Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Knicks | 33% | 102 | 107 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bucks | 27% | 97 | 106 |
 | 14 | Bulls | 73% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Mavericks | 67% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Lakers | 23% | 102 | 88 |
Monday, January 4, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Raptors | 30% | 99 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 64% | 104 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 68% | 109 | 103 |
 | 28 | Nets | 32% | 103 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Magic | 36% | 102 | 89 |
 | 14 | Pistons | 64% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Heat | 47% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 26 | Bucks | 20% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 33% | 107 | 116 |
 | 5 | Thunder | 67% | 113 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Hornets | 28% | 102 | 101 |
| 2 | Warriors | 72% | 110 | 111 |
Sunday, January 3, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 59% | 106 | 97 |
| 22 | Knicks | 41% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 38% | 100 | 115 |
| 7 | Raptors | 62% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 46% | 102 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 105 | 112 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 29 | Lakers | 53% | 108 | 97 |
Saturday, January 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 23% | 101 | 100 |
| 6 | Celtics | 77% | 112 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 35% | 106 | 119 |
| 19 | Kings | 65% | 111 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 59% | 108 | 109 |
| 13 | Hornets | 41% | 105 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 39% | 103 | 82 |
| 11 | Pacers | 61% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 21% | 98 | 79 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 79% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 42% | 100 | 95 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 58% | 103 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pelicans | 40% | 107 | 105 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 60% | 111 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 23% | 98 | 103 |
| 1 | Spurs | 77% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 52% | 98 | 87 |
| 20 | Jazz | 48% | 97 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 19% | 101 | 108 |
| 4 | Warriors | 81% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 12% | 95 | 99 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 5 | Clippers | 88% | 111 | 130 |
Friday, January 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 41% | 103 | 91 |
| 16 | Wizards | 59% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 47% | 104 | 82 |
| 15 | Heat | 53% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 42% | 102 | 94 |
| 9 | Raptors | 58% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 36% | 101 | 81 |
| 14 | Bulls | 64% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 43% | 103 | 84 |
| 29 | Lakers | 57% | 105 | 93 |
Thursday, December 31, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 29% | 98 | 120 |
| 10 | Pacers | 71% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 30% | 101 | 90 |
| 16 | Pistons | 70% | 109 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 49% | 108 | 114 |
| 6 | Rockets | 51% | 109 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 52% | 108 | 95 |
| 18 | Pelicans | 48% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 11% | 99 | 106 |
| 2 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 97 | 96 |
| 21 | Jazz | 59% | 100 | 109 |
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 47% | 104 | 122 |
| 9 | Hornets | 53% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 34% | 102 | 93 |
| 20 | Magic | 66% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 18% | 101 | 112 |
| 8 | Celtics | 82% | 113 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 37% | 102 | 91 |
| 10 | Raptors | 63% | 106 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 49% | 103 | 100 |
| 16 | Bulls | 51% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 49% | 99 | 80 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 51% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 66% | 112 | 91 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 34% | 106 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 11% | 93 | 79 |
| 2 | Spurs | 89% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 33% | 100 | 103 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 24% | 101 | 110 |
| 19 | Kings | 76% | 111 | 105 |
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 52% | 106 | 96 |
| 23 | Knicks | 48% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 39% | 104 | 121 |
| 6 | Rockets | 61% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 39% | 99 | 90 |
| 12 | Grizzlies | 61% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 14% | 97 | 123 |
| 3 | Thunder | 86% | 112 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 67% | 106 | 93 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 33% | 100 | 87 |
Monday, December 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 15% | 99 | 98 |
| 8 | Hornets | 85% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 42% | 103 | 87 |
| 9 | Pacers | 58% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 49% | 107 | 89 |
| 21 | Magic | 51% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 56% | 107 | 108 |
| 17 | Wizards | 44% | 105 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 25% | 100 | 111 |
| 12 | Heat | 75% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 47% | 102 | 97 |
| 16 | Bulls | 53% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 29% | 101 | 93 |
| 14 | Mavericks | 71% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 95 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 73% | 109 | 101 |
| 26 | Suns | 27% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 23% | 94 | 91 |
| 20 | Jazz | 77% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 13% | 102 | 103 |
| 1 | Warriors | 87% | 117 | 122 |
Sunday, December 27, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 24% | 99 | 96 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 76% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 26% | 100 | 91 |
| 6 | Celtics | 74% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 13% | 98 | 112 |
| 3 | Thunder | 87% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 104 | 98 |
| 17 | Kings | 68% | 110 | 94 |
Saturday, December 26, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 60% | 108 | 111 |
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 60% | 101 | 111 |
| 26 | Bucks | 40% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 43% | 100 | 92 |
| 11 | Hornets | 57% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 46% | 101 | 108 |
| 21 | Magic | 54% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 48% | 109 | 108 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 52% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 31% | 100 | 98 |
| 9 | Hawks | 69% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 52% | 107 | 99 |
| 16 | Pistons | 48% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pacers | 61% | 106 | 102 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 39% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 36% | 104 | 111 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 64% | 108 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nuggets | 14% | 93 | 86 |
| 2 | Spurs | 86% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 26% | 100 | 111 |
| 22 | Suns | 74% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 53% | 103 | 109 |
| 20 | Jazz | 47% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 69% | 105 | 76 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 98 | 105 |
Friday, December 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 28% | 101 | 105 |
| 4 | Thunder | 72% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 31% | 103 | 83 |
| 1 | Warriors | 69% | 110 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 106 | 84 |
| 7 | Rockets | 36% | 101 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 77% | 114 | 94 |
| 29 | Lakers | 23% | 104 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 88 |
| 16 | Heat | 58% | 107 | 94 |
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 45% | 105 | 102 |
| 11 | Hornets | 55% | 106 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 23% | 99 | 84 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 77% | 110 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 35% | 106 | 108 |
| 6 | Pacers | 65% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 55% | 107 | 101 |
| 23 | Magic | 45% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 46% | 102 | 91 |
| 17 | Wizards | 54% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 58% | 109 | 119 |
| 28 | Nets | 42% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 34% | 102 | 100 |
| 8 | Hawks | 66% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 95 | 100 |
| 27 | Bucks | 75% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 106 | 108 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 24% | 96 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 105 | 89 |
| 19 | Pelicans | 60% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nuggets | 36% | 104 | 104 |
| 22 | Suns | 64% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jazz | 17% | 98 | 85 |
| 1 | Warriors | 83% | 112 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 120 |
| 29 | Lakers | 20% | 102 | 85 |