Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Thunder | 53% | 109 | 130 |
 | 10 | Celtics | 47% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 25% | 98 | 99 |
 | 6 | Hornets | 75% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Mavericks | 25% | 102 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bulls | 37% | 102 | 96 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Pistons | 47% | 102 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Timberwolves | 51% | 102 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Pelicans | 43% | 107 | 123 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Knicks | 18% | 102 | 85 |
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Tuesday, March 15, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 44% | 102 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Magic | 60% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 27 | Nets | 59% | 106 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 53% | 103 | 107 |
 | 19 | Bucks | 47% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 26% | 97 | 87 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 59% | 110 | 106 |
 | 29 | Lakers | 41% | 106 | 98 |
Monday, March 14, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 39% | 103 | 107 |
| 8 | Hornets | 61% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nuggets | 37% | 98 | 119 |
 | 16 | Heat | 63% | 103 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bulls | 27% | 99 | 109 |
| 6 | Raptors | 73% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 47% | 104 | 81 |
| 17 | Wizards | 53% | 105 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 28% | 97 | 81 |
| 7 | Rockets | 72% | 106 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 4 | Thunder | 73% | 113 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 53% | 109 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 58% | 102 | 85 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 10 | Jazz | 42% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 16% | 103 | 107 |
| 2 | Warriors | 84% | 117 | 125 |
Sunday, March 13, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 106 | 114 |
| 5 | Clippers | 51% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 42% | 99 | 75 |
| 10 | Hawks | 58% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 54% | 104 | 108 |
| 19 | Kings | 46% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 109 |
| 27 | Nets | 51% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 58% | 108 | 90 |
| 29 | Lakers | 42% | 105 | 87 |
Saturday, March 12, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 46% | 103 | 112 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 54% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 39% | 103 | 109 |
| 6 | Hornets | 61% | 107 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 66% | 107 | 125 |
| 30 | 76ers | 34% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 33% | 98 | 104 |
| 8 | Raptors | 67% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 21% | 92 | 83 |
| 9 | Hawks | 79% | 103 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 92 |
| 21 | Bucks | 58% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 25% | 100 | 85 |
| 1 | Spurs | 75% | 109 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 47% | 104 | 100 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 53% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 12% | 102 | 116 |
| 2 | Warriors | 88% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 36% | 102 | 84 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 64% | 107 | 121 |
Friday, March 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 36% | 100 | 103 |
| 6 | Hornets | 64% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 49% | 104 | 89 |
| 30 | 76ers | 51% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 44% | 107 | 102 |
| 10 | Celtics | 56% | 109 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 102 | 118 |
| 19 | Bulls | 48% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 47% | 100 | 114 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 53% | 101 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 16% | 103 | 99 |
| 3 | Thunder | 84% | 116 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 43% | 98 | 93 |
| 14 | Jazz | 57% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 41% | 105 | 107 |
| 18 | Kings | 59% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 105 | 112 |
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 24% | 100 | 94 |
| 5 | Clippers | 76% | 110 | 101 |
Thursday, March 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 44% | 101 | 96 |
| 8 | Raptors | 56% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 16% | 94 | 101 |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 31% | 103 | 98 |
| 24 | Nuggets | 69% | 110 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 77% | 111 | 120 |
| 29 | Lakers | 23% | 101 | 108 |
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 30% | 100 | 113 |
| 7 | Hornets | 70% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 72% | 111 | 118 |
| 30 | 76ers | 28% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 32% | 99 | 96 |
| 8 | Celtics | 68% | 106 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 101 | 108 |
| 21 | Bucks | 48% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 42% | 104 | 102 |
| 14 | Mavericks | 58% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 49% | 105 | 128 |
| 27 | Suns | 51% | 106 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 36% | 106 | 108 |
| 3 | Thunder | 64% | 111 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 66% | 111 | 120 |
| 18 | Kings | 34% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 21% | 99 | 94 |
| 2 | Warriors | 79% | 110 | 115 |
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 19% | 97 | 99 |
| 7 | Raptors | 81% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 77% | 109 | 116 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 23% | 99 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 49% | 105 | 94 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 51% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 46% | 99 | 91 |
| 11 | Jazz | 54% | 100 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 44% | 104 | 109 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 106 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 54% | 106 | 98 |
| 28 | Lakers | 46% | 104 | 107 |
Monday, March 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 26% | 100 | 103 |
| 8 | Hornets | 74% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 19% | 96 | 106 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 81% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 67% | 102 | 91 |
| 13 | Pacers | 33% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 37% | 101 | 90 |
| 20 | Bulls | 63% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 47% | 108 | 112 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 53% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 59% | 109 | 109 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 41% | 106 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 19% | 101 | 113 |
| 2 | Warriors | 81% | 113 | 119 |
Sunday, March 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 66% | 109 | 104 |
| 22 | Bucks | 34% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 86% | 116 | 95 |
| 30 | Lakers | 14% | 101 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 28% | 99 | 109 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 72% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 59% | 107 | 114 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 41% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 106 | 103 |
| 18 | Pistons | 49% | 105 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 26% | 96 | 98 |
| 17 | Heat | 74% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 37% | 103 | 113 |
| 7 | Raptors | 63% | 108 | 107 |
Saturday, March 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 34% | 103 | 103 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 66% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 53% | 105 | 89 |
| 22 | Knicks | 47% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 47% | 101 | 100 |
| 15 | Wizards | 53% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 49% | 101 | 106 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 51% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 39% | 102 | 118 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 61% | 106 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 60% | 107 | 100 |
| 24 | Bulls | 40% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 16% | 98 | 94 |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 28% | 101 | 107 |
| 3 | Clippers | 72% | 109 | 97 |
Friday, March 4, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 41% | 99 | 101 |
| 9 | Hornets | 59% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 25% | 102 | 102 |
| 21 | Magic | 75% | 111 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 61% | 102 | 112 |
| 28 | 76ers | 39% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 30% | 103 | 104 |
| 7 | Celtics | 70% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 103 | 115 |
| 8 | Raptors | 62% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wizards | 30% | 101 | 83 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 70% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jazz | 48% | 98 | 88 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 52% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 42% | 103 | 101 |
| 22 | Bucks | 58% | 106 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 40% | 101 | 121 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 60% | 104 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 75% | 106 | 106 |
| 30 | Lakers | 25% | 97 | 77 |
Thursday, March 3, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 27% | 98 | 92 |
| 17 | Heat | 73% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 74% | 106 | 94 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 26% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 32% | 106 | 104 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 68% | 112 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 32% | 107 | 106 |
| 2 | Warriors | 68% | 113 | 121 |