Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 4, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Hornets | 59% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Magic | 75% | 111 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 61% | 102 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 30% | 103 | 104 |
 | 7 | Celtics | 70% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Raptors | 62% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 42% | 103 | 101 |
 | 22 | Bucks | 58% | 106 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Nets | 40% | 101 | 121 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Lakers | 25% | 97 | 77 |
Thursday, March 3, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 27% | 98 | 92 |
| 17 | Heat | 73% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Pelicans | 26% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Mavericks | 68% | 112 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Thunder | 32% | 107 | 106 |
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Wednesday, March 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bulls | 39% | 101 | 89 |
| 20 | Magic | 61% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 67% | 105 | 119 |
| 29 | 76ers | 33% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 104 | 93 |
| 7 | Celtics | 66% | 110 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jazz | 45% | 98 | 94 |
| 10 | Raptors | 55% | 100 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 31% | 104 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 43% | 104 | 98 |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 57% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 55% | 102 | 104 |
| 21 | Bucks | 45% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 59% | 107 | 104 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 41% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pistons | 17% | 94 | 81 |
| 1 | Spurs | 83% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 30% | 101 | 107 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 70% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 43% | 107 | 98 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Clippers | 57% | 110 | 103 |
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 23% | 99 | 92 |
| 8 | Hornets | 77% | 109 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 39% | 97 | 111 |
| 17 | Heat | 61% | 101 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 107 | 104 |
| 22 | Knicks | 46% | 106 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 38% | 103 | 108 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 62% | 107 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 19% | 102 | 105 |
| 1 | Warriors | 81% | 114 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 47% | 103 | 101 |
| 30 | Lakers | 53% | 104 | 107 |
Monday, February 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 29% | 98 | 96 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 71% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 21% | 98 | 108 |
| 11 | Wizards | 79% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 40% | 101 | 95 |
| 6 | Celtics | 60% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 106 | 121 |
| 22 | Bucks | 42% | 103 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 55% | 102 | 103 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 45% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 62% | 113 | 131 |
| 17 | Kings | 38% | 108 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 16% | 97 | 95 |
| 4 | Clippers | 84% | 111 | 105 |
Sunday, February 28, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 62% | 107 | 99 |
| 14 | Wizards | 38% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 44% | 101 | 76 |
| 10 | Hawks | 56% | 104 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 59% | 104 | 101 |
| 18 | Pistons | 41% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 101 | 111 |
| 12 | Pacers | 62% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 27% | 98 | 116 |
| 21 | Magic | 73% | 106 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 103 | 101 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 70% | 111 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 41% | 99 | 98 |
| 19 | Knicks | 59% | 102 | 81 |
Saturday, February 27, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 34% | 99 | 89 |
| 7 | Celtics | 66% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 43% | 105 | 112 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 57% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 107 | 103 |
| 25 | Bulls | 40% | 103 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 60% | 105 | 104 |
| 8 | Rockets | 40% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 49% | 102 | 102 |
| 23 | Bucks | 51% | 103 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 55% | 112 | 121 |
| 4 | Thunder | 45% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 58% | 104 | 106 |
| 27 | Suns | 42% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 94 | 98 |
| 9 | Jazz | 77% | 104 | 96 |
Friday, February 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 43% | 99 | 96 |
| 11 | Pacers | 57% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 71% | 107 | 103 |
| 30 | 76ers | 29% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 40% | 103 | 95 |
| 22 | Knicks | 60% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 53% | 105 | 97 |
| 6 | Raptors | 47% | 104 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bulls | 32% | 100 | 88 |
| 10 | Hawks | 68% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 36% | 103 | 116 |
| 14 | Mavericks | 64% | 108 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 60% | 110 | 117 |
| 16 | Kings | 40% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 67% | 106 | 112 |
| 29 | Lakers | 33% | 99 | 95 |
Thursday, February 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 71% | 111 | 130 |
| 18 | Magic | 29% | 104 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 30% | 101 | 107 |
| 7 | Celtics | 70% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 59% | 109 | 119 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 41% | 106 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 49% | 104 | 116 |
| 28 | Suns | 51% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 44% | 107 | 119 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 55% | 99 | 96 |
| 10 | Jazz | 45% | 97 | 78 |
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 28% | 100 | 103 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 72% | 108 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 34% | 99 | 105 |
| 9 | Pacers | 66% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 20% | 97 | 91 |
| 18 | Pistons | 80% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 75% | 108 | 118 |
| 21 | Heat | 25% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 28% | 101 | 105 |
| 6 | Raptors | 72% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 49% | 104 | 104 |
| 26 | Bulls | 51% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 27% | 98 | 119 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 73% | 107 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 56% | 109 | 116 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 44% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 19% | 99 | 87 |
| 4 | Clippers | 81% | 111 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spurs | 66% | 108 | 108 |
| 17 | Kings | 34% | 102 | 92 |
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 67% | 106 | 124 |
| 30 | 76ers | 33% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 41% | 104 | 89 |
| 15 | Wizards | 59% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 49% | 108 | 114 |
| 24 | Nuggets | 51% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rockets | 40% | 100 | 114 |
| 10 | Jazz | 60% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 27% | 101 | 104 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 73% | 109 | 112 |
Monday, February 22, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 21% | 99 | 96 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 79% | 110 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 53% | 98 | 93 |
| 25 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 52% | 105 | 122 |
| 21 | Knicks | 48% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 62% | 110 | 102 |
| 11 | Hawks | 38% | 105 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 29% | 101 | 101 |
| 22 | Bucks | 71% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 55% | 108 | 122 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 45% | 106 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 12% | 99 | 84 |
| 3 | Clippers | 88% | 115 | 124 |
Sunday, February 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 111 |
| 18 | Pistons | 58% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 46% | 107 | 115 |
| 4 | Thunder | 54% | 108 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 59% | 108 | 121 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 41% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spurs | 79% | 108 | 118 |
| 28 | Suns | 21% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 66% | 105 | 104 |
| 27 | Nets | 34% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 56% | 103 | 105 |
| 21 | Magic | 44% | 101 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 36% | 98 | 85 |
| 6 | Raptors | 64% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 22% | 98 | 103 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 78% | 108 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 35% | 103 | 115 |
| 26 | Bulls | 65% | 108 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 49% | 100 | 111 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 101 | 115 |
Saturday, February 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 31% | 98 | 117 |
| 12 | Hawks | 69% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 94 |
| 25 | Heat | 45% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Knicks | 46% | 104 | 103 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 54% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 46% | 108 | 115 |
| 5 | Clippers | 54% | 110 | 112 |