Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, February 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Celtics | 48% | 89 | 91 |
 | 30 | Raptors | 52% | 90 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Heat | 25% | 94 | 104 |
 | 11 | Bucks | 75% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 29% | 92 | 97 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 35% | 94 | 100 |
| 4 | Nets | 65% | 99 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 69% | 94 | 74 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 37% | 96 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Pistons | 59% | 98 | 100 |
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Saturday, February 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 24% | 86 | 86 |
| 4 | Nets | 76% | 95 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 69% | 103 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 33% | 96 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 29% | 84 | 74 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 35% | 93 | 92 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Mavericks | 81% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 32% | 90 | 92 |
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Friday, February 27, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Raptors | 39% | 88 | 75 |
| 23 | Celtics | 61% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 22 | Cavaliers | 49% | 102 | 112 |
| 27 | Magic | 51% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 43% | 90 | 77 |
| 13 | Hornets | 57% | 93 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 21% | 85 | 83 |
| 7 | Pistons | 79% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 31% | 93 | 81 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 69% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 41% | 99 | 104 |
| 9 | Bucks | 59% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 85 | 85 |
| 6 | Rockets | 70% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 36% | 99 | 104 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 64% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 18 | Jazz | 22% | 92 | 102 |
| 1 | Kings | 78% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 43% | 98 | 94 |
| 21 | Clippers | 57% | 101 | 96 |
Thursday, February 26, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 39% | 94 | 87 |
| 28 | Wizards | 61% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 48% | 98 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 52% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 48% | 104 | 103 |
| 4 | Lakers | 52% | 105 | 101 |
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 101 | 106 |
| 24 | Celtics | 49% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 44% | 89 | 76 |
| 30 | Raptors | 56% | 90 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 22% | 95 | 93 |
| 11 | Hornets | 78% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 38% | 91 | 68 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 29% | 94 | 99 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 71% | 101 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 67% | 95 | 107 |
| 28 | Bulls | 33% | 90 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Cavaliers | 26% | 89 | 84 |
| 8 | Rockets | 74% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 49% | 102 | 112 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 51% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 34% | 93 | 95 |
| 20 | Suns | 66% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 39% | 96 | 93 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 61% | 99 | 92 | |
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 98 | 94 |
| 28 | Magic | 51% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Warriors | 35% | 90 | 96 |
| 13 | Pacers | 65% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Raptors | 19% | 81 | 74 |
| 5 | Nets | 81% | 92 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 76ers | 39% | 90 | 75 |
| 26 | Hawks | 61% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 12 | Bucks | 52% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 20% | 102 | 91 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 80% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 30% | 84 | 77 |
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 86 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 60% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 99 |
| 2 | Kings | 82% | 105 | 107 |
Monday, February 23, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 53% | 91 | 76 |
| 22 | 76ers | 47% | 90 | 66 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 58% | 98 | 100 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 42% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 43% | 90 | 89 |
| 21 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 96 | 106 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 100 | 109 |
Sunday, February 22, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 39% | 94 | 92 |
| 23 | Knicks | 61% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 70% | 97 | 96 |
| 27 | Raptors | 30% | 91 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 30% | 84 | 80 |
| 9 | Pacers | 70% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 46% | 91 | 94 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 54% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 49% | 100 | 113 |
| 25 | Wizards | 51% | 101 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 16% | 90 | 87 |
| 8 | Pistons | 84% | 103 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 59% | 101 | 104 |
| 21 | Suns | 41% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 21% | 83 | 121 |
| 7 | Rockets | 79% | 94 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 33% | 97 | 87 |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 67% | 102 | 108 | |
Saturday, February 21, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 34% | 90 | 84 | |
| 5 | Nets | 66% | 95 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 51% | 95 | 81 |
| 23 | Heat | 49% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 57% | 97 | 105 |
| 27 | Bulls | 43% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Clippers | 31% | 99 | 105 |
| 15 | Bucks | 69% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 33% | 95 | 88 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 67% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 40% | 93 | 84 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SuperSonics | 39% | 99 | 92 | |
| 14 | Warriors | 61% | 102 | 94 |
Friday, February 20, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 62% | 94 | 96 |
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 90 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 61% | 104 | 98 |
| 30 | Magic | 39% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 41% | 90 | 92 |
| 22 | Knicks | 59% | 93 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 36% | 90 | 92 |
| 18 | Heat | 64% | 94 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 65% | 90 | 91 | |
| 28 | Raptors | 35% | 85 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 70% | 96 | 87 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 30% | 89 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 40% | 91 | 88 |
| 7 | Pistons | 60% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 28% | 93 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 72% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 63% | 103 | 91 |
| 26 | Bulls | 37% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 20% | 92 | 88 |
| 6 | Lakers | 80% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 93 | 94 |
| 13 | Warriors | 64% | 97 | 93 |
Thursday, February 19, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 45% | 101 | 75 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 55% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 76ers | 35% | 95 | 112 |
| 16 | SuperSonics | 65% | 100 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 47% | 100 | 100 |
| 21 | Clippers | 53% | 101 | 102 |
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 51% | 99 | 77 |
| 30 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 72% | 89 | 86 |
| 18 | Raptors | 28% | 82 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 54% | 105 | 114 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 46% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 22% | 88 | 92 |
| 5 | Nets | 78% | 98 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 35% | 91 | 98 |
| 13 | Pistons | 65% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 24% | 92 | 98 |
| 11 | Hornets | 76% | 100 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 38% | 95 | 86 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| 12 | Warriors | 58% | 101 | 99 |
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 30% | 87 | 89 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 70% | 94 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 55% | 91 | 88 |
| 27 | Knicks | 45% | 89 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 43% | 89 | 85 |
| 19 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 24% | 100 | 104 |
| 11 | Bucks | 76% | 109 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Suns | 22% | 92 | 95 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 47% | 103 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 53% | 104 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 49% | 91 | 73 |
| 29 | Bulls | 51% | 92 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 22% | 86 | 81 |
| 7 | Rockets | 78% | 96 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 34% | 92 | 85 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 66% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 16% | 95 | 111 |
| 1 | Kings | 84% | 107 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 94 | 86 |
| 8 | Lakers | 74% | 102 | 89 |