Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, November 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Heat | 69% | 116 | 111 |
 | 26 | Hornets | 31% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Pistons | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Magic | 104 | ||
 | 15 | Nets | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Thunder | 73% | 120 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
 | 19 | Pelicans | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 57% | 109 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Lakers | 134 | ||
Monday, November 13, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Knicks | 98 | ||
 | 1 | Celtics | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Raptors | 74% | 117 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Bulls | 109 | ||
 | 11 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, November 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 22% | 107 | 107 |
| 7 | Knicks | 78% | 118 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 94 | ||
| 15 | Nets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 32% | 110 | 105 |
| 10 | Clippers | 68% | 117 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 126 | ||
| 3 | 76ers | 137 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 35% | 107 | 108 |
| 21 | Bulls | 65% | 112 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 104 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 62% | 118 | 136 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 38% | 114 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 118 | ||
| 30 | Spurs | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 36% | 112 | 111 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23F79E1E;}%20.st1{fill:%23E46025;}%20.st2{fill:%23B65B27;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st0'%20points='20.3,339.6%20190,246.7%2074.9,339.6%20214.5,259.4%20212.3,275.5%20235.6,262.6%20288.1,312.3%20316.1,228.2%20351.6,223.2%20336,174.6%20369,145.9%20325.2,127.4%20337.2,76.4%20296.9,94.9%20277.9,49.3%20243.8,83.3%20187.7,53.9%20177.6,109.1%20125.8,120.3%20156.5,138.9%20125.6,154.4%20151.8,156.6%2044,240.5%20152.5,182.8%2036,271.4%20159.9,206.9%2027.7,306.4%20173.5,228.6%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M330.8,175.4c-1.9,46.6-41.3,82.8-87.9,80.9c-46.6-1.9-82.8-41.3-80.9-87.9s41.3-82.8,87.9-80.9%20C296.5,89.4,332.7,128.7,330.8,175.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M256.7,244.7c-46.6-1.9-82.8-41.3-80.9-87.9c0.9-21.6,9.8-40.9,23.8-55.2c-21.7,14.5-36.4,38.8-37.6,66.8%20c-1.9,46.6,34.3,86,80.9,87.9c25,1,48-8.9,64.2-25.7C292.7,240.2,275.3,245.5,256.7,244.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M330.9,172.8c0-3-0.1-6-0.4-9c-4.9-3.4-10.6-6-17.6-6.9c-1.3-0.2-2.5-0.3-3.8-0.4c-0.8-5.6-2.1-11-3.7-16.4%20c0.9,0.1,1.7,0.1,2.6,0.2c5.9,0.5,11.8,1.1,17.6,1.9c-0.8-2.2-1.7-4.3-2.6-6.3c-6.5-1-13.1-1.7-19.8-2.3h-0.1%20c-2.2-5.5-4.7-10.6-7.8-15.7c4.3-0.9,8.2-2.6,11.3-5.6c-1.5-1.6-3.3-3.2-5-4.6c-2.7,2.5-6.2,3.8-10.3,4.4c-0.6-0.9-1.3-1.7-1.9-2.5%20c-5.7-7.5-12.4-13.8-19.7-19c-6.4-1.8-13-2.9-19.9-3.3c-0.4,0-0.7,0-1.2,0c12.8,5.1,24.3,13.6,33.5,24.9%20c-8.8-0.8-18.9-3.8-28.9-6.7c-3-0.9-5.9-1.7-8.6-2.5c-17.1-4.7-30.2-5.5-40-4.6c-7.3,4.2-13.9,9.4-19.7,15.5%20c10.6-4.5,32.1-12,58.2-4.8c2.7,0.7,5.6,1.6,8.6,2.5c11.5,3.4,24.4,7.2,35.6,7.3c3.1,4.6,5.7,9.4,7.9,14.5%20c-2.2-0.1-4.4-0.2-6.6-0.2c-54.2-0.9-100.8,15.3-126.6,41.2c0.2,5.2,0.7,10.2,1.7,15.1c7.3-10.5,18-19.9,31.9-27.8%20c26.3-14.7,61.1-22.6,98.1-21.8c1.3,0,2.5,0.1,3.8,0.1c1.9,5.4,3.3,10.9,4.2,16.6c-23.8,1-39.3,15.9-57.1,31.8%20c-15.9,14.3-35.4,28.5-63.8,37c2.6,3.3,5.6,6.4,8.7,9.2c26.9-10.7,44.6-27.6,59.6-41.1c17.1-15.3,31.8-29.9,53.2-30.7%20c0.5,5.9,0.5,12,0,18.1c-2.9,33.1-22,61.2-48.2,75c6.6-0.6,13.2-2,19.3-4.2c2.1-1.7,4.2-3.5,6.1-5.5c17.1-16.8,27.8-39.9,29.9-64.7%20c0.5-6.2,0.5-12.4,0-18.5c1.1,0.1,2.2,0.2,3.3,0.4C320.5,164.6,326.3,168.4,330.9,172.8'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 5 | Suns | 64% | 117 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 116 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 104 | 110 |
| 22 | Lakers | 62% | 109 | 116 |
Saturday, November 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 49% | 111 | 97 |
| 21 | Magic | 51% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 94 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 33% | 111 | 117 |
| 13 | Hawks | 67% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cavaliers | 118 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 110 | ||
Friday, November 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 43% | 118 | 124 |
| 28 | Wizards | 57% | 121 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 107 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 43% | 109 | 101 |
| 24 | Rockets | 57% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 127 | ||
| 10 | Grizzlies | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 76% | 118 | 117 |
| 30 | Spurs | 24% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 126 | ||
| 9 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lakers | 33% | 108 | 122 |
| 6 | Suns | 67% | 114 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Thunder | 98 | ||
| 21 | Kings | 105 | ||
Thursday, November 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 46% | 120 | 124 |
| 22 | Pacers | 54% | 121 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 120 | ||
| 21 | Magic | 119 | ||
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 45% | 118 | 132 |
| 26 | Hornets | 55% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 118 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 134 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 60% | 116 | 103 |
| 5 | 76ers | 40% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 93 | ||
| 14 | Nets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 105 |
| 8 | Knicks | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 116 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 52% | 110 | 94 |
| 24 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 11 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 22% | 109 | 118 |
| 9 | Bucks | 78% | 120 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 101 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 53% | 113 | 120 |
| 18 | Thunder | 47% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 40% | 111 | 105 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 60% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 118 | ||
| 20 | Kings | 121 | ||
Monday, November 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 73% | 116 | 120 |
| 27 | Pistons | 27% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 152 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 49% | 114 | 117 |
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 128 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 146 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 54% | 117 | 129 |
| 15 | Nets | 46% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 107 | ||
| 17 | Heat | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 46% | 113 | 97 |
| 8 | Knicks | 54% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 48% | 112 | 97 |
| 25 | Rockets | 52% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 54% | 119 | 117 |
| 21 | Thunder | 46% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 116 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 134 | ||
Sunday, November 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 120 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 28 | Spurs | 39% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 104 | ||
| 12 | Cavaliers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 17% | 110 | 118 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 83% | 124 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 100 | ||
Saturday, November 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 100 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 41% | 120 | 125 |
| 23 | Pacers | 59% | 123 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 51% | 119 | 123 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 49% | 118 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 124 | ||
| 16 | Nets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 53% | 115 | 89 |
| 25 | Rockets | 47% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 95 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 25% | 104 | 101 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 75% | 114 | 123 |
Friday, November 3, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 55% | 117 | 116 |
| 24 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| 7 | Bucks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 31% | 111 | 114 |
| 15 | Heat | 69% | 118 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 70% | 113 | 141 |
| 21 | Thunder | 30% | 106 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 56% | 111 | 113 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 108 | 115 |
Thursday, November 2, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 27% | 106 | 116 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 73% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 115 | ||
| 23 | Jazz | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 21% | 110 | 132 |
| 3 | Suns | 79% | 122 | 121 |
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 109 | 110 |
| 28 | Pistons | 52% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| 19 | Raptors | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 28% | 115 | 121 |
| 15 | Hawks | 72% | 124 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 104 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 155 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 109 |
| 14 | Heat | 59% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 95 | ||
| 10 | Knicks | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 47% | 112 | 110 |
| 21 | Thunder | 53% | 113 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 53% | 110 | 89 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 47% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 116 | 109 |
| 24 | Jazz | 49% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 101 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 35% | 111 | 125 |
| 11 | Lakers | 65% | 117 | 130 |