 94 | 73 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 102 | 92 |
Friday, March 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 45% | 92 | 65 | |
| 24 | Knicks | 55% | 94 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 45% | 100 | 84 |
| 29 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 29% | 87 | 96 |
| 21 | Raptors | 71% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 40% | 92 | 97 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 60% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 46% | 96 | 94 |
| 6 | Pacers | 54% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 36% | 97 | 91 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 64% | 101 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 29% | 91 | 75 |
| 5 | Pistons | 71% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 23% | 100 | 104 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 77% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 58% | 98 | 93 |
| 25 | Suns | 42% | 96 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 15% | 97 | 100 |
| 2 | Lakers | 85% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 59% | 93 | 84 |
| 23 | Warriors | 41% | 91 | 90 |
Thursday, March 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 39% | 90 | 86 |
| 7 | Spurs | 61% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 33% | 97 | 97 | |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 67% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 44% | 88 | 89 |
| 9 | Nets | 56% | 89 | 71 | |
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 49% | 100 | 100 |
| 21 | Celtics | 51% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 34% | 99 | 85 |
| 22 | Warriors | 66% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 72% | 107 | 106 |
| 26 | Clippers | 28% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 13% | 98 | 111 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 87% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 34% | 89 | 80 |
| 16 | Hornets | 66% | 94 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 39% | 87 | 81 |
| 20 | Raptors | 61% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 85 | 71 |
| 5 | Pacers | 78% | 94 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 74% | 107 | 108 |
| 29 | Wizards | 26% | 98 | 114 |
Tuesday, March 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 42% | 99 | 110 |
| 23 | Suns | 58% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 27% | 88 | 79 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 73% | 96 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 95 | 100 |
| 11 | Bucks | 65% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 55% | 102 | 118 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 45% | 100 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 45% | 92 | 83 | |
| 17 | Heat | 55% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 55% | 99 | 77 |
| 10 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 97 | 110 |
| 21 | Knicks | 69% | 103 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 30% | 93 | 87 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 70% | 100 | 111 |
Monday, March 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 23% | 88 | 99 |
| 8 | Rockets | 77% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 61% | 93 | 80 |
| 24 | Warriors | 39% | 90 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 15% | 98 | 110 |
| 2 | Lakers | 85% | 111 | 113 |
Sunday, March 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 57% | 107 | 101 |
| 26 | Clippers | 43% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 36% | 93 | 75 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 64% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 53% | 91 | 95 | |
| 17 | Heat | 47% | 90 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 31% | 94 | 87 |
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 24% | 89 | 92 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 76% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 31% | 98 | 103 |
| 11 | Bucks | 69% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 58% | 95 | 104 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 42% | 92 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 24% | 84 | 69 |
| 7 | Pistons | 76% | 93 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 34% | 91 | 84 |
| 22 | Raptors | 66% | 96 | 101 |
Saturday, March 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 26% | 92 | 84 |
| 13 | Hornets | 74% | 100 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 49% | 99 | 111 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 45% | 103 | 115 | |
| 26 | Magic | 55% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 68% | 101 | 88 |
| 29 | Bulls | 32% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 32% | 89 | 80 |
| 8 | Rockets | 68% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 64% | 106 | 113 |
| 22 | Suns | 36% | 102 | 90 |
Friday, March 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 40% | 96 | 124 |
| 29 | Hawks | 60% | 99 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 40% | 93 | 94 |
| 20 | 76ers | 60% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 61% | 95 | 99 |
| 19 | Celtics | 39% | 91 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 21% | 85 | 76 |
| 10 | Nets | 79% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 41% | 97 | 74 | |
| 17 | Heat | 59% | 100 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 38% | 98 | 86 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 22% | 94 | 89 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 78% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 37% | 100 | 117 |
| 11 | Bucks | 63% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 21% | 86 | 74 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 45% | 92 | 99 |
| 23 | Suns | 55% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 61% | 100 | 81 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 96 | 83 |
Thursday, March 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 28% | 104 | 102 |
| 1 | Kings | 72% | 112 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 30% | 88 | 86 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 70% | 95 | 97 |
Wednesday, March 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 37% | 99 | 99 |
| 28 | Magic | 63% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 46% | 92 | 106 |
| 23 | Raptors | 54% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 30% | 91 | 97 |
| 13 | Nets | 70% | 97 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 14% | 85 | 65 |
| 6 | Pistons | 86% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 31% | 91 | 84 |
| 12 | Hornets | 69% | 98 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 23% | 95 | 80 |
| 10 | Bucks | 77% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 15% | 88 | 90 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 36% | 90 | 77 |
| 20 | Jazz | 64% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 94 | 79 |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 57% | 101 | 117 |
| 21 | Celtics | 43% | 98 | 109 |