Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, December 4, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Nets | 43% | 102 | 91 |
 | 25 | Knicks | 57% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Bucks | 28% | 98 | 95 |
 | 17 | Pistons | 72% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Lakers | 87 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Mavericks | 60% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Pelicans | 114 | ||
Thursday, December 3, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Thunder | 54% | 107 | 95 |
 | 16 | Heat | 46% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Raptors | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 31% | 98 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Celtics | 114 | ||
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Wednesday, December 2, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 27% | 103 | 108 |
| 18 | Wizards | 73% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 122 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Knicks | 70% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| 7 | Hawks | 86 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 28% | 99 | 90 |
 | 14 | Bulls | 72% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 101 | ||
| 6 | Rockets | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 14% | 91 | 70 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pacers | 103 | ||
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Tuesday, December 1, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wizards | 97 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 85 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 51% | 105 | 91 |
| 30 | 76ers | 49% | 104 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Suns | 91 | ||
| 26 | Nets | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 45% | 104 | 96 |
 | 22 | Timberwolves | 55% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 113 | ||
| 21 | Pelicans | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 49% | 106 | 115 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 107 | 112 |
Monday, November 30, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 39% | 102 | 105 |
| 16 | Heat | 61% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 100 | ||
| 8 | Hawks | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 61% | 102 | 89 |
| 14 | Bulls | 39% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 74 | ||
| 28 | Bucks | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 65% | 105 | 106 |
| 15 | Jazz | 35% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 98 | ||
| 19 | Kings | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 105 | 87 |
| 4 | Clippers | 67% | 111 | 102 |
Sunday, November 29, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Bucks | 82 | ||
| 12 | Hornets | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 21% | 103 | 99 |
| 4 | Clippers | 79% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 83 | ||
| 27 | Nets | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 60% | 108 | 91 |
| 25 | Magic | 40% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 107 | ||
| 7 | Raptors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 21% | 94 | 84 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 79% | 105 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| 23 | Knicks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pacers | 74% | 110 | 107 |
| 28 | Lakers | 26% | 101 | 103 |
Saturday, November 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 60% | 107 | 84 |
| 20 | Wizards | 40% | 104 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 88 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 20% | 102 | 81 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 80% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 88 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 32% | 102 | 87 |
| 15 | Jazz | 68% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Lakers | 96 | ||
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 13% | 102 | 101 |
| 1 | Warriors | 87% | 118 | 120 |
Friday, November 27, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 54% | 107 | 95 |
| 12 | Hornets | 46% | 106 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 90 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 41% | 107 | 78 |
| 13 | Celtics | 59% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 97 | ||
| 23 | Knicks | 78 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bulls | 39% | 101 | 92 |
| 10 | Pacers | 61% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 114 | ||
| 8 | Rockets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 41% | 101 | 116 |
| 6 | Grizzlies | 59% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 87 | ||
| 5 | Thunder | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 77% | 109 | 91 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 23% | 99 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 135 | ||
| 22 | Suns | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 40% | 107 | 101 |
| 19 | Kings | 60% | 111 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 90 | ||
| 4 | Clippers | 111 | ||
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 34% | 105 | 87 |
| 11 | Hornets | 66% | 110 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 91 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 24% | 99 | 80 |
| 13 | Celtics | 76% | 109 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 81 | ||
| 19 | Pistons | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 51% | 106 | 99 |
| 6 | Raptors | 49% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 7 | Rockets | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 54% | 106 | 129 |
| 27 | Bucks | 46% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 104 | 99 |
| 5 | Thunder | 77% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 83 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 45% | 110 | 120 |
| 22 | Suns | 55% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 102 | ||
| 4 | Clippers | 91 | ||
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 47% | 104 | 123 |
| 18 | Wizards | 53% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 97 | ||
| 13 | Hawks | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 45% | 103 | 96 |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 55% | 105 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 111 | ||
| 25 | Nuggets | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bulls | 49% | 104 | 93 |
| 17 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lakers | 77 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 111 | ||
Monday, November 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 122 | ||
| 10 | Hornets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 21% | 99 | 103 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 79% | 110 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 78 | ||
| 16 | Heat | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 60% | 104 | 88 |
| 29 | Bucks | 40% | 100 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 95 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 13% | 96 | 84 |
| 2 | Spurs | 87% | 111 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 111 | ||
| 14 | Jazz | 89 | ||
Sunday, November 22, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Raptors | 91 | ||
| 4 | Clippers | 80 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 68% | 111 | 101 |
| 29 | Nets | 32% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Suns | 116 | ||
| 22 | Pelicans | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 48% | 110 | 114 |
| 5 | Thunder | 52% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 118 | ||
| 25 | Nuggets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 108 | 107 |
| 27 | Lakers | 47% | 107 | 93 |
Saturday, November 21, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 49% | 107 | 97 |
| 26 | Magic | 51% | 108 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 86 | ||
| 13 | Pacers | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 34% | 103 | 97 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 66% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 97 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 14% | 94 | 91 |
| 16 | Heat | 86% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 107 | ||
| 6 | Rockets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 23% | 94 | 82 |
| 2 | Spurs | 77% | 104 | 92 |