Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Mavericks | 53% | 105 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Raptors | 39% | 99 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Celtics | 41% | 103 | 93 |
Saturday, April 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23707271;}%20.st1{fill:%2312173F;}%20.st2{fill:%235D76A9;}%20.st3{fill:%23FFBB22;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M328.9,129.2c3.7-7,5.4-13.9,5.4-20.6c0-15.1-8.5-28.8-20.4-36.9c-16.6-11.2-41.4-12.9-58.9,8.2%20c-25.6-3.5-47.1,3.5-55.3,7c-8.2-3.3-29.7-10.4-55.3-7c-17.6-21-42.5-19.4-59-8.2c-11.9,8.1-20.4,21.7-20.4,36.9%20c0,6.7,1.7,13.6,5.4,20.6c-13.2,19.1-22.5,41.8-22.5,64.9c0,27.8,11.9,42.2,16.4,48.4c0,0,1.9-1.9,3.6-3.6%20c12.6,32,34.2,49.3,60.2,65c0,0,0.6-3.1,1-6c28,24.3,41.3,18.3,70.5,51.2c29-32.9,42.8-27.1,70.5-51.2c0.5,2.9,1,6,1,6%20c11.6-7,44.3-24.6,60.2-65c1.6,1.6,3.6,3.6,3.6,3.6c2.8-3.8,16.4-19,16.4-48.4C351.4,171.1,342.3,148.3,328.9,129.2'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M320.9,129.6c26.8-41-33.9-83.7-63.2-42.4c-29.6-5.2-54.7,5.5-58,7.1c-3.3-1.5-28.4-12.4-58-7.1%20c-29.3-41.3-90,1.4-63.2,42.4C48,171.4,51,212.7,65.2,232.1l5.8-5.8c0,0,8.3,40.3,52.2,66.8l1.6-8.7c27,28.9,51.7,28.2,74.9,54.6%20c23.2-26.4,47.9-25.7,74.9-54.6l1.6,8.7c43.9-26.5,52.2-66.8,52.2-66.8l5.8,5.8C348.4,212.6,351.4,171.4,320.9,129.6'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M200,283c0,0-21,0.3-24.2,2.3c0,0-3.6,6.3,24.2,6.2c26.5-0.1,22.6-5,22.8-5.6C222.6,285.7,213.8,283,200,283'%20/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M181.7,258.5c0,0,3.2-9.5,6.8-6.5c4.9,4.2,11.2,12.7,11.2,13.5v11.3l-7.7,0.4c-4.4,0.1-18.7,3.5-18.7,3.5%20c-19.6-48.5-8.8-85.1-3.5-98.3c-19.4,4.2-22.6-19-22.6-19c2-0.4,5,0.5,8.4,2.1c5.1,2.5,11.3,6.7,16.2,10.5l0,0%20c1.4,1.1,2.8,2.2,3.9,3.1c13.2,11.1,23.9,8.9,23.9,8.9v47.4C199.7,235.4,161.2,232.5,181.7,258.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M217.8,258.5c24.5-24.9-15.5-23.4-18-23C203.9,235.7,234.9,235.9,217.8,258.5'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M234.1,183.3c22.1,59.4-5.9,97.6-6.1,97.8c17.3-45.4,6.2-83.2-1.4-97.3c-3.9,0.4-8.6,0.2-8.6,0.2%20s5.9-3.6,9.6-7c0.3-0.3,0.6-0.5,0.9-0.8c3.1-2.8,9.1-7.7,16.5-10.6l0,0c2.7-1,5.5-1.8,8.5-2.1C253.5,163.4,251.4,183.1,234.1,183.3%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M269,106.4c0,0,9-22.5,36.6-17c0,0-25.3-16.7-42.9,13.4c0,0-25.2-11.8-62.9,4.5c0,0-35.4-12.5-62.3-5.4%20c0,0-15.7-27.2-37.8-16S89,123,92.8,129.7c0,0-36.7,37.3-22.9,83.4l7.3-9.2c0,0,10.5,50.3,37.7,66.1l1.6-12.4%20c0,0,28.4,34.2,61.7,48.8c3.1,1.5,20.9,10.3,21.3,14.6v-23.9c0,0-23.1,1.9-29.2-8.8c-4.2-7.2-30.8-54.7-17.6-104.4%20c0,0-12.8-1.9-15.2-23.5c0,0-9.5-4.7-21.4-3.7c0,0,21.2-6.7,41,1c19.9,7.7,25.1,27.2,38.7,18.6l3.7-55.1l4.2,55.3%20c13.4,8.7,18.8-11,38.7-18.6c19.9-7.7,41-1,41-1s-8.5-6-22.1-8.7c-11.3-2.3-28.1,5-28.1,5s2.3-15.6,9.9-24%20C249.7,122,264.5,120.4,269,106.4z%20M97.6,125.5c-0.8-7.5,8.7-15,8.7-15c-3.9-4-10.8-0.6-10.8-0.6c6.2-12.1,20.1-6.2,20.1-6.2%20c-5.2-6.5-16.4-6-16.4-6C113,84,129.7,105,129.7,105C114.8,108.3,97.6,125.5,97.6,125.5z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M171.9,176c-2.1-0.7-5.6,1.5-7.6,5.3c-6.6-1.9-8.9-9-8.6-15.8l0,0C160.8,168,166.9,172.2,171.9,176'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st3'%20d='M236.6,181.4c-2.1-4-5.8-6.3-7.9-5.2c3.1-2.8,9.1-7.7,16.5-10.6l0,0C245.4,172.3,243,179.4,236.6,181.4'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 7 | Grizzlies | 47% | 97 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%231D428A;}%20.st1{fill:%23FDB927;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M350,199.9c0,82.8-67.1,149.9-149.9,149.9s-150-67.1-150-149.9S117.2,50,200.1,50S350,117.1,350,199.9'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M298.2,101.8c-26.2-26.2-61.1-40.6-98.1-40.6s-71.8,14.4-98.1,40.6c-26.2,26.2-40.6,61.1-40.6,98.1%20s14.4,71.8,40.6,98.1c26.2,26.2,61.1,40.6,98.1,40.6s71.8-14.4,98.1-40.6c26.2-26.2,40.6-61.1,40.6-98.1S324.3,128.1,298.2,101.8%20M107.2,107.1c24.8-24.8,57.7-38.5,92.8-38.5c35,0,68,13.7,92.8,38.5s38.5,57.7,38.5,92.8c0,18.9-3.9,37.1-11.4,53.8%20c-15.9-5.4-31.5-11.4-46.9-18.3c-2-0.9-4-1.8-6.1-2.7l-6-2.8l-3-1.4l-3-1.4l-6-3c-1.9-1-3.9-2-5.9-3.1l-2.9-1.5%20c-1-0.5-1.9-1.1-2.9-1.6l-5.8-3.2l-5.7-3.4c-15.2-8.9-29.9-18.9-43.7-29.8c-6.9-5.5-13.6-11.3-20-17.3c-3.2-3.1-6.3-6.2-9.3-9.3%20c-0.8-0.8-1.5-1.6-2.2-2.4c-0.8-0.8-1.4-1.6-2.2-2.5c-0.8-0.9-1.4-1.6-2.1-2.5l-0.1-0.1c-0.3-9.6-0.4-15.4-0.4-15.4l-6.5-1.5v8.8%20h-5.6V130l-7,1.6l0.1,3.4l-3.3,1.8c0.1,2.8,0.2,6.3,0.2,10.7c-2.7,4.6-31.7,54.9-53.5,70.3C69.5,212,69,206,69,199.9%20C68.9,164.9,82.5,131.9,107.2,107.1%20M279.6,264.3l-13.6,0.5l-11-28.6l2.1,1.1l6.1,3c2,1,4,1.9,6.1,2.9c0.6,0.3,1.2,0.6,1.7,0.8%20L279.6,264.3z%20M276.3,246.4c5.5,2.5,11,4.9,16.4,7.1l4.5,10.1l-13.6,0.5L276.3,246.4z%20M262,264.9l-13.8,0.5l-14.4-40.8%20c0.9,0.5,1.8,1.1,2.7,1.5l3,1.6c1.9,1.1,3.9,2.2,5.9,3.3l4.5,2.4L262,264.9z%20M244.1,265.5l-12.3,0.4l-18-53.6%20c2.8,1.8,5.5,3.6,8.3,5.3l5.8,3.6l0.8,0.5L244.1,265.5z%20M227.7,266l-12.9,0.5l-21.4-68.4c4.9,3.7,9.9,7.2,15,10.7L227.7,266z%20M210.6,266.6l-12.4,0.4l-25.3-85.4c1.8,1.5,3.6,3.1,5.4,4.6c3.2,2.7,6.4,5.3,9.7,7.8L210.6,266.6z%20M194.2,267.2l-13.8,0.5%20l-30.2-108.1c2.7,2.9,5.4,5.8,8.2,8.6c2.9,2.9,6,5.8,8.9,8.6L194.2,267.2z%20M176.4,267.8l-11.9,0.4l-16.6-63.5%20c-0.5-16.4-1-31.5-1.3-43.7L176.4,267.8z%20M160.5,268.2l-10.3,0.4c-0.7-15.1-1.3-31-1.7-46.4L160.5,268.2z%20M306,277.4%20c-0.9,1.3-1.8,2.4-2.7,3.6l-152.5-3l-0.1-1.4L306,277.4z%20M301.5,263.5l-3.5-7.8c5.8,2.3,11.6,4.5,17.5,6.7%20c-0.1,0.2-0.3,0.5-0.4,0.7L301.5,263.5z%20M139.3,167.6v8.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2v8.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2v15.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2V237h-6.2v7.5h6.2V269%20l-5.7,0.2V155h5.6v5.1H133v7.5L139.3,167.6L139.3,167.6z%20M80.3,253.8l17.1-57.6c6.9-9.2,14.5-20.8,22.5-35.2L89.3,270.5%20C85.9,265.1,82.9,259.5,80.3,253.8%20M77.9,248.1c-3-7.7-5.3-15.6-6.8-23.8c4.8-3.8,11.6-10.1,19.8-19.9L77.9,248.1z%20M123.6,162.4%20c0,11.5-0.2,25.6-0.5,40.5l-17.6,67.2l-12.2,0.4L123.6,162.4z%20M122.7,219.8c-0.5,16.6-1.1,33.9-1.9,49.8l-11.3,0.4L122.7,219.8z%20M99.3,284.1l20.6,0.8c-0.4,6.3-0.9,12.4-1.3,18c-3.9-3.2-7.8-6.5-11.3-10.1C104.5,290,101.8,287.1,99.3,284.1%20M200.1,331.1%20c-16.4,0-32.2-3-47-8.7c-0.6-8.9-1.2-19.7-1.7-31.5l-11.9-4v29.3c-1.9-1-3.8-2-5.7-3.2v-27.8l5.7,0.2v0.2h6.2l11.1,0.4l138.1,4.9%20c-0.6,0.6-1.1,1.2-1.6,1.7C268.1,317.5,235.1,331.1,200.1,331.1'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 1 | Warriors | 61% | 106 | 109 |
 | 10 | Pelicans | 39% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Bulls | 56% | 97 | 90 |
 | 18 | Bucks | 44% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Nets | 43% | 101 | 91 |
Friday, April 24, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 41% | 102 | 73 |
| 3 | Spurs | 59% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 47% | 103 | 130 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 53% | 104 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 42% | 99 | 99 |
| 14 | Wizards | 58% | 102 | 106 |
Thursday, April 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 59% | 104 | 123 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 41% | 101 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bulls | 54% | 97 | 113 |
| 18 | Bucks | 46% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 55% | 105 | 103 |
| 14 | Celtics | 45% | 103 | 95 |
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 94 | 82 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 66% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 27% | 98 | 91 |
| 7 | Hawks | 73% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 33% | 100 | 111 |
| 2 | Clippers | 67% | 106 | 107 |
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 31% | 99 | 99 |
| 5 | Rockets | 69% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 32% | 97 | 117 |
| 10 | Raptors | 68% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 25% | 99 | 91 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 75% | 108 | 99 |
Monday, April 20, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 20% | 97 | 87 |
| 1 | Warriors | 80% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 25% | 92 | 82 |
| 6 | Bulls | 75% | 101 | 91 |
Sunday, April 19, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 93 | 86 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 68% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 37% | 100 | 92 |
| 2 | Clippers | 63% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 33% | 98 | 100 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 67% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 30% | 99 | 92 |
| 11 | Hawks | 70% | 106 | 99 |
Saturday, April 18, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 24% | 92 | 91 |
| 4 | Bulls | 76% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 32% | 99 | 108 |
| 5 | Rockets | 68% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pelicans | 27% | 99 | 99 |
| 3 | Warriors | 73% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 28% | 96 | 93 |
| 8 | Raptors | 72% | 104 | 86 |
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Lakers | 52% | 106 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 40% | 101 | 85 |
| 5 | Bulls | 60% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 102 | 98 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 55% | 104 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 4 | Rockets | 71% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Grizzlies | 55% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 39% | 98 | 105 |
| 18 | Bucks | 61% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Thunder | 69% | 110 | 138 |
 | 29 | Timberwolves | 31% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 57% | 103 | 103 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 43% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 39% | 98 | 108 |
| 11 | Cavaliers | 61% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Pistons | 71% | 104 | 112 |
 | 30 | Knicks | 29% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 63% | 101 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Hornets | 27% | 98 | 87 |
| 6 | Raptors | 73% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 38% | 101 | 88 |
| 21 | Nets | 62% | 105 | 101 |
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 71% | 110 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 39% | 97 | 95 |
| 7 | Pacers | 61% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 45% | 106 | 93 |
| 10 | Celtics | 55% | 108 | 95 |
Monday, April 13, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 29% | 99 | 97 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 71% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 58% | 99 | 107 |
| 27 | 76ers | 42% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 20% | 93 | 112 |
| 18 | Hawks | 80% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bulls | 62% | 106 | 113 |
| 21 | Nets | 38% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 33% | 96 | 93 |
| 15 | Heat | 67% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 66% | 108 | 100 |
| 29 | Timberwolves | 34% | 102 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 107 | 90 |
| 14 | Thunder | 48% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 41% | 96 | 92 |
| 13 | Jazz | 59% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Lakers | 48% | 106 | 92 |
| 28 | Kings | 52% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 20% | 95 | 107 |
| 1 | Warriors | 80% | 106 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nuggets | 15% | 102 | 103 |
| 2 | Clippers | 85% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 69% | 103 | 100 |
| 26 | Hornets | 31% | 97 | 90 |