Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 18, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Celtics | 75% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Heat | 93 | ||
 | 23 | Pistons | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Nets | 52% | 109 | 117 |
 | 25 | Magic | 48% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Timberwolves | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Pelicans | 49% | 116 | 112 |
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Knicks | 22% | 108 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Hornets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bulls | 17% | 102 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Lakers | 138 | ||
 | 8 | Thunder | 128 | ||
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 40% | 105 | 115 |
| 23 | Pistons | 60% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 108 | ||
| 4 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 27% | 109 | 145 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| 20 | Grizzlies | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 46% | 111 | 105 |
 | 16 | Mavericks | 54% | 112 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Cavaliers | 112 | ||
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 31% | 115 | 140 |
| 1 | Warriors | 69% | 122 | 147 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 129 | ||
| 18 | Clippers | 109 | ||
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 23% | 102 | 97 |
| 9 | Pacers | 77% | 113 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 107 | ||
| 12 | 76ers | 149 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 76% | 119 | 126 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 26 | Hawks | 24% | 109 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 86 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 57% | 116 | 142 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 43% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Bulls | 100 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 107 | ||
Monday, January 14, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 59% | 110 | 102 |
| 21 | Nets | 41% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 94 | ||
| 3 | Rockets | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 30% | 110 | 108 |
| 10 | Spurs | 70% | 118 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 94 | ||
| 4 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 114 | 107 |
| 24 | Kings | 51% | 115 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 121 | ||
| 19 | Clippers | 117 | ||
Sunday, January 13, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 108 | ||
| 27 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 59% | 115 | 140 |
| 19 | Wizards | 41% | 111 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 133 | ||
| 26 | Hawks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 66% | 111 | 109 |
| 25 | Magic | 34% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 119 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 109 | 113 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 59% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 14 | Lakers | 95 | ||
Saturday, January 12, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 109 | ||
| 19 | Clippers | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 44% | 98 | 108 |
| 15 | Heat | 56% | 100 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 103 | ||
| 25 | Magic | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 51% | 118 | 106 |
| 13 | Timberwolves | 49% | 117 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 112 | ||
| 8 | Thunder | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 77% | 115 | 93 |
| 28 | Suns | 23% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 97 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 12% | 96 | 102 |
| 3 | Jazz | 88% | 112 | 110 |
Friday, January 11, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 23% | 109 | 123 |
| 11 | 76ers | 77% | 120 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 106 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 73% | 115 | 121 |
| 27 | Knicks | 27% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 105 | ||
| 2 | Raptors | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 11% | 103 | 113 |
| 3 | Rockets | 89% | 121 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 119 | ||
| 13 | Timberwolves | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 26% | 102 | 95 |
| 4 | Jazz | 74% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 96 | ||
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 10% | 103 | 109 |
| 1 | Warriors | 90% | 121 | 146 |
Thursday, January 10, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celtics | 51% | 106 | 99 |
| 15 | Heat | 49% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clippers | 100 | ||
| 7 | Nuggets | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 55% | 112 | 147 |
| 11 | Spurs | 45% | 111 | 154 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 102 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 112 | ||
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 33% | 104 | 108 |
| 4 | Celtics | 67% | 110 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 106 | ||
| 20 | Wizards | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hawks | 26% | 108 | 100 |
| 21 | Nets | 74% | 117 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 116 | ||
| 3 | Rockets | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 51% | 105 | 86 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 49% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Cavaliers | 124 | ||
| 12 | Pelicans | 140 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 18% | 104 | 94 |
| 18 | Mavericks | 82% | 117 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 93 | ||
| 5 | Jazz | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bulls | 22% | 102 | 112 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 100 | ||
| 14 | Lakers | 113 | ||
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 81% | 114 | 123 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 19% | 102 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 115 | ||
| 10 | 76ers | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 49% | 107 | 103 |
| 17 | Heat | 51% | 108 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 101 | ||
| 2 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 33% | 109 | 119 |
| 8 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 111 | ||
| 28 | Suns | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Knicks | 7% | 107 | 95 |
| 1 | Warriors | 93% | 128 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 109 | ||
| 16 | Clippers | 128 | ||
Monday, January 7, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 57% | 112 | 119 |
| 23 | Pistons | 43% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 95 | ||
| 3 | Celtics | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 49% | 112 | 113 |
| 5 | Rockets | 51% | 113 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 102 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 43% | 106 | 95 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 57% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 107 | ||
| 19 | Mavericks | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Knicks | 24% | 109 | 101 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 76% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 95 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 111 | ||
Sunday, January 6, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 117 | ||
| 27 | Bulls | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 39% | 110 | 86 |
| 13 | Timberwolves | 61% | 114 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 96 | ||
| 17 | Clippers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 68% | 114 | 82 |
| 28 | Hawks | 32% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| 7 | Thunder | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 49% | 107 | 105 |
| 2 | Raptors | 51% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 29 | Suns | 113 | ||
Saturday, January 5, 2019
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| 8 | Nuggets | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 59% | 108 | 110 |
| 23 | Pistons | 41% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 100 | ||
| 10 | 76ers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 77% | 120 | 133 |
| 30 | Cavaliers | 23% | 110 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raptors | 123 | ||
| 7 | Bucks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 32% | 101 | 88 |
| 11 | Spurs | 68% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 101 | ||
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 122 | 127 |
| 24 | Kings | 30% | 115 | 123 |