Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 9, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Celtics | 103 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Nets | 74% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Pistons | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Pelicans | 54% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Thunder | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Bulls | 51% | 99 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Timberwolves | 84 | ||
 | 22 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Magic | 84 | ||
 | 26 | Lakers | 101 | ||
Thursday, January 8, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Hornets | 22% | 96 | 103 |
 | 5 | Raptors | 78% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Knicks | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 32% | 96 | 83 |
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Wednesday, January 7, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 94 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 57% | 103 | 105 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 43% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 97 | ||
| 30 | 76ers | 77 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 24% | 91 | 91 |
| 15 | Wizards | 76% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 86 | ||
| 9 | Hawks | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 40% | 101 | 89 |
| 18 | Nets | 60% | 104 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 97 | ||
| 6 | Bulls | 77 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 22% | 100 | 108 |
 | 4 | Mavericks | 78% | 111 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 90 | ||
| 19 | Nuggets | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 71% | 112 | 113 |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 29% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 83 | ||
| 21 | Kings | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 23% | 94 | 102 |
| 2 | Warriors | 77% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Lakers | 89 | ||
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 3 | Clippers | 114 | ||
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 102 | ||
| 23 | Bucks | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 25% | 97 | 105 |
| 1 | Spurs | 75% | 106 | 104 |
Monday, January 5, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 64% | 102 | 92 |
| 30 | 76ers | 36% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 21 | Celtics | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 55% | 104 | 96 |
| 19 | Nets | 45% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| 7 | Bulls | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Knicks | 19% | 90 | 83 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 81% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 110 | ||
| 28 | Timberwolves | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 44% | 100 | 92 |
| 15 | Pelicans | 56% | 102 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 105 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Lakers | 19% | 100 | 94 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 112 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 91 | ||
| 2 | Warriors | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 38% | 101 | 107 |
| 3 | Clippers | 62% | 106 | 98 |
Sunday, January 4, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 59% | 108 | 109 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 41% | 105 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 95 | ||
| 21 | Pistons | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 47% | 97 | 84 |
| 17 | Heat | 53% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 95 | ||
| 27 | Knicks | 82 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 48% | 107 | 109 |
| 13 | Suns | 52% | 108 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 87 | ||
| 25 | Lakers | 88 | ||
Saturday, January 3, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 44% | 95 | 98 |
| 29 | Magic | 56% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| 7 | Bulls | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 39% | 95 | 79 |
| 8 | Rockets | 61% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 101 | ||
| 28 | Timberwolves | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 29% | 94 | 92 |
| 1 | Spurs | 71% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 85 | ||
| 19 | Nuggets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 38% | 98 | 115 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 91 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 127 | ||
Friday, January 2, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cavaliers | 91 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 52% | 99 | 100 |
| 29 | Magic | 48% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 119 | ||
| 21 | Celtics | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 49% | 101 | 97 |
| 25 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 83 | ||
| 15 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 33% | 95 | 102 |
| 4 | Thunder | 67% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 94 | ||
| 23 | Bucks | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 16% | 95 | 96 |
| 13 | Suns | 84% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 98 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 41% | 103 | 105 |
| 3 | Warriors | 59% | 107 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 109 | ||
| 26 | Lakers | 106 | ||
Thursday, January 1, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nuggets | 101 | ||
| 8 | Bulls | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 59% | 106 | 110 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 41% | 103 | 107 |
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 48% | 105 | 84 |
| 21 | Celtics | 52% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 95 | ||
| 14 | Pacers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 16% | 98 | 78 |
| 2 | Clippers | 84% | 112 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 83 | ||
| 7 | Rockets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 43% | 102 | 96 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 57% | 104 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 134 | ||
| 4 | Thunder | 137 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 31% | 99 | 93 |
| 1 | Spurs | 69% | 105 | 95 |
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pistons | 49% | 100 | 109 |
| 27 | Magic | 51% | 101 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 12 | Hawks | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 25% | 97 | 96 |
| 7 | Bulls | 75% | 106 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 87 | ||
| 10 | Grizzlies | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 48% | 105 | 106 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 52% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 87 | ||
| 5 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 37% | 105 | 111 |
| 19 | Nuggets | 63% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 94 | ||
| 22 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 49% | 104 | 97 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 86 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 126 | ||
Monday, December 29, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 46% | 98 | 104 |
| 24 | Hornets | 54% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bulls | 92 | ||
| 14 | Pacers | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 46% | 101 | 99 |
| 20 | Nets | 54% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 34% | 95 | 104 |
| 6 | Rockets | 66% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 97 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 101 | ||
Sunday, December 28, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 24% | 100 | 103 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 76% | 109 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 1 | Spurs | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 42% | 102 | 107 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 58% | 105 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 79 | ||
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Raptors | 57% | 107 | 116 |
| 19 | Nuggets | 43% | 105 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 116 | ||
| 26 | Lakers | 107 | ||
Saturday, December 27, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 31% | 103 | 110 |
| 2 | Clippers | 69% | 110 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 24 | Hornets | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Celtics | 30% | 98 | 88 |
| 15 | Wizards | 70% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 103 | ||
| 16 | Heat | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 27% | 99 | 100 |
| 6 | Bulls | 73% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 110 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 57% | 101 | 90 |
| 23 | Bucks | 43% | 99 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 71 | ||
| 25 | Jazz | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 39% | 99 | 129 |
| 18 | Kings | 61% | 103 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 97 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 110 | ||