Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Heat | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Lakers | 38% | 116 | 128 |
 | 4 | Bucks | 62% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Thunder | 119 | ||
 | 8 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Mavericks | 49% | 117 | 132 |
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Monday, March 25, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Hornets | 25% | 102 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 118 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Pistons | 9% | 101 | 99 |
 | 6 | Knicks | 91% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Nets | 96 | ||
 | 25 | Raptors | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Bulls | 72% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 69% | 124 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 17 | Kings | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, March 24, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pelicans | 82% | 119 | 114 |
| 29 | Pistons | 18% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| 13 | Clippers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 51% | 106 | 84 |
| 16 | Heat | 49% | 105 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 93 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 42% | 107 | 110 |
 | 2 | Timberwolves | 58% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 145 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 150 | ||
Saturday, March 23, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 31% | 105 | 93 |
| 7 | Knicks | 69% | 112 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 109 | ||
 | 18 | Magic | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 29% | 108 | 91 |
| 20 | Hawks | 71% | 116 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 109 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 111 | 124 |
| 21 | Bulls | 36% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 119 | ||
| 14 | Rockets | 147 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 70% | 118 | 131 |
| 25 | Spurs | 30% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
Friday, March 22, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 87% | 121 | 129 |
| 29 | Pistons | 13% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 123 | ||
| 26 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 51% | 108 | 111 |
| 15 | Heat | 49% | 107 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 91 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 46% | 107 | 99 |
| 25 | Spurs | 54% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 123 | ||
| 8 | Warriors | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 77% | 116 | 125 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 94 | ||
| 16 | Lakers | 101 | ||
Thursday, March 21, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pelicans | 106 | ||
| 18 | Magic | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 69% | 121 | 102 |
| 30 | Wizards | 31% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 117 | ||
| 14 | Rockets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 35% | 112 | 108 |
| 6 | Bucks | 65% | 117 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 97 | ||
| 8 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 37% | 108 | 100 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 63% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 115 | ||
| 5 | Suns | 128 | ||
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 107 | ||
| 9 | Cavaliers | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 74% | 124 | 122 |
| 29 | Pistons | 26% | 114 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 119 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 72% | 118 | 123 |
| 24 | Raptors | 28% | 110 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 107 | ||
| 4 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 28% | 105 | 116 |
| 12 | Warriors | 72% | 113 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| 5 | Suns | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 77% | 116 | 116 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 105 | 103 |
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 24% | 100 | 92 |
| 18 | Magic | 76% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 137 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pelicans | 60% | 113 | 104 |
| 23 | Nets | 40% | 109 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| 26 | Spurs | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 55% | 107 | 115 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 45% | 106 | 112 |
Monday, March 18, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 42% | 113 | 108 |
| 19 | Pacers | 58% | 116 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 94 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 41% | 108 | 91 |
| 6 | 76ers | 59% | 111 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Timberwolves | 67% | 114 | 114 |
| 25 | Jazz | 33% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 119 | ||
| 9 | Warriors | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 32% | 109 | 111 |
| 17 | Kings | 68% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 105 | ||
| 16 | Lakers | 136 | ||
Sunday, March 17, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 140 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 67% | 114 | 104 |
| 29 | Pistons | 33% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 105 | ||
| 13 | Mavericks | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 29% | 105 | 96 |
| 19 | Magic | 71% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 130 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 49% | 112 | 115 |
| 26 | Spurs | 51% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 110 | ||
| 10 | Clippers | 93 | ||
Saturday, March 16, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 59% | 109 | 103 |
| 16 | Rockets | 41% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 100 | ||
| 19 | Pacers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 21% | 105 | 98 |
| 8 | 76ers | 79% | 117 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
| 9 | Pelicans | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 31% | 107 | 98 |
| 20 | Bulls | 69% | 114 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| 22 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 45% | 114 | 128 |
| 14 | Lakers | 55% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Timberwolves | 119 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 49% | 113 | 98 |
| 17 | Kings | 51% | 114 | 91 |
Friday, March 15, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Suns | 73% | 117 | 107 |
| 27 | Hornets | 27% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 67% | 111 | 113 |
| 25 | Raptors | 33% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 104 | ||
| 9 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 72% | 117 | 117 |
| 26 | Spurs | 28% | 108 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 122 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 124 | ||
Thursday, March 14, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 33% | 110 | 112 |
| 1 | Celtics | 67% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 126 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 30% | 108 | 119 |
| 15 | Rockets | 70% | 116 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 105 | ||
| 8 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 25% | 111 | 119 |
| 6 | Thunder | 75% | 120 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 93 | ||
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 43% | 105 | 106 |
| 19 | Magic | 57% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 132 | ||
| 18 | Pacers | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 56% | 111 | 100 |
| 15 | Heat | 44% | 109 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| 20 | Grizzlies | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 39% | 108 | 116 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 112 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 99 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 56% | 113 | 102 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 107 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 120 | ||