Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, February 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Pistons | 105 | ||
 | 28 | Nets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 41% | 102 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Pelicans | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Thunder | 71% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 92 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 58% | 105 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 96 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bucks | 37% | 104 | 104 |
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Sunday, January 31, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 93 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 56% | 102 | 87 |
 | 21 | Heat | 44% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Celtics | 114 | ||
| 24 | Magic | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Mavericks | 73% | 108 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Knicks | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Timberwolves | 33% | 104 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Hornets | 101 | ||
 | 29 | Lakers | 82 | ||
Saturday, January 30, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 87% | 114 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 107 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nuggets | 31% | 100 | 105 |
| 12 | Pacers | 69% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 103 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 45% | 106 | 123 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23061922;}%20.st1{fill:%23CE1141;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M249.8,189.4l0.4-33.3c0-15.6-16.3-18.2-28.3-18.1c8-2.7,17.7-7.2,24.7-14.8c7.4-6.8,12.6-16.4,11.7-29.8%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8l-2.3,2.3c-6.2,19.3-9.9,34.7-12.1,49%20c-27.9,4.8-47.5,11.2-47.5,11.2l-2.3,2.3c0,0,22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.3,0.1,57.1,0,109.6c-41.6-1.2-78.1,5.7-87,16.9%20c-2.9,2.4-4.5,5.1-4.4,7.9c0.5,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l2.3-2.3l3.7-49c0-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.3-2.1c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.6,2.2,4.1%20l1.6,64.5l2.3-2.3l4-52.5c0-1.2,0.1-2.1,0.3-2.9c1.1,0.2,2.2,1.8,2.1,4.8l1.8,67.2l2.3-2.3l3.2-97.8c6.1,0.2,12.3,0.3,18.7,0.3%20c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.3-2.3l2.7-53.4c0-1.1,0.1-2,0.3-2.7c1,0.2,2,1.8,2,4.6l2.8,74.9l2.3-2.3l2.8-64.7%20c0-0.9,0.2-1.7,0.4-2.3c1.3,0,2.7,1.6,2.7,4.7l2.3,85.7l2.3-2.3l3.4-143.6c45.4-4,79.9-13.1,88.5-23.7c2.8-2.4,4.4-4.9,4.4-7.4%20C341.4,197.9,299.3,187.1,249.8,189.4%20M152.3,227.9c-36.4-3.5-61-10.9-61-20.2c0-0.7,0.2-1.3,0.6-2c8.5-6,34.7-9.8,60.9-13.7%20c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8L152.3,227.9z%20M226.5,102.5c1.4,10.3-1.6,18.1-6.9,24c-9.5,8.6-24.4,12.5-36.5,14.3%20c0.2-19.4-0.1-39.6-1.8-59.4C204.7,83.9,224.8,89.8,226.5,102.5%20M219.6,229.9c-5.7,0.2-11.5,0.3-17.5,0.3c-7,0-13.9-0.1-20.5-0.4%20l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21,0.7-47.4,1.1-75.6c17.1,2,37.6,6.8,37.3,18.8L219.6,229.9z%20M310.2,213.7c-8.5,6.7-31,11.9-60.8,14.5l0.4-35.8%20c34.1,4.4,61.8,9.4,61.8,17.6C311.6,211.2,311.1,212.5,310.2,213.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M342,211.9c-0.6-14-42.7-24.8-92.2-22.4l0.4-33.3c-0.1-20.6-28.3-18.6-37.8-17.3c11.1-2,48.2-11.3,45.9-45.3%20c-1.5-22.6-29.8-33.8-76.6-29.3c-0.8,0.1-1.5,0.2-2.3,0.2c-2.2-16.7-5.6-32.9-10.8-47.8c-6.5,20.2-10.3,36.1-12.4,50.9%20c-29,4.8-49.5,11.6-49.5,11.6s22.6-2,48.3-1.7c-2.9,29.7,0.1,57.9,0,112c-49.2-1.7-91.9,7.8-91.4,22.4%20c0.4,12.7,38.3,24.4,91.4,28.9l2.3,72.2l3.7-49c0.1-6.1,4.7-5.5,4.7-0.3l1.7,64.5l4-52.5c-0.1-7.1,4.9-6.7,4.7-0.4l1.8,67.2%20l3.2-100.2c6.8,0.2,13.8,0.4,20.9,0.4c6.7,0,13.3-0.1,19.8-0.3l3.2,102l2.7-53.4c0-6.8,4.6-6.5,4.6-0.4l2.8,74.9l2.8-64.7%20c0.2-6.4,5.3-6.1,5.4,0l2.3,85.7l3.4-145.6v-0.1C303,236.3,342,224.6,342,211.9%20M228.8,100.2c3.8,28.2-25,37.5-45.7,40.6%20c0.2-20.3-0.1-41.4-2-62C205.5,81.2,227,87,228.8,100.2%20M91.3,207.7c0-8.6,31.9-13.2,63.8-18c0,10.3-0.2,21.5-0.5,33.8l0.1,4.7%20C116.9,224.7,91.3,217.2,91.3,207.7%20M181.6,229.8l0.3-8.3c-0.6-21.7,0.8-49,1.1-78.1c17.4,1.8,39.9,6.5,39.5,19.1l-0.6,67.4%20c-6.4,0.2-13,0.3-19.8,0.3C195.1,230.1,188.3,230,181.6,229.8%20M249.4,228.2l0.5-38.4c35.1,4.5,64,9.6,64,17.9%20C313.9,217.2,287.5,224.8,249.4,228.2'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 9 | Rockets | 55% | 107 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 117 | ||
| 8 | Grizzlies | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 48% | 101 | 103 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 52% | 102 | 117 |
Friday, January 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 94 | ||
| 7 | Celtics | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 59% | 107 | 114 |
| 14 | Pistons | 41% | 103 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 84 | ||
| 22 | Knicks | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 28% | 106 | 108 |
| 5 | Thunder | 72% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 79 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 52% | 100 | 107 |
| 25 | Bucks | 48% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 90 | ||
| 13 | Jazz | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hornets | 40% | 104 | 91 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 93 | ||
| 4 | Clippers | 105 | ||
Thursday, January 28, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 92 | ||
| 12 | Pacers | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 33% | 102 | 117 |
| 17 | Wizards | 67% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 93 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 33% | 96 | 83 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 67% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 105 | ||
| 20 | Pelicans | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bulls | 68% | 107 | 114 |
| 29 | Lakers | 32% | 100 | 91 |
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 93 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 28% | 102 | 103 |
| 7 | Celtics | 72% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 97 | ||
| 13 | Pistons | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 46% | 105 | 85 |
| 8 | Hawks | 54% | 106 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 126 | ||
| 26 | Timberwolves | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 26% | 99 | 99 |
| 2 | Spurs | 74% | 108 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 73 | ||
| 15 | Jazz | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 18% | 102 | 107 |
| 1 | Warriors | 82% | 115 | 127 |
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 91 | ||
| 13 | Pacers | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 51% | 103 | 103 |
| 30 | 76ers | 49% | 102 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 102 | ||
| 28 | Nets | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 65% | 110 | 128 |
| 22 | Knicks | 35% | 105 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wizards | 89 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 42% | 100 | 100 |
| 24 | Bucks | 58% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 97 | ||
| 18 | Trail Blazers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 70% | 108 | 92 |
| 29 | Lakers | 30% | 101 | 90 |
Monday, January 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 17% | 98 | 107 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 83% | 111 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 116 | ||
| 17 | Wizards | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 37% | 98 | 89 |
| 15 | Bulls | 63% | 102 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 102 | ||
| 8 | Grizzlies | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 43% | 106 | 112 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 57% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 119 | ||
| 23 | Nuggets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 43% | 100 | 95 |
| 14 | Jazz | 57% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 129 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 33% | 102 | 90 |
| 1 | Warriors | 67% | 108 | 120 |
Sunday, January 24, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 112 | ||
| 30 | 76ers | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 106 | ||
| 28 | Nets | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 45% | 107 | 104 |
| 11 | Rockets | 55% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 94 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 112 | ||
Saturday, January 23, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 39% | 103 | 84 |
| 13 | Hornets | 61% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 34% | 101 | 99 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 66% | 106 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 101 | ||
| 26 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 20% | 98 | 96 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 80% | 109 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| 27 | Suns | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 55% | 108 | 101 |
| 25 | Nuggets | 45% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 103 | ||
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 39% | 104 | 97 |
| 16 | Kings | 61% | 108 | 108 |
Friday, January 22, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 53% | 103 | 120 |
| 23 | Magic | 47% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 101 | ||
| 7 | Celtics | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 66% | 102 | 108 |
| 28 | Nets | 34% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 116 | ||
| 21 | Knicks | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 33% | 96 | 81 |
| 6 | Raptors | 67% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| 11 | Rockets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 56% | 107 | 109 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 44% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 110 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 81% | 108 | 108 |
| 29 | Lakers | 19% | 96 | 95 |
Thursday, January 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 102 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 45% | 105 | 99 |
| 20 | Pelicans | 55% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 24 | Nuggets | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 46% | 106 | 88 |
| 18 | Kings | 54% | 107 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 117 | ||
| 27 | Suns | 89 | ||
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 34% | 98 | 96 |
| 23 | Magic | 66% | 104 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 87 | ||
| 15 | Wizards | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 108 | 91 |
| 28 | Nets | 22% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 111 | ||
| 22 | Knicks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 46% | 104 | 109 |
| 6 | Raptors | 54% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 125 | ||
| 13 | Bulls | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 42% | 106 | 123 |
| 9 | Rockets | 58% | 109 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| 4 | Thunder | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 30% | 100 | 94 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 70% | 107 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 112 | ||
| 29 | Lakers | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 49% | 106 | 104 |
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 107 | 98 |
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 38% | 96 | 91 |
| 16 | Heat | 62% | 100 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 99 | ||
| 20 | Pelicans | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 67% | 109 | 110 |
| 24 | Nuggets | 33% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 97 | ||
| 27 | Suns | 94 | ||