Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, February 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Hornets | 43% | 99 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Raptors | 47% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 40% | 103 | 95 |
 | 22 | Knicks | 60% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bulls | 32% | 100 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Mavericks | 64% | 108 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Lakers | 33% | 99 | 95 |
Thursday, February 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%231D428A;}%20.st1{fill:%23FDB927;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M350,199.9c0,82.8-67.1,149.9-149.9,149.9s-150-67.1-150-149.9S117.2,50,200.1,50S350,117.1,350,199.9'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M298.2,101.8c-26.2-26.2-61.1-40.6-98.1-40.6s-71.8,14.4-98.1,40.6c-26.2,26.2-40.6,61.1-40.6,98.1%20s14.4,71.8,40.6,98.1c26.2,26.2,61.1,40.6,98.1,40.6s71.8-14.4,98.1-40.6c26.2-26.2,40.6-61.1,40.6-98.1S324.3,128.1,298.2,101.8%20M107.2,107.1c24.8-24.8,57.7-38.5,92.8-38.5c35,0,68,13.7,92.8,38.5s38.5,57.7,38.5,92.8c0,18.9-3.9,37.1-11.4,53.8%20c-15.9-5.4-31.5-11.4-46.9-18.3c-2-0.9-4-1.8-6.1-2.7l-6-2.8l-3-1.4l-3-1.4l-6-3c-1.9-1-3.9-2-5.9-3.1l-2.9-1.5%20c-1-0.5-1.9-1.1-2.9-1.6l-5.8-3.2l-5.7-3.4c-15.2-8.9-29.9-18.9-43.7-29.8c-6.9-5.5-13.6-11.3-20-17.3c-3.2-3.1-6.3-6.2-9.3-9.3%20c-0.8-0.8-1.5-1.6-2.2-2.4c-0.8-0.8-1.4-1.6-2.2-2.5c-0.8-0.9-1.4-1.6-2.1-2.5l-0.1-0.1c-0.3-9.6-0.4-15.4-0.4-15.4l-6.5-1.5v8.8%20h-5.6V130l-7,1.6l0.1,3.4l-3.3,1.8c0.1,2.8,0.2,6.3,0.2,10.7c-2.7,4.6-31.7,54.9-53.5,70.3C69.5,212,69,206,69,199.9%20C68.9,164.9,82.5,131.9,107.2,107.1%20M279.6,264.3l-13.6,0.5l-11-28.6l2.1,1.1l6.1,3c2,1,4,1.9,6.1,2.9c0.6,0.3,1.2,0.6,1.7,0.8%20L279.6,264.3z%20M276.3,246.4c5.5,2.5,11,4.9,16.4,7.1l4.5,10.1l-13.6,0.5L276.3,246.4z%20M262,264.9l-13.8,0.5l-14.4-40.8%20c0.9,0.5,1.8,1.1,2.7,1.5l3,1.6c1.9,1.1,3.9,2.2,5.9,3.3l4.5,2.4L262,264.9z%20M244.1,265.5l-12.3,0.4l-18-53.6%20c2.8,1.8,5.5,3.6,8.3,5.3l5.8,3.6l0.8,0.5L244.1,265.5z%20M227.7,266l-12.9,0.5l-21.4-68.4c4.9,3.7,9.9,7.2,15,10.7L227.7,266z%20M210.6,266.6l-12.4,0.4l-25.3-85.4c1.8,1.5,3.6,3.1,5.4,4.6c3.2,2.7,6.4,5.3,9.7,7.8L210.6,266.6z%20M194.2,267.2l-13.8,0.5%20l-30.2-108.1c2.7,2.9,5.4,5.8,8.2,8.6c2.9,2.9,6,5.8,8.9,8.6L194.2,267.2z%20M176.4,267.8l-11.9,0.4l-16.6-63.5%20c-0.5-16.4-1-31.5-1.3-43.7L176.4,267.8z%20M160.5,268.2l-10.3,0.4c-0.7-15.1-1.3-31-1.7-46.4L160.5,268.2z%20M306,277.4%20c-0.9,1.3-1.8,2.4-2.7,3.6l-152.5-3l-0.1-1.4L306,277.4z%20M301.5,263.5l-3.5-7.8c5.8,2.3,11.6,4.5,17.5,6.7%20c-0.1,0.2-0.3,0.5-0.4,0.7L301.5,263.5z%20M139.3,167.6v8.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2v8.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2v15.1h-6.2v7.5h6.2V237h-6.2v7.5h6.2V269%20l-5.7,0.2V155h5.6v5.1H133v7.5L139.3,167.6L139.3,167.6z%20M80.3,253.8l17.1-57.6c6.9-9.2,14.5-20.8,22.5-35.2L89.3,270.5%20C85.9,265.1,82.9,259.5,80.3,253.8%20M77.9,248.1c-3-7.7-5.3-15.6-6.8-23.8c4.8-3.8,11.6-10.1,19.8-19.9L77.9,248.1z%20M123.6,162.4%20c0,11.5-0.2,25.6-0.5,40.5l-17.6,67.2l-12.2,0.4L123.6,162.4z%20M122.7,219.8c-0.5,16.6-1.1,33.9-1.9,49.8l-11.3,0.4L122.7,219.8z%20M99.3,284.1l20.6,0.8c-0.4,6.3-0.9,12.4-1.3,18c-3.9-3.2-7.8-6.5-11.3-10.1C104.5,290,101.8,287.1,99.3,284.1%20M200.1,331.1%20c-16.4,0-32.2-3-47-8.7c-0.6-8.9-1.2-19.7-1.7-31.5l-11.9-4v29.3c-1.9-1-3.8-2-5.7-3.2v-27.8l5.7,0.2v0.2h6.2l11.1,0.4l138.1,4.9%20c-0.6,0.6-1.1,1.2-1.6,1.7C268.1,317.5,235.1,331.1,200.1,331.1'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 1 | Warriors | 71% | 111 | 130 |
| 18 | Magic | 29% | 104 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Bucks | 30% | 101 | 107 |
 | 7 | Celtics | 70% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Thunder | 59% | 109 | 119 |
 | 19 | Pelicans | 41% | 106 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Nets | 49% | 104 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, February 24, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 28% | 100 | 103 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 72% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 34% | 99 | 105 |
| 9 | Pacers | 66% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 20% | 97 | 91 |
 | 18 | Pistons | 80% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 75% | 108 | 118 |
 | 21 | Heat | 25% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 28% | 101 | 105 |
| 6 | Raptors | 72% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 49% | 104 | 104 |
| 26 | Bulls | 51% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 27% | 98 | 119 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 73% | 107 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 56% | 109 | 116 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 44% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 19% | 99 | 87 |
| 4 | Clippers | 81% | 111 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 66% | 108 | 108 |
| 17 | Kings | 34% | 102 | 92 |
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 41% | 104 | 89 |
| 15 | Wizards | 59% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 67% | 106 | 124 |
| 30 | 76ers | 33% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 40% | 100 | 114 |
| 10 | Jazz | 60% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 49% | 108 | 114 |
| 24 | Nuggets | 51% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 27% | 101 | 104 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 73% | 109 | 112 |
Monday, February 22, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 21% | 99 | 96 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 79% | 110 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 52% | 105 | 122 |
| 21 | Knicks | 48% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 53% | 98 | 93 |
| 25 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 55% | 108 | 122 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 45% | 106 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 29% | 101 | 101 |
| 22 | Bucks | 71% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 62% | 110 | 102 |
| 11 | Hawks | 38% | 105 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 12% | 99 | 84 |
| 3 | Clippers | 88% | 115 | 124 |
Sunday, February 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 46% | 107 | 115 |
| 4 | Thunder | 54% | 108 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 111 |
| 18 | Pistons | 58% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 79% | 108 | 118 |
| 28 | Suns | 21% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 59% | 108 | 121 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 41% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 36% | 98 | 85 |
| 6 | Raptors | 64% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 56% | 103 | 105 |
| 21 | Magic | 44% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 66% | 105 | 104 |
| 27 | Nets | 34% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 22% | 98 | 103 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 78% | 108 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 35% | 103 | 115 |
| 26 | Bulls | 65% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 49% | 100 | 111 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 101 | 115 |
Saturday, February 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 31% | 98 | 117 |
| 12 | Hawks | 69% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| 25 | Heat | 45% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 46% | 104 | 103 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 54% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 46% | 108 | 115 |
| 5 | Clippers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
Friday, February 19, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 53% | 104 | 104 |
| 23 | Magic | 47% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 42% | 102 | 86 |
| 15 | Wizards | 58% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 59% | 105 | 98 |
| 28 | Nets | 41% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 34% | 103 | 101 |
| 5 | Thunder | 66% | 109 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 35% | 97 | 115 |
| 11 | Hawks | 65% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 65% | 104 | 106 |
| 26 | Bulls | 35% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 30% | 99 | 104 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 70% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 28% | 100 | 114 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 72% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 58% | 103 | 98 |
| 24 | Bucks | 42% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 65% | 111 | 116 |
| 27 | Suns | 35% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 70% | 112 | 105 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 105 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 45% | 108 | 110 |
| 17 | Kings | 55% | 110 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celtics | 52% | 102 | 93 |
| 12 | Jazz | 48% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 77% | 108 | 119 |
| 29 | Lakers | 23% | 98 | 113 |
Thursday, February 18, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 51% | 102 | 89 |
| 15 | Wizards | 49% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 17% | 98 | 95 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 83% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 45% | 103 | 86 |
| 3 | Clippers | 55% | 105 | 105 |