Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, December 17, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 42% | 101 | 83 | |
| 22 | Clippers | 58% | 104 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 42% | 98 | 99 | |
| 17 | SuperSonics | 58% | 101 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 17% | 84 | 70 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 83% | 96 | 73 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 55% | 105 | 103 | |
| 19 | Celtics | 45% | 103 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 18% | 88 | 73 | |
| 9 | Pistons | 82% | 99 | 77 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 49% | 98 | 98 | |
| 27 | Hawks | 51% | 99 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 34% | 89 | 74 | |
| 12 | Nets | 66% | 94 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 14% | 87 | 94 | |
| 5 | Pacers | 86% | 101 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 45% | 91 | 89 | |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 55% | 92 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Heat | 28% | 87 | 76 | |
| 14 | 76ers | 72% | 95 | 87 | |
Tuesday, December 16, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 40% | 96 | 94 | |
| 11 | Nuggets | 60% | 99 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jazz | 59% | 95 | 87 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 41% | 92 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 41% | 94 | 104 | |
| 22 | Knicks | 59% | 97 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 42% | 93 | 79 | |
| 28 | Heat | 58% | 96 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 39% | 88 | 75 | |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 61% | 92 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings | 61% | 102 | 100 | |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 39% | 99 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 43% | 99 | 88 | |
| 29 | Bulls | 57% | 101 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | SuperSonics | 41% | 98 | 91 | |
| 20 | Suns | 59% | 101 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 40% | 99 | 106 | |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 102 | 99 | |
Monday, December 15, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 60% | 101 | 80 | |
| 24 | Clippers | 40% | 97 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 25% | 88 | 67 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 75% | 96 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 18% | 95 | 94 | |
| 4 | Mavericks | 82% | 106 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Cavaliers | 21% | 86 | 85 | |
| 5 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 46% | 96 | 116 | |
| 15 | Celtics | 54% | 97 | 95 | |
Sunday, December 14, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 13% | 96 | 102 | |
| 1 | Kings | 87% | 110 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Heat | 33% | 90 | 90 | |
| 20 | Raptors | 67% | 95 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 44% | 99 | 102 | |
| 18 | SuperSonics | 56% | 101 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 35% | 90 | 87 | |
| 23 | Knicks | 65% | 94 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 36% | 90 | 94 | |
| 11 | 76ers | 64% | 94 | 86 | |
Saturday, December 13, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 46% | 100 | 91 | |
| 24 | Clippers | 54% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 53% | 102 | 108 | |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 101 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 30% | 86 | 73 | |
| 2 | Spurs | 70% | 92 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 69% | 95 | 75 | |
| 30 | Bulls | 31% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 47% | 93 | 63 | |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 53% | 94 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 52% | 98 | 105 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 48% | 97 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 37% | 97 | 105 | |
| 25 | Hawks | 63% | 101 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 42% | 94 | 88 | |
| 23 | Knicks | 58% | 97 | 95 | |
Friday, December 12, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hornets | 47% | 97 | 96 | |
| 18 | Warriors | 53% | 98 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 40% | 94 | 86 | |
| 14 | 76ers | 60% | 97 | 77 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 58% | 96 | 110 | |
| 25 | Wizards | 42% | 93 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 31% | 90 | 111 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 69% | 96 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 54% | 95 | 88 | |
| 28 | Heat | 46% | 94 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 21% | 86 | 92 | |
| 7 | Pacers | 79% | 96 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nets | 62% | 98 | 99 | |
| 27 | Magic | 38% | 94 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | SuperSonics | 27% | 90 | 93 | |
| 9 | Pistons | 73% | 98 | 72 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 28% | 96 | 95 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 72% | 103 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kings | 63% | 101 | 100 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 37% | 97 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 28% | 104 | 110 | |
| 1 | Lakers | 72% | 111 | 93 | |
Thursday, December 11, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 48% | 89 | 71 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 52% | 90 | 67 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 54% | 97 | 111 | |
| 20 | Suns | 46% | 96 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 67% | 97 | 86 | |
| 29 | Cavaliers | 33% | 92 | 95 | |
Wednesday, December 10, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 62% | 107 | 99 | |
| 24 | Clippers | 38% | 103 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 38% | 90 | 73 | |
| 22 | Jazz | 62% | 94 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 17% | 88 | 77 | |
| 3 | Spurs | 83% | 100 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hawks | 22% | 92 | 90 | |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 78% | 101 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 31% | 98 | 89 | |
| 17 | Bucks | 69% | 105 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Magic | 47% | 97 | 95 | |
| 30 | Wizards | 53% | 98 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | SuperSonics | 23% | 92 | 112 | |
| 11 | Celtics | 77% | 101 | 126 | |
Tuesday, December 9, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 76ers | 32% | 88 | 78 | |
| 5 | Pistons | 68% | 93 | 76 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 52% | 95 | 100 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 48% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 18% | 83 | 79 | |
| 6 | Pacers | 82% | 95 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | SuperSonics | 26% | 90 | 88 | |
| 4 | Nets | 74% | 98 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 43% | 95 | 72 | |
| 25 | Heat | 57% | 97 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 54% | 99 | 98 | |
| 24 | Hawks | 46% | 98 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 27% | 92 | 98 | |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 73% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 90 | 91 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 67% | 95 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 11% | 96 | 95 | |
| 1 | Kings | 89% | 111 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 90 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 82% | 105 | 98 | |
Monday, December 8, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 43% | 93 | 102 | |
| 21 | Jazz | 57% | 95 | 80 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 74% | 98 | 96 | |
| 28 | Bulls | 26% | 90 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 30% | 96 | 85 | |
| 7 | Hornets | 70% | 102 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Suns | 51% | 101 | 98 | |
| 26 | Magic | 49% | 100 | 105 | |
Sunday, December 7, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Celtics | 37% | 95 | 116 | |
| 13 | Nuggets | 63% | 100 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 64% | 99 | 96 | |
| 28 | Clippers | 36% | 94 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | SuperSonics | 42% | 92 | 98 | |
| 23 | Raptors | 58% | 95 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 95 | 79 | |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 63% | 99 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 28% | 93 | 88 | |
| 1 | Kings | 72% | 100 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 17% | 94 | 92 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 83% | 106 | 94 | |
Saturday, December 6, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hawks | 39% | 96 | 85 | |
| 28 | Cavaliers | 61% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 27% | 90 | 88 | |
| 5 | Nets | 73% | 97 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 66% | 95 | 86 | |
| 25 | Heat | 34% | 89 | 70 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 56% | 97 | 97 | |
| 27 | Bulls | 44% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 23% | 93 | 114 | |
| 15 | Bucks | 77% | 102 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 17% | 100 | 97 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 83% | 112 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pistons | 51% | 91 | 80 | |
| 11 | Rockets | 49% | 90 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 43% | 95 | 92 | |
| 22 | Warriors | 57% | 97 | 104 | |
Friday, December 5, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 24% | 94 | 112 | |
| 1 | Kings | 76% | 102 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 38% | 90 | 87 | |
| 24 | Raptors | 62% | 94 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 37% | 92 | 110 | |
| 17 | Celtics | 63% | 97 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 32% | 92 | 86 | |
| 8 | Nets | 68% | 98 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 49% | 92 | 93 | |
| 26 | Heat | 51% | 93 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 71% | 99 | 105 | |
| 27 | Magic | 29% | 92 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 35% | 90 | 83 | |
| 7 | Hornets | 65% | 95 | 74 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 25% | 92 | 77 | |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 75% | 100 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 36% | 98 | 91 | |
| 14 | Nuggets | 64% | 103 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 27% | 95 | 67 | |
| 18 | Jazz | 73% | 102 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 39% | 93 | 81 | |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 61% | 97 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 54% | 92 | 101 | |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 46% | 90 | 94 | |
Thursday, December 4, 2003
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bulls | 26% | 91 | 82 | |
| 10 | 76ers | 74% | 99 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 45% | 106 | 114 | |
| 5 | Mavericks | 55% | 107 | 103 | |