Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, January 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Nets | 23% | 101 | 100 |
 | 6 | Celtics | 77% | 112 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 59% | 108 | 109 |
 | 10 | Hornets | 41% | 105 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pistons | 82 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Magic | 21% | 98 | 79 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bucks | 95 | ||
 | 23 | Timberwolves | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Pelicans | 40% | 107 | 105 |
 | 11 | Mavericks | 60% | 111 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, January 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 91 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 47% | 104 | 82 |
 | 15 | Heat | 53% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 94 | ||
 | 10 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Knicks | 36% | 101 | 81 |
 | 14 | Bulls | 64% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 84 | ||
 | 29 | Lakers | 93 | ||
Thursday, December 31, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 120 | ||
| 11 | Pacers | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 49% | 108 | 114 |
| 7 | Rockets | 51% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 90 | ||
| 15 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 52% | 108 | 95 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 48% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 106 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Jazz | 59% | 100 | 109 |
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 122 | ||
| 11 | Hornets | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 34% | 102 | 93 |
| 22 | Magic | 66% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 112 | ||
| 6 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 37% | 102 | 91 |
| 9 | Raptors | 63% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 100 | ||
| 14 | Bulls | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 80 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 51% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 91 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 11% | 93 | 79 |
| 2 | Spurs | 89% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 103 | ||
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 24% | 101 | 110 |
| 21 | Kings | 76% | 111 | 105 |
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 52% | 106 | 96 |
| 24 | Knicks | 48% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 8 | Hawks | 121 | ||
| 7 | Rockets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 39% | 99 | 90 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 61% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 123 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 67% | 106 | 93 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 33% | 100 | 87 |
Monday, December 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 98 | ||
| 8 | Hornets | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 42% | 103 | 87 |
| 11 | Pacers | 58% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 89 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 56% | 107 | 108 |
| 18 | Wizards | 44% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 111 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 47% | 102 | 97 |
| 14 | Bulls | 53% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 93 | ||
| 9 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 95 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 26 | Suns | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 23% | 94 | 91 |
| 16 | Jazz | 77% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 103 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 122 | ||
Sunday, December 27, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 91 | ||
| 6 | Celtics | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 24% | 99 | 96 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 76% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 112 | ||
| 3 | Thunder | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 104 | 98 |
| 20 | Kings | 68% | 110 | 94 |
Saturday, December 26, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 60% | 101 | 111 |
| 26 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 98 | ||
| 8 | Hawks | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 43% | 100 | 92 |
| 11 | Hornets | 57% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 108 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 52% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 99 | ||
| 15 | Pistons | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 60% | 108 | 111 |
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 102 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 36% | 104 | 111 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 64% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 86 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 26% | 100 | 111 |
| 25 | Suns | 74% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 109 | ||
| 16 | Jazz | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 69% | 105 | 76 |
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 98 | 105 |
Friday, December 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 88 | ||
| 17 | Heat | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 28% | 101 | 105 |
| 4 | Thunder | 72% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 83 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 106 | 84 |
| 7 | Rockets | 36% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 94 | ||
| 29 | Lakers | 84 | ||
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 45% | 105 | 102 |
| 11 | Hornets | 55% | 106 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 84 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 35% | 106 | 108 |
| 10 | Pacers | 65% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 101 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 46% | 102 | 91 |
| 18 | Wizards | 54% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 119 | ||
| 28 | Nets | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 34% | 102 | 100 |
| 9 | Hawks | 66% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 100 | ||
| 26 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 106 | 108 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 24% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 89 | ||
| 19 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 36% | 104 | 104 |
| 24 | Suns | 64% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 85 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 120 |
| 29 | Lakers | 20% | 102 | 85 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 75% | 105 | 104 |
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 93 | ||
| 18 | Heat | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 46% | 104 | 99 |
| 11 | Raptors | 54% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 111 | ||
| 27 | Nuggets | 107 | ||
Monday, December 21, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 99 | ||
| 19 | Wizards | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 27% | 102 | 99 |
| 6 | Celtics | 73% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 107 | ||
| 24 | Knicks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 97 | 97 |
| 8 | Hawks | 74% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 105 | ||
| 14 | Bulls | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 42% | 105 | 95 |
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 92 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Suns | 38% | 101 | 89 |
| 16 | Jazz | 62% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 100 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 99 | ||
Sunday, December 20, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 56% | 108 | 100 |
| 28 | Nets | 44% | 105 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 109 | ||
| 18 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 10% | 94 | 86 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 90% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 101 | ||
| 22 | Suns | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 56% | 104 | 103 |
| 23 | Magic | 44% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 104 | ||
| 8 | Raptors | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 51% | 108 | 130 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 49% | 107 | 125 |