Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 13, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Hornets | 55% | 103 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Nets | 14% | 102 | 113 |
 | 6 | Raptors | 86% | 117 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 55% | 105 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Thunder | 54% | 106 | 86 |
 | 16 | Timberwolves | 46% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Heat | 40% | 101 | 108 |
 | 18 | Bucks | 60% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 35% | 105 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Pistons | 20% | 93 | 77 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, January 12, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Pelicans | 55% | 109 | 104 |
| 30 | Nets | 45% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bulls | 49% | 103 | 89 |
 | 25 | Knicks | 51% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Lakers | 14% | 98 | 94 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Mavericks | 54% | 105 | 113 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 14% | 101 | 107 |
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 47% | 103 | 97 |
| 24 | 76ers | 53% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Celtics | 69% | 110 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 58% | 110 | 105 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 42% | 107 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 45% | 102 | 95 |
| 10 | Thunder | 55% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 60% | 112 | 86 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 28% | 101 | 96 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 8 | Clippers | 72% | 109 | 105 |
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 26% | 98 | 99 |
| 11 | Wizards | 74% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 43% | 106 | 106 |
| 6 | Raptors | 57% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 65% | 109 | 117 |
| 30 | Nets | 35% | 103 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 26% | 105 | 114 |
| 3 | Rockets | 74% | 114 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 21% | 97 | 109 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 51% | 103 | 92 |
| 7 | Jazz | 49% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 113 | 108 |
| 26 | Lakers | 44% | 111 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Heat | 8% | 96 | 95 |
| 1 | Warriors | 92% | 115 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 49% | 104 | 94 |
| 19 | Kings | 51% | 105 | 100 |
Monday, January 9, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 47% | 106 | 110 |
| 24 | Knicks | 53% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Mavericks | 46% | 102 | 92 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 54% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 46% | 104 | 109 |
| 12 | Bulls | 54% | 105 | 94 |
Sunday, January 8, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 43% | 104 | 107 |
| 11 | Bucks | 57% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 27% | 99 | 86 |
| 8 | Clippers | 73% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 52% | 111 | 129 |
| 6 | Raptors | 48% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 42% | 96 | 79 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 58% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 74% | 113 | 120 |
| 29 | Suns | 26% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 47% | 107 | 125 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 108 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 82% | 115 | 117 |
| 24 | Kings | 18% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 51% | 110 | 95 |
| 27 | Lakers | 49% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 54% | 107 | 105 |
| 30 | Nets | 46% | 105 | 95 |
Saturday, January 7, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 34% | 103 | 109 |
| 14 | Pacers | 66% | 108 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 30% | 102 | 108 |
| 5 | Celtics | 70% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 55% | 105 | 118 |
| 16 | Bulls | 45% | 103 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 36% | 108 | 106 |
| 10 | Thunder | 64% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 61% | 103 | 94 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 39% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 46% | 100 | 97 |
| 19 | Mavericks | 54% | 101 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 23% | 97 | 85 |
| 2 | Spurs | 77% | 107 | 102 |
Friday, January 6, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 61% | 112 | 100 |
| 23 | Magic | 39% | 108 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Timberwolves | 42% | 105 | 105 |
| 14 | Wizards | 58% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cavaliers | 78% | 114 | 116 |
| 30 | Nets | 22% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 22% | 99 | 106 |
| 4 | Celtics | 78% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 35% | 104 | 116 |
| 10 | Bucks | 65% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 55% | 106 | 106 |
| 25 | Kings | 45% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 15% | 99 | 128 |
| 1 | Warriors | 85% | 114 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 54% | 107 | 100 |
| 29 | Lakers | 46% | 106 | 127 |
Thursday, January 5, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 29% | 103 | 109 |
| 15 | Pacers | 71% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 39% | 102 | 114 |
| 13 | Pistons | 61% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 42% | 99 | 93 |
| 6 | Raptors | 58% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 42% | 101 | 99 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 58% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 25% | 106 | 116 |
| 3 | Rockets | 75% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 35% | 101 | 102 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 65% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 67% | 109 | 127 |
| 21 | Nuggets | 33% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 36% | 109 | 109 |
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 64% | 114 | 118 |
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 51% | 105 | 111 |
| 23 | Magic | 49% | 104 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Thunder | 43% | 104 | 112 |
| 10 | Hornets | 57% | 107 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 58% | 108 | 105 |
| 25 | Knicks | 42% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 28% | 100 | 106 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 72% | 108 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Heat | 39% | 101 | 107 |
| 22 | Kings | 61% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 10% | 101 | 117 |
| 1 | Warriors | 90% | 118 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 42% | 100 | 106 |
| 13 | Clippers | 58% | 103 | 115 |
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Timberwolves | 56% | 106 | 91 |
| 27 | 76ers | 44% | 104 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 37% | 99 | 104 |
| 5 | Celtics | 63% | 104 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 43% | 101 | 121 |
| 12 | Pistons | 57% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 43% | 100 | 105 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 57% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 36% | 100 | 82 |
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 54% | 105 | 90 |
| 28 | Suns | 46% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 45% | 108 | 120 |
| 18 | Nuggets | 55% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 65% | 107 | 102 |
| 29 | Lakers | 35% | 102 | 116 |
Monday, January 2, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Thunder | 41% | 105 | 94 |
| 10 | Bucks | 59% | 108 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 22% | 102 | 82 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 112 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 71% | 107 | 101 |
| 30 | Nets | 29% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 41% | 104 | 115 |
| 25 | Knicks | 59% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 51% | 102 | 111 |
| 16 | Bulls | 49% | 101 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 25% | 106 | 91 |
| 4 | Rockets | 75% | 115 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 29% | 103 | 98 |
| 11 | Clippers | 71% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 11% | 105 | 119 |
| 1 | Warriors | 89% | 121 | 127 |
Sunday, January 1, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 36% | 100 | 104 |
| 11 | Pacers | 64% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 53% | 100 | 107 |
| 23 | Heat | 47% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 64% | 102 | 112 |
| 15 | Hawks | 36% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 105 | 95 |
| 14 | Timberwolves | 61% | 109 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 73% | 114 | 123 |
| 30 | Lakers | 27% | 105 | 114 |
Saturday, December 31, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 55% | 100 | 112 |
| 22 | Kings | 45% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 56% | 107 | 121 |
| 8 | Hornets | 44% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 42% | 101 | 116 |
| 11 | Bulls | 58% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 48% | 106 | 88 |
| 20 | Thunder | 52% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 21% | 97 | 86 |
| 7 | Jazz | 79% | 108 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Knicks | 20% | 105 | 122 |
| 3 | Rockets | 80% | 117 | 129 |