Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Heat | 138 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Bulls | 56% | 118 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Lakers | 110 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 60% | 111 | 104 |
 | 11 | Timberwolves | 40% | 107 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Mavericks | 137 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, March 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 67% | 107 | 120 |
 | 27 | Hornets | 33% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Pistons | 97 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Raptors | 49% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 123 | ||
 | 19 | Pelicans | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Nets | 46% | 113 | 107 |
 | 21 | Thunder | 54% | 114 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 114 | ||
| 30 | Spurs | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Bucks | 54% | 110 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Knicks | 123 | ||
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Monday, March 13, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 28 | Pistons | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 46% | 112 | 136 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 20 | Hawks | 54% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 25 | Jazz | 115 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 69% | 110 | 104 |
| 17 | Mavericks | 31% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| 29 | Rockets | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 39% | 111 | 112 |
| 8 | Warriors | 61% | 115 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 133 | ||
| 21 | Kings | 124 | ||
Sunday, March 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 122 | ||
| 5 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 76% | 112 | 114 |
| 27 | Hornets | 24% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 93 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 106 | 110 |
| 18 | Pelicans | 59% | 109 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 102 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 49% | 110 | 112 |
| 13 | Lakers | 51% | 111 | 108 |
Saturday, March 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 95 | ||
| 12 | Clippers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 55% | 110 | 119 |
| 27 | Hornets | 45% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 121 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 54% | 107 | 114 |
| 25 | Magic | 46% | 106 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 134 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 69% | 114 | 119 |
| 30 | Rockets | 31% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| 2 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 110 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 52% | 114 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 116 | ||
| 8 | Warriors | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 42% | 114 | 128 |
| 4 | Suns | 58% | 117 | 119 |
Friday, March 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 119 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 44% | 115 | 114 |
| 15 | Wizards | 56% | 117 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 115 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 36% | 106 | 124 |
| 12 | Timberwolves | 64% | 111 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| 30 | Spurs | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 58% | 112 | 112 |
| 13 | Lakers | 42% | 109 | 122 |
Thursday, March 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 113 | ||
| 28 | Pistons | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Rockets | 31% | 111 | 125 |
| 23 | Pacers | 69% | 118 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 131 | ||
| 25 | Magic | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 31% | 107 | 113 |
| 2 | Bucks | 69% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 110 | ||
| 3 | Grizzlies | 131 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 55% | 117 | 117 |
| 20 | Kings | 45% | 116 | 122 |
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 48% | 115 | 122 |
| 16 | Wizards | 52% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 93 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 54% | 105 | 104 |
| 14 | Heat | 46% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 28% | 109 | 117 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 72% | 117 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 101 | ||
| 4 | Suns | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 45% | 110 | 100 |
| 13 | Clippers | 55% | 111 | 108 |
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 83% | 118 | 119 |
| 28 | Pistons | 17% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 134 | ||
| 25 | Magic | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 22% | 102 | 112 |
| 9 | Knicks | 78% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 117 | ||
| 10 | Timberwolves | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 71% | 116 | 118 |
| 29 | Rockets | 29% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 128 | ||
| 22 | Thunder | 137 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 26% | 107 | 116 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 74% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 103 | ||
| 16 | Lakers | 112 | ||
Monday, March 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 40% | 104 | 114 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 60% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 147 | ||
| 24 | Pacers | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 128 | ||
| 12 | Heat | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 32% | 110 | 113 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 68% | 117 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 108 | ||
| 20 | Kings | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 61% | 115 | 110 |
| 28 | Pistons | 39% | 111 | 104 |
Sunday, March 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 130 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 38% | 110 | 125 |
| 19 | Bulls | 62% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 105 | ||
| 17 | Lakers | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 24% | 105 | 86 |
| 18 | Nets | 76% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 122 | ||
| 25 | Magic | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 44% | 112 | 110 |
| 30 | Rockets | 56% | 115 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 119 | ||
| 22 | Thunder | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 31% | 105 | 131 |
| 1 | Celtics | 69% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 129 | ||
| 14 | Clippers | 135 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 55% | 112 | 117 |
| 15 | Wizards | 45% | 110 | 111 |
Saturday, March 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 116 | ||
| 15 | Wizards | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 10% | 98 | 90 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 90% | 117 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 109 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Rockets | 46% | 110 | 122 |
| 28 | Spurs | 54% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 133 | ||
| 3 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 43% | 113 | 138 |
| 20 | Kings | 57% | 115 | 134 |
Friday, March 3, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 117 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 115 | 111 |
| 20 | Hawks | 64% | 120 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 115 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 53% | 108 | 122 |
| 14 | Heat | 47% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 125 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 45% | 110 | 103 |
| 22 | Thunder | 55% | 112 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Grizzlies | 97 | ||
| 5 | Nuggets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 49% | 113 | 99 |
| 8 | Warriors | 51% | 114 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 127 | ||
| 19 | Kings | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 52% | 111 | 110 |
| 15 | Lakers | 48% | 110 | 102 |
Thursday, March 2, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 108 | ||
| 10 | Wizards | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 42% | 109 | 126 |
| 14 | Mavericks | 58% | 112 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 99 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 56% | 115 | 91 |
| 8 | Warriors | 44% | 113 | 115 |