Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, February 11, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 27 | Raptors | 54% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Heat | 74% | 103 | 97 |
 | 35 | Bobcats | 26% | 95 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 32 | Knicks | 31% | 97 | 94 |
 | 17 | Celtics | 69% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 23 | Nets | 35% | 86 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Cavaliers | 59% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 34 | Hornets | 51% | 95 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Timberwolves | 49% | 97 | 82 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 22% | 103 | 113 | |
| 2 | Suns | 78% | 113 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 51% | 106 | 115 |
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Thursday, February 10, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Magic | 81% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 31 | Lakers | 20% | 87 | 81 |
 | 8 | Pistons | 80% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kings | 36% | 103 | 107 |
| 7 | SuperSonics | 64% | 107 | 115 | |
Wednesday, February 9, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 42% | 95 | 89 |
| 17 | Celtics | 58% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 110 |
| 27 | Raptors | 60% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 44% | 95 | 98 |
| 21 | 76ers | 56% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 61% | 99 | 87 |
| 28 | Wizards | 39% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 18% | 88 | 87 |
| 13 | Pacers | 82% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Lakers | 34% | 92 | 104 |
| 22 | Nets | 66% | 97 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heat | 63% | 102 | 116 |
| 32 | Knicks | 37% | 97 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 34% | 95 | 92 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 66% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bulls | 25% | 90 | 92 |
| 9 | Rockets | 75% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 23% | 89 | 91 | |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 77% | 98 | 80 |
Tuesday, February 8, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 84% | 99 | 104 |
| 33 | Bobcats | 16% | 86 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Warriors | 25% | 94 | 113 |
| 16 | Magic | 75% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 34% | 97 | 91 |
| 14 | Cavaliers | 66% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 51% | 102 | 97 |
| 26 | Bucks | 49% | 101 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 42% | 95 | 96 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 58% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 19% | 93 | 107 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 81% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jazz | 33% | 94 | 87 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 67% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 54% | 108 | 125 | |
| 11 | Kings | 46% | 107 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 17% | 89 | 91 | |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 83% | 101 | 108 | |
Monday, February 7, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 49% | 99 | 104 |
| 27 | Wizards | 51% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 39% | 92 | 97 |
| 23 | Nets | 61% | 96 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 55% | 98 | 108 |
| 36 | Hawks | 45% | 97 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 21% | 94 | 96 |
| 6 | Heat | 79% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 33% | 96 | 102 |
| 19 | Jazz | 67% | 101 | 99 |
Sunday, February 6, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 61% | 104 | 122 |
| 25 | Raptors | 39% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 41% | 94 | 104 |
| 21 | 76ers | 59% | 97 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celtics | 33% | 97 | 103 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 67% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 25% | 93 | 102 |
| 10 | Rockets | 75% | 101 | 103 |
Saturday, February 5, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pistons | 60% | 89 | 85 |
| 26 | Nets | 40% | 86 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 40% | 102 | 94 |
| 27 | Wizards | 60% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 66% | 97 | 84 |
| 36 | Hawks | 34% | 92 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 25% | 93 | 97 |
| 7 | Heat | 75% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 33% | 97 | 92 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 67% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 26% | 93 | 91 |
| 17 | Nuggets | 74% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 23% | 88 | 92 | |
| 19 | Jazz | 77% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 11% | 97 | 106 |
| 4 | Suns | 89% | 113 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kings | 48% | 99 | 108 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 16% | 93 | 99 |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 84% | 106 | 113 | |
Friday, February 4, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 41% | 102 | 100 |
| 26 | Raptors | 59% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 25% | 94 | 85 |
| 22 | 76ers | 75% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 54% | 98 | 94 |
| 13 | Pacers | 46% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 42% | 99 | 100 |
| 17 | Celtics | 58% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Clippers | 41% | 95 | 90 |
| 24 | Bucks | 59% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 39% | 94 | 119 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 61% | 98 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Knicks | 24% | 96 | 115 |
| 12 | Kings | 76% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 29% | 93 | 89 |
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Hornets | 38% | 92 | 82 | |
| 31 | Warriors | 62% | 96 | 90 |
Thursday, February 3, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 32% | 97 | 88 |
| 7 | Heat | 68% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 32% | 89 | 106 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 68% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 78% | 99 | 103 |
| 29 | Lakers | 22% | 89 | 91 |
Wednesday, February 2, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 32% | 93 | 89 | |
| 17 | Celtics | 68% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 51% | 97 | 118 |
| 21 | 76ers | 49% | 96 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 31% | 93 | 98 |
| 11 | Pacers | 69% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 17% | 85 | 84 |
| 6 | Pistons | 83% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 70% | 101 | 90 |
| 35 | Hornets | 30% | 94 | 82 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 51% | 106 | 108 | |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 49% | 105 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 45% | 95 | 94 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kings | 53% | 101 | 111 |
| 31 | Warriors | 47% | 100 | 107 |
Tuesday, February 1, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 58% | 98 | 105 |
| 26 | Wizards | 42% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Cavaliers | 45% | 97 | 102 |
| 14 | Magic | 55% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bulls | 39% | 88 | 97 |
| 20 | Nets | 61% | 92 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 59% | 101 | 86 |
| 25 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 60% | 103 | 97 | |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 40% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heat | 32% | 100 | 104 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 68% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 26% | 94 | 76 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 74% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Bobcats | 26% | 93 | 109 |
| 19 | Jazz | 74% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SuperSonics | 34% | 100 | 106 | |
| 9 | Kings | 66% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 97 | 79 |
| 29 | Lakers | 55% | 99 | 92 |
Monday, January 31, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 40% | 96 | 97 |
| 16 | Celtics | 60% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 51% | 96 | 88 |
| 23 | 76ers | 49% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 64% | 102 | 79 |
| 34 | Hawks | 36% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 69% | 94 | 98 |
| 36 | Hornets | 31% | 88 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 63% | 97 | 103 |
| 12 | SuperSonics | 37% | 93 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 33% | 93 | 89 |
| 20 | Clippers | 67% | 98 | 96 |
Sunday, January 30, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 35% | 95 | 95 |
| 8 | Heat | 65% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 68% | 109 | 123 | |
| 21 | Raptors | 32% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 37% | 98 | 94 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 87 |
| 26 | Cavaliers | 59% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Bobcats | 32% | 96 | 90 |
| 28 | Lakers | 68% | 101 | 101 |
Saturday, January 29, 2005
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 47% | 103 | 103 |
| 27 | Wizards | 53% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Knicks | 19% | 87 | 61 |
| 7 | Pistons | 81% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 31% | 92 | 95 |
| 11 | Pacers | 69% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Hawks | 13% | 88 | 83 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 87% | 103 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Celtics | 40% | 95 | 101 |
| 26 | Bulls | 60% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 76ers | 16% | 96 | 93 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 84% | 108 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Hornets | 6% | 79 | 83 | |
| 4 | Spurs | 94% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 31% | 91 | 99 | |
| 15 | Jazz | 69% | 97 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Warriors | 32% | 93 | 85 |
| 20 | Clippers | 68% | 98 | 96 |