Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, February 10, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Pistons | 34% | 86 | 78 |
| 6 | Nets | 66% | 91 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Lakers | 49% | 95 | 98 |
 | 26 | Heat | 51% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Bucks | 38% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Timberwolves | 79% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Bulls | 34% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Knicks | 26% | 98 | 90 |
 | 3 | Mavericks | 74% | 106 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Raptors | 39% | 90 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10 | SuperSonics | 62% | 103 | 97 | |
Monday, February 9, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Celtics | 46% | 97 | 89 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 26 | Cavaliers | 54% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 67% | 104 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, February 8, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 62% | 104 | 98 |
 | 30 | Magic | 38% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 20% | 83 | 91 |
| 5 | Pacers | 80% | 94 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 31% | 94 | 99 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 69% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 40% | 96 | 104 |
| 19 | Knicks | 60% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Nets | 78% | 95 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 42% | 99 | 85 | |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 35% | 90 | 84 |
| 15 | Warriors | 65% | 95 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nuggets | 21% | 98 | 92 |
| 1 | Kings | 79% | 108 | 115 |
Saturday, February 7, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 44% | 91 | 76 |
| 21 | Heat | 56% | 93 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 32% | 91 | 110 |
| 18 | 76ers | 68% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 90 | 86 |
| 28 | Hawks | 41% | 88 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Cavaliers | 64% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 39% | 95 | 97 | |
| 14 | Bucks | 61% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 26% | 94 | 108 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 74% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 37% | 92 | 96 |
| 20 | Suns | 63% | 96 | 92 |
Friday, February 6, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 44% | 99 | 100 |
| 27 | Wizards | 56% | 101 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hawks | 35% | 93 | 100 |
| 21 | Celtics | 65% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 60% | 89 | 83 |
| 26 | Raptors | 40% | 86 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Magic | 18% | 91 | 99 |
| 5 | Nets | 82% | 102 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 49% | 90 | 81 |
| 15 | Hornets | 51% | 91 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 20% | 92 | 92 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 80% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 37% | 97 | 85 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 23% | 87 | 80 |
| 7 | Rockets | 77% | 96 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 91 | 87 |
| 22 | Jazz | 59% | 94 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 38% | 100 | 107 | |
| 20 | Suns | 62% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nuggets | 46% | 97 | 87 |
| 17 | Warriors | 54% | 99 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 32% | 94 | 102 |
| 1 | Kings | 68% | 100 | 94 |
Thursday, February 5, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 40% | 94 | 73 |
| 16 | 76ers | 60% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 98 | 96 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 40% | 95 | 90 | |
Wednesday, February 4, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 39% | 98 | 95 |
| 22 | Celtics | 61% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 58% | 98 | 103 |
| 29 | Wizards | 42% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 32% | 94 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 68% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Heat | 25% | 86 | 88 |
| 5 | Nets | 75% | 94 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 62% | 97 | 89 |
| 28 | Hawks | 38% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 57% | 100 | 111 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 43% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 49% | 102 | 113 |
| 16 | Hornets | 51% | 103 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 34% | 91 | 89 |
| 7 | Rockets | 66% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 29% | 91 | 95 |
| 21 | Jazz | 71% | 98 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 42% | 95 | 101 |
| 20 | Suns | 58% | 98 | 97 |
Tuesday, February 3, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 39% | 88 | 93 |
| 18 | 76ers | 61% | 91 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 49% | 90 | 90 |
| 21 | Knicks | 51% | 91 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 30% | 90 | 85 |
| 7 | Pistons | 70% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 15% | 94 | 100 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 85% | 107 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 19% | 98 | 93 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 81% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 15% | 100 | 101 | |
| 1 | Kings | 85% | 113 | 117 |
Monday, February 2, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 26% | 90 | 72 |
| 6 | Pacers | 74% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 55% | 89 | 102 |
| 22 | Heat | 45% | 88 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 45% | 97 | 101 |
| 27 | Hawks | 55% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nets | 52% | 93 | 91 | |
| 14 | Hornets | 48% | 92 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 35% | 95 | 101 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 65% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 95 | 97 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 63% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 63% | 91 | 83 |
| 18 | Jazz | 37% | 87 | 65 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 92 | 79 |
| 23 | Suns | 42% | 90 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 28% | 98 | 97 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 72% | 105 | 109 | |
Sunday, February 1, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 49% | 96 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 46% | 95 | 84 |
| 22 | Raptors | 54% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 22% | 88 | 101 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 98 | 106 |
Saturday, January 31, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 24% | 100 | 107 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 76% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nets | 41% | 86 | 88 | |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 89 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Clippers | 35% | 102 | 115 |
| 21 | Magic | 65% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 51% | 98 | 83 |
| 28 | Hawks | 49% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Suns | 36% | 93 | 105 |
| 20 | Knicks | 64% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 34% | 90 | 78 |
| 8 | Pistons | 66% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 28% | 89 | 94 |
| 10 | Hornets | 72% | 96 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 21% | 86 | 98 |
| 5 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 15% | 83 | 81 |
| 2 | Spurs | 85% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 22% | 92 | 95 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 63% | 108 | 110 |
| 14 | SuperSonics | 37% | 104 | 103 | |
Friday, January 30, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 51% | 92 | 82 | |
| 22 | 76ers | 49% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 53% | 94 | 100 |
| 30 | Wizards | 47% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 57% | 90 | 90 |
| 24 | Raptors | 43% | 87 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 40% | 95 | 92 |
| 19 | Celtics | 60% | 98 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 39% | 95 | 88 |
| 23 | Heat | 61% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 33% | 93 | 85 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 67% | 98 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 30% | 96 | 95 |
| 12 | Bucks | 70% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 101 | 97 |
| 18 | Lakers | 44% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 28% | 93 | 81 |
| 14 | Warriors | 72% | 100 | 101 |
Thursday, January 29, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 59% | 99 | 89 | |
| 21 | Magic | 41% | 96 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Hawks | 56% | 95 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 35% | 94 | 96 |
| 2 | Spurs | 65% | 99 | 91 |
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 55% | 93 | 106 |
| 18 | Celtics | 45% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 49% | 98 | 104 |
| 30 | Wizards | 51% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 46% | 93 | 93 |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 54% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 19% | 86 | 79 |
| 5 | Pacers | 81% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 38% | 87 | 84 |
| 25 | Raptors | 62% | 91 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 100 |
| 15 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 95 | 88 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 70% | 101 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 52% | 96 | 99 |
| 6 | Rockets | 48% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 23% | 94 | 99 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 77% | 103 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 55% | 102 | 88 |
| 20 | Jazz | 45% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 32% | 102 | 82 | |
| 11 | Lakers | 68% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 57% | 98 | 90 |
| 17 | Warriors | 43% | 96 | 97 |