Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Magic | 81% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 31 | Lakers | 20% | 87 | 81 |
 | 8 | Pistons | 80% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | SuperSonics | 64% | 107 | 115 | |
Wednesday, February 9, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Celtics | 58% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bucks | 40% | 99 | 110 |
 | 27 | Raptors | 60% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 33 | Bobcats | 18% | 88 | 87 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Lakers | 35% | 92 | 104 |
| 22 | Nets | 65% | 97 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Heat | 63% | 102 | 116 |
 | 32 | Knicks | 37% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 10 | Timberwolves | 66% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bulls | 25% | 90 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 23% | 89 | 91 | |
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Tuesday, February 8, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 99 | 104 |
| 33 | Bobcats | 16% | 86 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Magic | 75% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 34% | 98 | 91 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 52% | 102 | 97 |
| 26 | Bucks | 48% | 101 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 57% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 19% | 93 | 107 |
 | 5 | Mavericks | 81% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 19 | Jazz | 33% | 94 | 87 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 67% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 54% | 108 | 125 | |
| 11 | Kings | 46% | 107 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 17% | 89 | 91 | |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 83% | 102 | 108 | |
Monday, February 7, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 49% | 99 | 104 |
| 27 | Wizards | 51% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 39% | 93 | 97 |
| 23 | Nets | 61% | 96 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 54% | 98 | 108 |
| 36 | Hawks | 46% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 21% | 94 | 96 |
| 6 | Heat | 79% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 32% | 96 | 102 |
| 19 | Jazz | 68% | 101 | 99 |
Sunday, February 6, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 122 |
| 25 | Raptors | 39% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 42% | 95 | 104 |
| 21 | 76ers | 58% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 33% | 98 | 103 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 67% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 25% | 93 | 102 |
| 10 | Rockets | 75% | 101 | 103 |
Saturday, February 5, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 60% | 89 | 85 |
| 26 | Nets | 40% | 85 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 40% | 102 | 94 |
| 27 | Wizards | 60% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 66% | 97 | 84 |
| 36 | Hawks | 34% | 92 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 25% | 92 | 97 |
| 7 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 33% | 97 | 92 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 67% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 26% | 93 | 91 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 74% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 23% | 89 | 92 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 77% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 11% | 98 | 106 |
| 4 | Suns | 89% | 113 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kings | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 16% | 93 | 99 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 84% | 106 | 113 | |
Friday, February 4, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 41% | 102 | 100 |
| 26 | Raptors | 59% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 25% | 94 | 85 |
| 22 | 76ers | 75% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 54% | 99 | 94 |
| 13 | Pacers | 46% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| 17 | Celtics | 58% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 41% | 95 | 90 |
| 24 | Bucks | 59% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 39% | 94 | 119 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 61% | 98 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Knicks | 25% | 97 | 115 |
| 12 | Kings | 75% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 29% | 93 | 89 |
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 38% | 92 | 82 | |
| 31 | Warriors | 62% | 96 | 90 |
Thursday, February 3, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 32% | 97 | 88 |
| 7 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 32% | 89 | 106 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 68% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 78% | 99 | 103 |
| 29 | Lakers | 22% | 89 | 91 |
Wednesday, February 2, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 32% | 93 | 89 | |
| 17 | Celtics | 68% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 51% | 97 | 118 |
| 21 | 76ers | 49% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 31% | 93 | 98 |
| 11 | Pacers | 69% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 17% | 85 | 84 |
| 6 | Pistons | 83% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 70% | 101 | 90 |
| 35 | Hornets | 30% | 94 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 51% | 106 | 108 | |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 49% | 105 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 45% | 96 | 94 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 54% | 102 | 111 |
| 31 | Warriors | 46% | 100 | 107 |
Tuesday, February 1, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 58% | 98 | 105 |
| 26 | Wizards | 42% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Cavaliers | 45% | 97 | 102 |
| 14 | Magic | 55% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 40% | 89 | 97 |
| 20 | Nets | 60% | 92 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 59% | 101 | 86 |
| 25 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 60% | 103 | 97 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 40% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heat | 32% | 100 | 104 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 68% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 27% | 94 | 76 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 73% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 26% | 93 | 109 |
| 19 | Jazz | 74% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 34% | 100 | 106 | |
| 9 | Kings | 66% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 97 | 79 |
| 29 | Lakers | 55% | 99 | 92 |
Monday, January 31, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 39% | 96 | 97 |
| 16 | Celtics | 61% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 51% | 96 | 88 |
| 23 | 76ers | 49% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 64% | 102 | 79 |
| 34 | Hawks | 36% | 98 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 70% | 94 | 98 |
| 36 | Hornets | 30% | 88 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 63% | 97 | 103 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 37% | 93 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 34% | 93 | 89 |
| 20 | Clippers | 66% | 98 | 96 |
Sunday, January 30, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 35% | 95 | 95 |
| 8 | Heat | 65% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 68% | 109 | 123 | |
| 21 | Raptors | 32% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 37% | 98 | 94 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 87 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 59% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 32% | 96 | 90 |
| 28 | Lakers | 68% | 102 | 101 |
Saturday, January 29, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 46% | 103 | 103 |
| 27 | Wizards | 54% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 19% | 87 | 61 |
| 7 | Pistons | 81% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 31% | 92 | 95 |
| 11 | Pacers | 69% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 13% | 88 | 83 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 87% | 103 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 40% | 95 | 101 |
| 26 | Bulls | 60% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 76ers | 15% | 96 | 93 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 85% | 109 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 6% | 79 | 83 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 94% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 31% | 91 | 99 | |
| 15 | Jazz | 69% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 32% | 93 | 85 |
| 20 | Clippers | 68% | 99 | 96 |
Friday, January 28, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 52% | 99 | 96 |
| 26 | Knicks | 48% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 62% | 101 | 94 |
| 33 | Bobcats | 38% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 33% | 101 | 101 |
| 14 | Magic | 67% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 62% | 109 | 128 | |
| 16 | Celtics | 38% | 105 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heat | 71% | 103 | 106 |
| 34 | Hawks | 29% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 60% | 96 | 95 |
| 36 | Hornets | 40% | 93 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 29% | 94 | 91 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 71% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 45% | 99 | 106 |
| 25 | Bucks | 55% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kings | 35% | 95 | 117 |
| 13 | Rockets | 65% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 42% | 93 | 86 |
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 95 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 43% | 93 | 109 | |
| 30 | Lakers | 57% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SuperSonics | 63% | 105 | 88 | |
| 32 | Warriors | 37% | 101 | 85 |