Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 53% | 93 | 76 | |
 | 25 | Raptors | 47% | 92 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Mavericks | 39% | 96 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 53% | 99 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 35% | 93 | 88 | |
 | 5 | Lakers | 65% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Magic | 28% | 102 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Celtics | 21% | 93 | 80 |
 | 2 | Timberwolves | 79% | 103 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Pistons | 56% | 95 | 86 |
| 26 | SuperSonics | 44% | 93 | 65 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, March 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 66% | 101 | 96 |
 | 17 | Heat | 34% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 55% | 101 | 98 |
| 19 | Clippers | 45% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Bulls | 36% | 90 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bucks | 54% | 101 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 53% | 94 | 97 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 47% | 93 | 66 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 92 | 91 |
Friday, March 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 28 | Magic | 55% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 44% | 90 | 109 |
| 26 | Raptors | 56% | 92 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 32% | 95 | 90 |
| 23 | Celtics | 68% | 101 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 29% | 94 | 88 |
| 11 | Hornets | 71% | 101 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 37% | 89 | 112 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 63% | 94 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 36% | 94 | 100 |
| 7 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pacers | 58% | 89 | 96 |
| 19 | Jazz | 42% | 87 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 24% | 100 | 91 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 76% | 109 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 46% | 92 | 78 | |
| 14 | Warriors | 54% | 93 | 74 |
Thursday, March 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 73% | 101 | 114 |
| 23 | 76ers | 27% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 97 | 98 |
| 19 | Heat | 57% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 59% | 91 | 83 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 88 | 68 |
Wednesday, March 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 49% | 94 | 97 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 43% | 91 | 70 |
| 30 | Wizards | 57% | 93 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 63% | 106 | 105 |
| 29 | Magic | 37% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hawks | 32% | 94 | 80 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 68% | 100 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 39% | 91 | 77 |
| 24 | Knicks | 61% | 94 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 25% | 92 | 97 |
| 13 | Hornets | 75% | 101 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 32% | 99 | 97 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 68% | 105 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 22% | 91 | 84 | |
| 6 | Spurs | 78% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 36% | 93 | 96 |
| 8 | Rockets | 64% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nets | 51% | 94 | 74 | |
| 21 | Suns | 49% | 93 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 57% | 97 | 101 |
| 20 | Clippers | 43% | 95 | 94 |
Tuesday, March 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 35% | 85 | 89 |
| 19 | Heat | 65% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 65% | 102 | 93 |
| 25 | Hawks | 35% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SuperSonics | 24% | 103 | 96 | |
| 2 | Mavericks | 76% | 112 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 52% | 95 | 95 | |
| 17 | Nuggets | 48% | 94 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 15% | 99 | 106 |
| 1 | Kings | 85% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 47% | 91 | 96 |
| 11 | Warriors | 53% | 92 | 88 |
Monday, March 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 38% | 99 | 96 |
| 23 | Celtics | 62% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 61% | 99 | 106 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cavaliers | 51% | 99 | 81 |
| 29 | Bulls | 49% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 36% | 89 | 81 |
| 7 | Spurs | 64% | 94 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 49% | 89 | 86 |
| 18 | Jazz | 51% | 90 | 94 |
Sunday, February 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 49% | 89 | 91 |
| 30 | Raptors | 51% | 90 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 25% | 94 | 104 |
| 11 | Bucks | 75% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 29% | 92 | 97 | |
| 6 | Rockets | 71% | 99 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 36% | 94 | 100 |
| 4 | Nets | 64% | 99 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 70% | 94 | 74 |
| 26 | 76ers | 30% | 88 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 37% | 96 | 96 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Suns | 18% | 96 | 94 |
| 1 | Kings | 82% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 59% | 98 | 100 |
| 22 | Clippers | 41% | 95 | 88 |
Saturday, February 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 24% | 86 | 86 |
| 4 | Nets | 76% | 94 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 70% | 104 | 122 |
| 27 | Wizards | 30% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 33% | 96 | 104 |
| 25 | Hawks | 67% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 29% | 84 | 74 |
| 14 | Pacers | 71% | 91 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 35% | 94 | 92 | |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 65% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warriors | 53% | 99 | 81 |
| 29 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 95 | 91 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 81% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 33% | 90 | 92 |
| 7 | Spurs | 67% | 95 | 117 |
Friday, February 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Raptors | 40% | 89 | 75 |
| 23 | Celtics | 60% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Cavaliers | 49% | 102 | 112 |
| 27 | Magic | 51% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 43% | 90 | 77 |
| 13 | Hornets | 57% | 92 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 20% | 85 | 83 |
| 7 | Pistons | 80% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 32% | 93 | 81 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 68% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 40% | 99 | 104 |
| 9 | Bucks | 60% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 85 | 85 |
| 6 | Rockets | 70% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 35% | 99 | 104 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 65% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 22% | 92 | 102 |
| 1 | Kings | 78% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 42% | 98 | 94 |
| 21 | Clippers | 58% | 101 | 96 |
Thursday, February 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 39% | 94 | 87 |
| 28 | Wizards | 61% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 47% | 98 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 53% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 48% | 104 | 103 |
| 4 | Lakers | 52% | 105 | 101 |
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 101 | 106 |
| 24 | Celtics | 49% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 45% | 89 | 76 |
| 30 | Raptors | 55% | 91 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 22% | 95 | 93 |
| 11 | Hornets | 78% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 91 | 68 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 29% | 94 | 99 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 71% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 67% | 95 | 107 |
| 28 | Bulls | 33% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 27% | 89 | 84 |
| 8 | Rockets | 73% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 48% | 102 | 112 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 52% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 95 |
| 20 | Suns | 65% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 37% | 95 | 93 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 63% | 99 | 92 | |
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 98 | 94 |
| 28 | Magic | 51% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 35% | 90 | 96 |
| 13 | Pacers | 65% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 19% | 81 | 74 |
| 5 | Nets | 81% | 92 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 39% | 90 | 75 |
| 26 | Hawks | 61% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 12 | Bucks | 52% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 20% | 102 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 80% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 30% | 83 | 77 |
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 86 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 60% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 99 |
| 2 | Kings | 82% | 105 | 107 |
Monday, February 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 53% | 91 | 76 |
| 22 | 76ers | 47% | 90 | 66 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 58% | 98 | 100 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 42% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 89 | 89 |
| 21 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 96 | 106 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 100 | 109 |