Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, November 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Bucks | 49% | 111 | 97 |
 | 21 | Magic | 51% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Raptors | 94 | ||
 | 1 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Heat | 33% | 111 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, November 10, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Pistons | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Hornets | 43% | 118 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Nets | 107 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pelicans | 43% | 109 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Timberwolves | 76% | 118 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Lakers | 33% | 108 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Thunder | 98 | ||
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Thursday, November 9, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 46% | 120 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 120 | ||
| 21 | Magic | 119 | ||
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 45% | 118 | 132 |
| 26 | Hornets | 55% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 118 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 134 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 60% | 116 | 103 |
| 5 | 76ers | 40% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 93 | ||
| 14 | Nets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 105 |
 | 8 | Knicks | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 116 | ||
 | 21 | Bulls | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lakers | 52% | 110 | 94 |
| 24 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 11 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 22% | 109 | 118 |
| 9 | Bucks | 78% | 120 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 101 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 53% | 113 | 120 |
| 18 | Thunder | 47% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 40% | 111 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 20 | Kings | 121 | ||
Monday, November 6, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 73% | 116 | 120 |
| 27 | Pistons | 27% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 152 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 49% | 114 | 117 |
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 128 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 146 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 54% | 117 | 129 |
| 15 | Nets | 46% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 107 | ||
| 17 | Heat | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 46% | 113 | 97 |
| 8 | Knicks | 54% | 114 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 48% | 112 | 97 |
| 25 | Rockets | 52% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 54% | 119 | 117 |
| 21 | Thunder | 46% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 116 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 134 | ||
Sunday, November 5, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 120 | ||
| 27 | Pistons | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 28 | Spurs | 39% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 104 | ||
| 12 | Cavaliers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 17% | 110 | 118 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 83% | 124 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 112 | ||
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 100 | ||
Saturday, November 4, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 100 | ||
| 6 | 76ers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 41% | 120 | 125 |
| 23 | Pacers | 59% | 123 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 101 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 51% | 119 | 123 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 49% | 118 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 124 | ||
| 16 | Nets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 53% | 115 | 89 |
| 25 | Rockets | 47% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 95 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 25% | 104 | 101 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 75% | 114 | 123 |
Friday, November 3, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 55% | 117 | 116 |
| 24 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| 7 | Bucks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 31% | 111 | 114 |
| 15 | Heat | 69% | 118 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 70% | 113 | 141 |
| 21 | Thunder | 30% | 106 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 56% | 111 | 113 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 44% | 108 | 115 |
Thursday, November 2, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| 7 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 27% | 106 | 116 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 73% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 115 | ||
| 23 | Jazz | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 21% | 110 | 132 |
| 3 | Suns | 79% | 122 | 121 |
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 109 | 110 |
| 28 | Pistons | 52% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| 19 | Raptors | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 28% | 115 | 121 |
| 15 | Hawks | 72% | 124 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 104 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 155 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 109 |
| 14 | Heat | 59% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 95 | ||
| 10 | Knicks | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 47% | 112 | 110 |
| 21 | Thunder | 53% | 113 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 53% | 110 | 89 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 47% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 116 | 109 |
| 24 | Jazz | 49% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 101 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 35% | 111 | 125 |
| 11 | Lakers | 65% | 117 | 130 |
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 109 | ||
| 9 | Cavaliers | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 115 |
| 4 | Suns | 78% | 119 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 10 | Clippers | 118 | ||
Monday, October 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 61% | 115 | 133 |
| 29 | Hornets | 39% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 112 | ||
| 21 | Pacers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 79% | 122 | 126 |
| 25 | Wizards | 21% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 113 | ||
| 17 | Hawks | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 101 | 99 |
| 19 | Raptors | 81% | 114 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 125 | ||
| 10 | Grizzlies | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 37% | 114 | 114 |
| 5 | Bucks | 63% | 119 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 130 | ||
| 13 | Pelicans | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 41% | 109 | 112 |
| 22 | Thunder | 59% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 102 | ||
| 2 | Nuggets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 36% | 106 | 103 |
| 12 | Lakers | 64% | 111 | 106 |
Sunday, October 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 63% | 116 | 128 |
| 20 | Thunder | 37% | 112 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 106 | ||
| 26 | Rockets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 33% | 118 | 127 |
| 2 | Bucks | 67% | 125 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 98 | ||
| 3 | 76ers | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Spurs | 24% | 112 | 83 |
| 12 | Clippers | 76% | 122 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 127 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 132 | ||
Saturday, October 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 102 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 56% | 116 | 106 |
| 25 | Wizards | 44% | 114 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 87 | ||
| 11 | Pelicans | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 53% | 116 | 125 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 47% | 115 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| 18 | Raptors | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 27% | 105 | 90 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 73% | 114 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jazz | 104 | ||
| 9 | Suns | 126 | ||
Friday, October 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 40% | 108 | 111 |
| 28 | Hornets | 60% | 112 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 108 | ||
| 6 | Grizzlies | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 51% | 116 | 126 |
| 19 | Hawks | 49% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 111 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 42% | 110 | 108 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 58% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 49% | 115 | 122 |
| 29 | Spurs | 51% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 120 | ||
| 14 | Mavericks | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Clippers | 55% | 120 | 118 |
| 23 | Jazz | 45% | 118 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 56% | 120 | 122 |
| 17 | Kings | 44% | 118 | 114 |
Thursday, October 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 36% | 113 | 117 |
| 2 | Bucks | 64% | 118 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 95 | ||
| 13 | Lakers | 100 | ||
Wednesday, October 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 60% | 117 | 110 |
| 28 | Hornets | 40% | 113 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 120 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 57% | 115 | 108 |
| 7 | Knicks | 43% | 113 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rockets | 86 | ||
| 24 | Magic | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cavaliers | 46% | 109 | 114 |
| 16 | Nets | 54% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 102 | ||
| 12 | Heat | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 52% | 111 | 94 |
| 19 | Raptors | 48% | 110 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 124 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pelicans | 37% | 109 | 111 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 63% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 130 | ||
| 21 | Jazz | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 67% | 121 | 126 |
| 29 | Spurs | 33% | 114 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
| 15 | Clippers | 123 | ||
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 37% | 111 | 107 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 63% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 108 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 104 | ||