Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, March 21, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 64% | 104 | 88 | |
| 7 | Hornets | 36% | 99 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nuggets | 20% | 99 | 91 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 80% | 110 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 16% | 96 | 75 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 84% | 110 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 32% | 102 | 96 | |
| 14 | Celtics | 68% | 108 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 31% | 100 | 91 | |
| 17 | Pistons | 69% | 107 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 39% | 101 | 117 | |
| 6 | Hawks | 61% | 105 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 35% | 105 | 102 | |
| 18 | Bulls | 65% | 110 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 74% | 115 | 109 | |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 26% | 106 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 51% | 104 | 103 | |
| 27 | Suns | 49% | 103 | 97 | |
Sunday, March 20, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 107 | 120 | |
| 16 | Mavericks | 55% | 109 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Magic | 30% | 98 | 100 | |
| 8 | Raptors | 70% | 105 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celtics | 71% | 110 | 120 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 29% | 103 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 60% | 107 | 105 | |
| 24 | Pelicans | 40% | 104 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 53% | 99 | 94 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 47% | 98 | 85 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 47% | 106 | 88 | |
| 19 | Knicks | 53% | 107 | 80 | |
Saturday, March 19, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nuggets | 27% | 100 | 101 | |
| 6 | Hornets | 73% | 109 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 31% | 101 | 103 | |
| 17 | Pistons | 69% | 108 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 48% | 104 | 115 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 52% | 105 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 35% | 101 | 89 | |
| 12 | Wizards | 65% | 106 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 36% | 103 | 97 | |
| 8 | Hawks | 64% | 108 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 58% | 104 | 101 | |
| 14 | Heat | 42% | 101 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 56% | 100 | 85 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 44% | 99 | 92 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 73% | 105 | 102 | |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 27% | 96 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 32% | 103 | 79 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 68% | 110 | 87 | |
Friday, March 18, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 72% | 108 | 109 | |
| 24 | Magic | 28% | 100 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 81% | 114 | 111 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 19% | 102 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 40% | 106 | 108 | |
| 17 | Pistons | 60% | 109 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 42% | 103 | 91 | |
| 7 | Raptors | 58% | 106 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Timberwolves | 33% | 105 | 111 | |
| 9 | Rockets | 67% | 111 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 107 | 117 | |
| 22 | Pelicans | 51% | 108 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 63% | 112 | 130 | |
| 11 | Mavericks | 37% | 108 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 42% | 106 | 95 | |
| 29 | Lakers | 58% | 108 | 90 | |
Thursday, March 17, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 47% | 101 | 101 | |
| 12 | Pacers | 53% | 102 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 65% | 107 | 99 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 35% | 102 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hornets | 46% | 100 | 109 | |
| 15 | Heat | 54% | 102 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nuggets | 32% | 100 | 98 | |
| 7 | Hawks | 68% | 106 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 40% | 102 | 102 | |
| 24 | Bulls | 60% | 106 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 34% | 97 | 86 | |
| 20 | Bucks | 66% | 102 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 16% | 96 | 110 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 110 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 26% | 98 | 69 | |
| 10 | Jazz | 74% | 107 | 103 | |
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 53% | 109 | 130 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 47% | 108 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 25% | 98 | 99 | |
| 6 | Hornets | 75% | 108 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 25% | 102 | 98 | |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 75% | 111 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bulls | 37% | 102 | 96 | |
| 14 | Wizards | 63% | 107 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 53% | 103 | 118 | |
| 18 | Pistons | 47% | 102 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Timberwolves | 52% | 102 | 114 | |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 48% | 101 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 46% | 105 | 122 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 54% | 107 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 43% | 107 | 123 | |
| 17 | Kings | 57% | 110 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 18% | 102 | 85 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 82% | 115 | 121 | |
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Celtics | 45% | 103 | 98 | |
| 12 | Pacers | 55% | 105 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nuggets | 40% | 102 | 110 | |
| 24 | Magic | 60% | 105 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 41% | 103 | 114 | |
| 27 | Nets | 59% | 106 | 131 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 53% | 104 | 107 | |
| 19 | Bucks | 47% | 103 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 25% | 97 | 87 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 75% | 106 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 59% | 110 | 106 | |
| 29 | Lakers | 41% | 107 | 98 | |
Monday, March 14, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 40% | 104 | 107 | |
| 8 | Hornets | 60% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nuggets | 37% | 98 | 119 | |
| 16 | Heat | 63% | 103 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bulls | 27% | 99 | 109 | |
| 6 | Raptors | 73% | 108 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 47% | 104 | 81 | |
| 17 | Wizards | 53% | 105 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 27% | 97 | 81 | |
| 7 | Rockets | 73% | 106 | 130 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 27% | 105 | 94 | |
| 4 | Thunder | 73% | 114 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 53% | 110 | 104 | |
| 27 | Suns | 47% | 109 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 58% | 102 | 85 | |
| 10 | Jazz | 42% | 99 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 16% | 104 | 107 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 84% | 117 | 125 | |
Sunday, March 13, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 48% | 106 | 114 | |
| 5 | Clippers | 52% | 107 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 42% | 99 | 75 | |
| 10 | Hawks | 58% | 102 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 54% | 104 | 108 | |
| 19 | Kings | 46% | 103 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 109 | |
| 27 | Nets | 51% | 104 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 58% | 108 | 90 | |
| 29 | Lakers | 42% | 105 | 87 | |
Saturday, March 12, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 46% | 103 | 112 | |
| 11 | Mavericks | 54% | 104 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 39% | 103 | 109 | |
| 6 | Hornets | 61% | 107 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 66% | 107 | 125 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 34% | 101 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 33% | 97 | 104 | |
| 8 | Raptors | 67% | 103 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 21% | 92 | 83 | |
| 9 | Hawks | 79% | 103 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 42% | 104 | 92 | |
| 21 | Bucks | 58% | 107 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 25% | 100 | 85 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 75% | 109 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 47% | 104 | 100 | |
| 23 | Nuggets | 53% | 105 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Suns | 12% | 102 | 116 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 88% | 119 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 35% | 102 | 84 | |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 65% | 108 | 121 | |
Friday, March 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 36% | 100 | 103 | |
| 6 | Hornets | 64% | 105 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 51% | 105 | 89 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 49% | 104 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 44% | 107 | 102 | |
| 10 | Celtics | 56% | 109 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 51% | 102 | 118 | |
| 19 | Bulls | 49% | 101 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pelicans | 47% | 100 | 114 | |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 53% | 101 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 16% | 103 | 99 | |
| 3 | Thunder | 84% | 116 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 43% | 98 | 93 | |
| 14 | Jazz | 57% | 101 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 41% | 105 | 107 | |
| 18 | Kings | 59% | 108 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 105 | 112 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 78% | 115 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 24% | 100 | 94 | |
| 5 | Clippers | 76% | 110 | 101 | |
Thursday, March 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 44% | 101 | 96 | |
| 8 | Raptors | 56% | 103 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 16% | 94 | 101 | |
| 1 | Spurs | 84% | 108 | 109 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 31% | 103 | 98 | |
| 24 | Nuggets | 69% | 110 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 112 | 120 | |
| 29 | Lakers | 22% | 101 | 108 | |
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 30% | 100 | 113 | |
| 7 | Hornets | 70% | 107 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 72% | 111 | 118 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 28% | 103 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 32% | 99 | 96 | |
| 8 | Celtics | 68% | 106 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 101 | 108 | |
| 21 | Bucks | 48% | 100 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 42% | 104 | 102 | |
| 14 | Mavericks | 58% | 107 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 49% | 105 | 128 | |
| 27 | Suns | 51% | 106 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 36% | 106 | 108 | |
| 3 | Thunder | 64% | 111 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 66% | 111 | 120 | |
| 18 | Kings | 34% | 106 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Jazz | 20% | 99 | 94 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 80% | 110 | 115 | |
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 19% | 97 | 99 | |
| 7 | Raptors | 81% | 109 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 76% | 108 | 116 | |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 24% | 98 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 49% | 105 | 94 | |
| 26 | Nuggets | 51% | 106 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 46% | 98 | 91 | |
| 11 | Jazz | 54% | 100 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 44% | 104 | 109 | |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 106 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 54% | 106 | 98 | |
| 28 | Lakers | 46% | 104 | 107 | |