Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, April 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 87 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 98 | ||
 | 11 | Heat | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 105 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, April 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pistons | 108 | ||
 | 20 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Nets | 23% | 98 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Pelicans | 97 | ||
 | 10 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Hornets | 57% | 102 | 111 |
 | 25 | Knicks | 43% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 86 | ||
 | 13 | Mavericks | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Thunder | 54% | 111 | 115 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 93 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 45% | 102 | 89 |
| 13 | Heat | 55% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 90 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 21% | 99 | 90 |
| 8 | Hawks | 79% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 92 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 74% | 109 | 109 |
 | 25 | Bucks | 26% | 100 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 124 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 88 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 14 | Jazz | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 115 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 14% | 102 | 124 |
| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 117 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 81 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 103 | ||
Sunday, April 3, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 51% | 104 | 106 |
| 28 | Nets | 49% | 103 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 103 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 53% | 110 | 110 |
| 10 | Rockets | 47% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 88 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 78 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 42% | 103 | 109 |
| 5 | Clippers | 58% | 106 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 107 | ||
| 22 | Magic | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jazz | 69% | 105 | 101 |
| 27 | Suns | 31% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 102 | ||
| 25 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 53% | 101 | 92 |
| 26 | Knicks | 47% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 136 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 72% | 110 | 107 |
| 30 | Lakers | 28% | 102 | 100 |
Saturday, April 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 115 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 37% | 103 | 94 |
| 17 | Bulls | 63% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 95 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 41% | 106 | 115 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 59% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 93 | ||
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 110 | ||
Friday, April 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 91 | ||
| 7 | Hornets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 41% | 104 | 98 |
| 18 | Pistons | 59% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 91 | ||
| 25 | Knicks | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 104 | 110 |
| 8 | Hawks | 51% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 99 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 44% | 102 | 110 |
| 26 | Bucks | 56% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 85 | ||
| 13 | Jazz | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 52% | 106 | 112 |
| 21 | Kings | 48% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 66% | 110 | 106 |
| 27 | Suns | 34% | 104 | 99 |
Thursday, March 31, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 87 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 33% | 99 | 114 |
| 14 | Pacers | 67% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 103 | ||
| 9 | Rockets | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 51% | 105 | 95 |
| 21 | Pelicans | 49% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 117 | ||
| 4 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 48% | 107 | 109 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 108 | 116 |
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 48% | 102 | 97 |
| 7 | Raptors | 52% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 109 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 38% | 104 | 94 |
| 26 | Bucks | 62% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 99 | ||
| 21 | Timberwolves | 79 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 41% | 103 | 89 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 59% | 106 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pelicans | 92 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 57% | 105 | 103 |
| 14 | Jazz | 43% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 111 | ||
| 22 | Kings | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 68% | 107 | 100 |
| 29 | Lakers | 32% | 101 | 102 |
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 33% | 100 | 98 |
| 13 | Pacers | 67% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 105 | ||
| 23 | Magic | 139 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 72% | 109 | 100 |
| 30 | 76ers | 28% | 101 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 82 | ||
| 17 | Pistons | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 37% | 105 | 106 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 94 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 102 | ||
Monday, March 28, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Nets | 27% | 98 | 99 |
| 10 | Heat | 73% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 57% | 106 | 102 |
| 18 | Bulls | 43% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 101 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 33% | 105 | 116 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 67% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 91 | ||
| 23 | Pelicans | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 49% | 105 | 97 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 51% | 106 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 75 | ||
| 15 | Jazz | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 32% | 106 | 93 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celtics | 90 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 114 | ||
Sunday, March 27, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 90 | ||
| 5 | Clippers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 47% | 103 | 101 |
| 16 | Pacers | 53% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 105 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 49% | 107 | 111 |
| 22 | Kings | 51% | 108 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 101 | ||
| 29 | Lakers | 88 | ||
Saturday, March 26, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 110 | ||
| 27 | Nets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 57% | 105 | 89 |
| 24 | Magic | 43% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 115 | ||
| 23 | Pelicans | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hawks | 51% | 105 | 112 |
| 18 | Pistons | 49% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| 26 | Knicks | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Jazz | 57% | 103 | 93 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 43% | 100 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 92 | ||
| 4 | Thunder | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 56% | 104 | 115 |
| 25 | Bucks | 44% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 102 | ||
| 28 | Suns | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 22% | 102 | 105 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 78% | 113 | 108 |
Friday, March 25, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 33% | 104 | 132 |
| 11 | Wizards | 67% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 105 | ||
| 18 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 34% | 99 | 97 |
| 12 | Heat | 66% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 90 | ||
| 9 | Hawks | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 43% | 103 | 109 |
| 10 | Rockets | 57% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 104 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 38% | 108 | 94 |
| 21 | Kings | 62% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 120 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 54% | 107 | 116 |
| 29 | Lakers | 46% | 105 | 105 |