Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Magic | 49% | 110 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Nets | 49% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 21% | 110 | 107 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Pelicans | 79% | 120 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Celtics | 65% | 118 | 132 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Thunder | 36% | 111 | 101 |
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Monday, March 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Hornets | 43% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bulls | 35% | 109 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Timberwolves | 32% | 106 | 140 |
 | 6 | Knicks | 68% | 112 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Mavericks | 32% | 106 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 62% | 117 | 120 |
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Sunday, March 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 16 | Thunder | 51% | 114 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Nets | 54% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 72% | 121 | 118 |
| 29 | Spurs | 28% | 113 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Heat | 72% | 112 | 112 |
| 30 | Pistons | 28% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 66% | 117 | 117 |
| 27 | Rockets | 34% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 32% | 107 | 111 |
 | 2 | Bucks | 68% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 53% | 114 | 117 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 24 | Blazers | 47% | 113 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 32% | 108 | 105 |
 | 17 | Lakers | 68% | 115 | 111 |
Saturday, March 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 46% | 112 | 110 |
| 5 | Knicks | 54% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 36% | 107 | 113 |
| 14 | Clippers | 64% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 76ers | 58% | 113 | 141 |
| 26 | Pacers | 42% | 110 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Timberwolves | 30% | 105 | 107 |
| 4 | Raptors | 70% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 56% | 117 | 132 |
| 22 | Wizards | 44% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 49% | 107 | 99 |
| 13 | Bulls | 51% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 45% | 112 | 119 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 55% | 114 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 68% | 115 | 117 |
| 25 | Jazz | 32% | 109 | 118 |
Friday, March 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 76% | 115 | 121 |
| 28 | Hornets | 24% | 105 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 39% | 107 | 94 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 61% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 51% | 119 | 119 |
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 118 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 76% | 117 | 126 |
| 29 | Spurs | 24% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 64% | 115 | 112 |
| 27 | Rockets | 36% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Timberwolves | 48% | 108 | 131 |
| 17 | Bulls | 52% | 109 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 71% | 117 | 126 |
| 22 | Blazers | 29% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mavericks | 40% | 110 | 111 |
| 20 | Lakers | 60% | 114 | 110 |
Thursday, March 16, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 84% | 122 | 119 |
| 30 | Pistons | 16% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 37% | 115 | 101 |
| 8 | Nets | 63% | 120 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Thunder | 37% | 110 | 111 |
| 6 | Raptors | 63% | 114 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pacers | 17% | 107 | 139 |
| 2 | Bucks | 83% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 31% | 105 | 113 |
| 9 | Suns | 69% | 112 | 116 |
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 47% | 105 | 119 |
| 11 | Heat | 53% | 106 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 52% | 108 | 118 |
| 14 | Cavaliers | 48% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 60% | 111 | 104 |
| 13 | Timberwolves | 40% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lakers | 55% | 115 | 110 |
| 27 | Rockets | 45% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 44% | 116 | 117 |
| 15 | Bulls | 56% | 118 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Mavericks | 65% | 113 | 137 |
| 29 | Spurs | 35% | 108 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 45% | 113 | 126 |
| 7 | Clippers | 55% | 115 | 134 |
Tuesday, March 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 16% | 104 | 97 |
| 14 | Wizards | 84% | 119 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cavaliers | 66% | 107 | 120 |
| 27 | Hornets | 34% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 51% | 113 | 110 |
| 7 | Raptors | 49% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 64% | 115 | 114 |
| 29 | Spurs | 36% | 109 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 46% | 113 | 107 |
| 17 | Thunder | 54% | 114 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Lakers | 47% | 111 | 123 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 53% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 24 | Blazers | 39% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 54% | 110 | 116 |
| 10 | Suns | 46% | 109 | 104 |
Monday, March 13, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pacers | 58% | 112 | 97 |
| 30 | Pistons | 42% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Timberwolves | 46% | 112 | 136 |
| 16 | Hawks | 54% | 114 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 33% | 104 | 115 |
| 11 | Heat | 67% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 68% | 110 | 104 |
| 25 | Mavericks | 32% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 85% | 119 | 109 |
| 29 | Rockets | 15% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 39% | 112 | 112 |
| 4 | Warriors | 61% | 116 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bucks | 58% | 118 | 133 |
| 18 | Kings | 42% | 115 | 124 |
Sunday, March 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 28% | 109 | 122 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 72% | 118 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 76% | 112 | 114 |
| 26 | Hornets | 24% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 37% | 110 | 93 |
| 5 | 76ers | 63% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Thunder | 63% | 117 | 102 |
| 29 | Spurs | 37% | 112 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Blazers | 41% | 106 | 110 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 59% | 110 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 49% | 110 | 112 |
| 19 | Lakers | 51% | 111 | 108 |
Saturday, March 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 44% | 109 | 95 |
| 5 | Clippers | 56% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 55% | 110 | 119 |
| 25 | Hornets | 45% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pacers | 59% | 112 | 121 |
| 30 | Pistons | 41% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 54% | 107 | 114 |
| 22 | Magic | 46% | 106 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 116 | 134 |
| 15 | Hawks | 37% | 111 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mavericks | 25% | 101 | 108 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 75% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 69% | 114 | 119 |
| 28 | Rockets | 31% | 107 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 110 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 52% | 114 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 45% | 114 | 116 |
| 7 | Warriors | 55% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 42% | 114 | 128 |
| 12 | Suns | 58% | 117 | 119 |
Friday, March 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 43% | 115 | 114 |
| 13 | Wizards | 57% | 117 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Blazers | 29% | 109 | 119 |
| 5 | 76ers | 71% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 49% | 102 | 115 |
| 12 | Heat | 51% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 36% | 106 | 124 |
| 15 | Timberwolves | 64% | 111 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 79% | 123 | 120 |
| 28 | Spurs | 21% | 111 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raptors | 58% | 112 | 112 |
| 20 | Lakers | 42% | 109 | 122 |
Thursday, March 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 47% | 108 | 131 |
| 24 | Magic | 53% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Rockets | 31% | 111 | 125 |
| 22 | Pacers | 69% | 119 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 59% | 110 | 113 |
| 30 | Pistons | 41% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 49% | 112 | 110 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 51% | 113 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 31% | 107 | 113 |
| 5 | Bucks | 69% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Knicks | 55% | 117 | 117 |
| 16 | Kings | 45% | 116 | 122 |
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 48% | 115 | 122 |
| 15 | Wizards | 52% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Blazers | 21% | 107 | 93 |
| 2 | Celtics | 79% | 119 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cavaliers | 54% | 105 | 104 |
| 13 | Heat | 46% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 52% | 115 | 106 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 48% | 114 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 28% | 109 | 117 |
| 1 | Nuggets | 72% | 117 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Thunder | 20% | 107 | 101 |
| 3 | Suns | 80% | 120 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 45% | 110 | 100 |
| 11 | Clippers | 55% | 112 | 108 |