Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, May 9, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Celtics | 76% | 113 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Mavericks | 38% | 111 | 119 |
 | 3 | Thunder | 62% | 115 | 110 |
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Knicks | 66% | 118 | 130 |
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 23% | 102 | 95 |
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 36% | 111 | 95 |
| 2 | Thunder | 64% | 116 | 117 |
Monday, May 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 32% | 110 | 117 |
| 6 | Knicks | 68% | 117 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Timberwolves | 33% | 105 | 106 |
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Sunday, May 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Magic | 44% | 101 | 94 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 56% | 103 | 106 |
Saturday, May 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 33% | 105 | 106 |
| 1 | Nuggets | 67% | 111 | 99 |
Friday, May 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 39% | 100 | 96 |
| 13 | Magic | 61% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 7 | Mavericks | 69% | 116 | 114 |
Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bucks | 32% | 114 | 98 |
| 10 | Pacers | 68% | 120 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 39% | 106 | 118 |
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Wednesday, May 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 21% | 100 | 84 |
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 111 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 51% | 114 | 123 |
| 15 | Clippers | 49% | 113 | 93 |
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 43% | 107 | 112 |
| 6 | Knicks | 57% | 110 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 38% | 101 | 103 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 62% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 58% | 116 | 92 |
| 21 | Bucks | 42% | 113 | 115 |
Monday, April 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 108 | 102 |
| 17 | Heat | 37% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 51% | 109 | 97 |
 | 14 | Pelicans | 49% | 108 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Lakers | 27% | 108 | 106 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 73% | 117 | 108 |
Sunday, April 28, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 40% | 108 | 97 |
| 4 | 76ers | 60% | 112 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 33% | 110 | 116 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 67% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 27% | 111 | 113 |
| 8 | Pacers | 73% | 121 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 46% | 107 | 122 |
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Saturday, April 27, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 47% | 103 | 89 |
| 16 | Magic | 53% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 47% | 108 | 106 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 53% | 110 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 109 | 104 |
| 15 | Heat | 37% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 51% | 113 | 108 |
| 10 | Lakers | 49% | 112 | 119 |
Friday, April 26, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 34% | 114 | 118 |
| 9 | Pacers | 66% | 121 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 38% | 111 | 90 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 62% | 115 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 42% | 106 | 126 |
| 8 | Suns | 58% | 109 | 109 |
Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 47% | 102 | 83 |
| 16 | Magic | 53% | 104 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 37% | 106 | 114 |
| 3 | 76ers | 63% | 111 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 48% | 112 | 112 |
| 10 | Lakers | 52% | 113 | 105 |
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 21% | 101 | 111 |
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 113 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pelicans | 38% | 108 | 92 |
| 6 | Thunder | 62% | 112 | 124 |
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 40% | 106 | 93 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 60% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 49% | 117 | 125 |
| 18 | Bucks | 51% | 118 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 46% | 113 | 96 |
| 15 | Clippers | 54% | 114 | 93 |
Monday, April 22, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 38% | 102 | 86 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 62% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 42% | 108 | 101 |
| 6 | Knicks | 58% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 35% | 111 | 99 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 65% | 116 | 101 |
Sunday, April 21, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 26% | 100 | 94 |
| 2 | Celtics | 74% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 53% | 112 | 97 |
| 21 | Clippers | 47% | 111 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 48% | 115 | 94 |
| 18 | Bucks | 52% | 116 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 44% | 107 | 92 |
| 13 | Thunder | 56% | 109 | 94 |
Saturday, April 20, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 36% | 102 | 83 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 64% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 38% | 106 | 95 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 62% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 37% | 106 | 104 |
| 3 | Knicks | 63% | 111 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 36% | 109 | 103 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 64% | 115 | 114 |
Friday, April 19, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 36% | 106 | 91 |
| 12 | Heat | 64% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 10 | Pelicans | 56% | 113 | 105 |
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 40% | 109 | 104 |
| 8 | 76ers | 60% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 18 | Bulls | 56% | 115 | 131 |
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 41% | 113 | 110 |
| 6 | Pelicans | 59% | 116 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 13 | Kings | 52% | 115 | 118 |
Sunday, April 14, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Celtics | 86% | 122 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Hornets | 16% | 99 | 120 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 84% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 32% | 118 | 115 |
| 10 | Pacers | 68% | 125 | 157 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Raptors | 16% | 102 | 103 |
| 8 | Heat | 84% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 25% | 104 | 119 |
| 5 | Knicks | 75% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bucks | 42% | 108 | 88 |
| 14 | Magic | 58% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Nets | 23% | 108 | 86 |
| 4 | 76ers | 77% | 118 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 80% | 114 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 43% | 109 | 125 |
| 1 | Timberwolves | 57% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 38% | 112 | 124 |
| 6 | Pelicans | 62% | 117 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Mavericks | 22% | 107 | 86 |
| 7 | Thunder | 78% | 118 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Pistons | 39% | 111 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 15 | Warriors | 81% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Clippers | 41% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Kings | 83% | 118 | 121 |
Friday, April 12, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 59% | 115 | 129 |
| 24 | Wizards | 41% | 112 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 36% | 107 | 113 |
| 8 | 76ers | 64% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 14% | 102 | 98 |
| 2 | Celtics | 86% | 118 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 43% | 115 | 120 |
| 11 | Cavaliers | 57% | 118 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 27% | 106 | 107 |
| 6 | Knicks | 73% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 19% | 103 | 103 |
| 10 | Heat | 81% | 116 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 72% | 115 | 123 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 28% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 24% | 107 | 106 |
| 1 | Timberwolves | 76% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 30% | 109 | 107 |
| 9 | Thunder | 70% | 116 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 69% | 115 | 120 |
| 22 | Spurs | 31% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 21% | 105 | 107 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 79% | 117 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pelicans | 45% | 113 | 114 |
| 7 | Warriors | 55% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 66% | 112 | 116 |
| 28 | Blazers | 34% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Jazz | 17% | 106 | 110 |
| 17 | Clippers | 83% | 121 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 55% | 115 | 108 |
| 13 | Kings | 45% | 113 | 107 |