Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, April 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Heat | 53% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Knicks | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Mavericks | 74% | 123 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, April 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Hornets | 55% | 109 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Lakers | 69% | 119 | 125 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 24% | 110 | 113 |
| 21 | Hawks | 76% | 120 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Thunder | 16% | 105 | 100 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 84% | 120 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Nets | 43% | 115 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Bucks | 71% | 114 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Raptors | 14% | 98 | 85 |
 | 3 | Timberwolves | 86% | 114 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Magic | 39% | 105 | 117 |
 | 7 | Pelicans | 61% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, April 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 75% | 120 | 128 |
| 28 | Raptors | 25% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucks | 73% | 120 | 113 |
| 26 | Wizards | 27% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Thunder | 38% | 110 | 105 |
| 7 | 76ers | 62% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 53% | 108 | 99 |
| 12 | Heat | 47% | 107 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 32% | 102 | 106 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 68% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Nuggets | 77% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cavaliers | 68% | 117 | 129 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 25 | Jazz | 32% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 47% | 116 | 100 |
| 6 | Warriors | 53% | 118 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Clippers | 48% | 114 | 95 |
| 17 | Kings | 52% | 115 | 109 |
Monday, April 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 91% | 120 | 118 |
| 27 | Hornets | 9% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 57% | 110 | 110 |
| 29 | Pistons | 43% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 29% | 112 | 111 |
| 11 | Pacers | 71% | 120 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 18% | 97 | 103 |
| 15 | Magic | 82% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 46% | 112 | 113 |
 | 20 | Bulls | 54% | 113 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 41% | 111 | 124 |
| 6 | Pelicans | 59% | 114 | 111 |
Sunday, March 31, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cavaliers | 47% | 109 | 101 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 53% | 110 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 54% | 114 | 116 |
| 21 | Nets | 46% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 77% | 118 | 130 |
| 26 | Hornets | 23% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 74% | 116 | 135 |
| 29 | Raptors | 26% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 72% | 115 | 119 |
| 25 | Wizards | 28% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 47% | 112 | 113 |
| 6 | Knicks | 53% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 55% | 115 | 125 |
| 17 | Rockets | 45% | 113 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 30% | 102 | 109 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 70% | 109 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 69% | 117 | 117 |
| 23 | Spurs | 31% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 26% | 110 | 106 |
| 18 | Kings | 74% | 119 | 127 |
Saturday, March 30, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 62% | 114 | 104 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 38% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 35% | 102 | 88 |
| 17 | Magic | 65% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 57% | 117 | 122 |
| 21 | Hawks | 43% | 114 | 113 |
Friday, March 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 78% | 118 | 115 |
| 28 | Hornets | 22% | 107 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 44% | 119 | 90 |
| 13 | Pacers | 56% | 121 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 49% | 109 | 100 |
| 12 | Magic | 51% | 110 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 40% | 115 | 96 |
| 25 | Wizards | 60% | 118 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 47% | 108 | 108 |
| 22 | Nets | 53% | 109 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 37% | 108 | 114 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 63% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 24% | 103 | 82 |
| 16 | Heat | 76% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 49% | 114 | 103 |
| 15 | Thunder | 51% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 67% | 114 | 126 |
| 23 | Spurs | 33% | 107 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 48% | 106 | 111 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 52% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 68% | 117 | 101 |
| 26 | Jazz | 32% | 110 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mavericks | 54% | 118 | 107 |
| 17 | Kings | 46% | 116 | 103 |
Thursday, March 28, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 120 | 122 |
| 22 | Hawks | 22% | 109 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 46% | 113 | 100 |
| 5 | Pelicans | 54% | 115 | 107 |
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 75% | 113 | 111 |
| 27 | Hornets | 25% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 44% | 108 | 101 |
| 12 | Magic | 56% | 110 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 62% | 116 | 122 |
| 26 | Wizards | 38% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 106 | 106 |
| 21 | Hawks | 74% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 51% | 114 | 108 |
| 17 | 76ers | 49% | 113 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 81% | 115 | 145 |
| 29 | Raptors | 19% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 55% | 116 | 99 |
| 19 | Bulls | 45% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Lakers | 46% | 111 | 136 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 54% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 10% | 99 | 91 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 90% | 117 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 43% | 109 | 132 |
| 13 | Thunder | 57% | 111 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 44% | 115 | 118 |
| 24 | Jazz | 56% | 117 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Suns | 47% | 112 | 104 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 53% | 113 | 97 |
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 61% | 110 | 113 |
| 21 | Heat | 39% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 38% | 116 | 128 |
| 4 | Bucks | 62% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 47% | 111 | 119 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 53% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 49% | 117 | 132 |
| 15 | Kings | 51% | 118 | 96 |
Monday, March 25, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 25% | 102 | 92 |
| 18 | Cavaliers | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 121 | 118 |
| 21 | Hawks | 23% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 9% | 101 | 99 |
| 9 | Knicks | 91% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 66% | 113 | 96 |
| 28 | Raptors | 34% | 107 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 28% | 109 | 107 |
| 19 | Bulls | 72% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 101 | 92 |
| 17 | Rockets | 78% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 74% | 120 | 102 |
| 25 | Spurs | 26% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 28% | 103 | 103 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 72% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 69% | 124 | 115 |
| 24 | Jazz | 31% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 38% | 111 | 96 |
| 15 | Kings | 62% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 43% | 117 | 133 |
| 13 | Clippers | 57% | 120 | 116 |
Sunday, March 24, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 82% | 119 | 114 |
| 30 | Pistons | 18% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 38% | 111 | 121 |
| 10 | Clippers | 62% | 116 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cavaliers | 51% | 106 | 84 |
| 17 | Heat | 49% | 105 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 48% | 116 | 93 |
| 5 | Bucks | 52% | 117 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 42% | 107 | 110 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 48% | 117 | 145 |
| 16 | Lakers | 52% | 118 | 150 |
Saturday, March 23, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 31% | 105 | 93 |
| 9 | Knicks | 69% | 112 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kings | 45% | 108 | 109 |
| 12 | Magic | 55% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 29% | 108 | 91 |
| 22 | Hawks | 71% | 116 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 40% | 113 | 109 |
| 26 | Wizards | 60% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 111 | 124 |
| 20 | Bulls | 36% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 29% | 108 | 119 |
| 16 | Rockets | 71% | 116 | 147 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 70% | 118 | 131 |
| 23 | Spurs | 30% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 78% | 110 | 114 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 99 | 111 |
Friday, March 22, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 87% | 121 | 129 |
| 29 | Pistons | 13% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 84% | 120 | 123 |
| 30 | Raptors | 16% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 51% | 108 | 111 |
| 17 | Heat | 49% | 107 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cavaliers | 38% | 104 | 91 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 62% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 46% | 107 | 99 |
| 23 | Spurs | 54% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 38% | 116 | 123 |
| 6 | Warriors | 62% | 120 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 77% | 116 | 125 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 39% | 112 | 94 |
| 11 | Lakers | 61% | 116 | 101 |