Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, March 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 39% | 90 | 86 | |
| 7 | Spurs | 61% | 93 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SuperSonics | 33% | 97 | 97 | |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 67% | 102 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 44% | 88 | 89 | |
| 9 | Nets | 56% | 89 | 71 | |
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 34% | 99 | 85 | |
| 22 | Warriors | 66% | 104 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 72% | 107 | 106 | |
| 26 | Clippers | 28% | 100 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 12% | 98 | 111 | |
| 3 | Mavericks | 88% | 113 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 35% | 89 | 80 | |
| 16 | Hornets | 65% | 94 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 39% | 87 | 81 | |
| 20 | Raptors | 61% | 91 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 85 | 71 | |
| 5 | Pacers | 78% | 94 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 74% | 107 | 108 | |
| 29 | Wizards | 26% | 99 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 49% | 100 | 100 | |
| 21 | Celtics | 51% | 101 | 104 | |
Tuesday, March 16, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 27% | 88 | 79 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 73% | 96 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 30% | 93 | 87 | |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 70% | 99 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 97 | 110 | |
| 21 | Knicks | 69% | 103 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 55% | 99 | 77 | |
| 10 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 45% | 92 | 83 | |
| 17 | Heat | 55% | 94 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 55% | 102 | 118 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 45% | 101 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 95 | 100 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 66% | 100 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 42% | 99 | 110 | |
| 23 | Suns | 58% | 101 | 98 | |
Monday, March 15, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 15% | 98 | 110 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 85% | 111 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 61% | 93 | 80 | |
| 24 | Warriors | 39% | 90 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 23% | 88 | 99 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 77% | 97 | 97 | |
Sunday, March 14, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 53% | 91 | 95 | |
| 17 | Heat | 47% | 90 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 34% | 91 | 84 | |
| 22 | Raptors | 66% | 96 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 24% | 84 | 69 | |
| 7 | Pistons | 76% | 93 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 58% | 95 | 104 | |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 42% | 92 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 31% | 98 | 103 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 69% | 104 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 31% | 94 | 87 | |
| 1 | Kings | 69% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 36% | 93 | 75 | |
| 15 | Nuggets | 64% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 58% | 108 | 101 | |
| 26 | Clippers | 42% | 105 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 24% | 89 | 92 | |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 76% | 97 | 83 | |
Saturday, March 13, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 64% | 106 | 113 | |
| 22 | Suns | 36% | 102 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 32% | 88 | 80 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 68% | 94 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 68% | 101 | 88 | |
| 29 | Bulls | 32% | 95 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 26% | 92 | 84 | |
| 13 | Hornets | 74% | 100 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SuperSonics | 45% | 103 | 115 | |
| 26 | Magic | 55% | 105 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 48% | 99 | 111 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 52% | 100 | 102 | |
Friday, March 12, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 62% | 100 | 81 | |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 96 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 40% | 92 | 94 | |
| 20 | 76ers | 60% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pacers | 62% | 95 | 99 | |
| 19 | Celtics | 38% | 91 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 20% | 85 | 76 | |
| 10 | Nets | 80% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SuperSonics | 41% | 97 | 74 | |
| 17 | Heat | 59% | 99 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 41% | 96 | 124 | |
| 29 | Hawks | 59% | 99 | 138 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 38% | 98 | 86 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 102 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 22% | 94 | 89 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 78% | 103 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 37% | 100 | 117 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 63% | 104 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 21% | 86 | 74 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 96 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 45% | 92 | 99 | |
| 23 | Suns | 55% | 94 | 90 | |
Thursday, March 11, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 30% | 88 | 86 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 70% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 28% | 104 | 102 | |
| 1 | Kings | 72% | 112 | 120 | |
Wednesday, March 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 94 | 79 | |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 36% | 90 | 77 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 64% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 14% | 88 | 90 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 101 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 23% | 95 | 80 | |
| 10 | Bucks | 77% | 104 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 31% | 91 | 84 | |
| 12 | Hornets | 69% | 98 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 14% | 85 | 65 | |
| 6 | Pistons | 86% | 98 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 30% | 91 | 97 | |
| 13 | Nets | 70% | 97 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 47% | 92 | 106 | |
| 23 | Raptors | 53% | 93 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 37% | 99 | 99 | |
| 28 | Magic | 63% | 103 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 57% | 101 | 117 | |
| 21 | Celtics | 43% | 99 | 109 | |
Tuesday, March 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 39% | 91 | 89 | |
| 27 | Bulls | 61% | 94 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 57% | 100 | 117 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 43% | 98 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 21% | 82 | 84 | |
| 3 | Pacers | 79% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 39% | 97 | 87 | |
| 22 | Knicks | 61% | 100 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 28% | 94 | 89 | |
| 15 | Heat | 72% | 101 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 47% | 90 | 88 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 53% | 91 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 25% | 91 | 85 | |
| 6 | Rockets | 75% | 100 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Warriors | 18% | 96 | 92 | |
| 1 | Kings | 82% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 101 | 105 | |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 44% | 99 | 92 | |
Monday, March 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 49% | 96 | 83 | |
| 20 | Jazz | 51% | 97 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 23% | 99 | 90 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 77% | 108 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 51% | 98 | 108 | |
| 28 | Hawks | 49% | 97 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 49% | 96 | 92 | |
| 22 | 76ers | 51% | 97 | 97 | |
Sunday, March 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pacers | 62% | 95 | 103 | |
| 17 | Nuggets | 38% | 91 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 53% | 93 | 76 | |
| 25 | Raptors | 47% | 92 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 39% | 96 | 98 | |
| 6 | Rockets | 61% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 53% | 99 | 99 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 47% | 98 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 35% | 93 | 88 | |
| 5 | Lakers | 65% | 98 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 72% | 109 | 107 | |
| 28 | Magic | 28% | 102 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 43% | 95 | 95 | |
| 14 | Warriors | 57% | 97 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 56% | 95 | 86 | |
| 26 | SuperSonics | 44% | 93 | 65 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 96 | 71 | |
| 20 | Clippers | 59% | 99 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 21% | 93 | 80 | |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 79% | 103 | 77 | |
Saturday, March 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 55% | 101 | 98 | |
| 19 | Clippers | 45% | 100 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 66% | 101 | 96 | |
| 17 | Heat | 34% | 96 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 36% | 90 | 88 | |
| 21 | 76ers | 64% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 54% | 101 | 97 | |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 46% | 100 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 53% | 94 | 97 | |
| 15 | Nuggets | 47% | 93 | 66 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 55% | 93 | 107 | |
| 20 | Suns | 45% | 91 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 37% | 88 | 70 | |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 92 | 91 | |
Friday, March 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 45% | 99 | 96 | |
| 28 | Magic | 55% | 101 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 46% | 92 | 78 | |
| 14 | Warriors | 54% | 93 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 24% | 100 | 91 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 76% | 109 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pacers | 58% | 89 | 96 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 42% | 87 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 36% | 94 | 100 | |
| 7 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 37% | 89 | 112 | |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 63% | 94 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 29% | 94 | 88 | |
| 11 | Hornets | 71% | 101 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 32% | 95 | 90 | |
| 23 | Celtics | 68% | 101 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 44% | 90 | 109 | |
| 26 | Raptors | 56% | 92 | 103 | |