Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Heat | 83 | ||
 | 25 | Celtics | 75 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Lakers | 51% | 103 | 80 |
 | 29 | Knicks | 49% | 102 | 92 |
Saturday, January 31, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
 | 28 | Magic | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Raptors | 45% | 101 | 120 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Pistons | 43% | 102 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Thunder | 74 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Timberwolves | 30% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Bucks | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Hornets | 38% | 98 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, January 30, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 94 | ||
| 30 | 76ers | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 99 | 99 |
| 5 | Hawks | 65% | 104 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 93 | ||
| 25 | Celtics | 87 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 65% | 105 | 127 |
 | 24 | Nets | 35% | 99 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 90 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 62% | 107 | 103 |
 | 16 | Pelicans | 38% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 93 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 72 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 75% | 107 | 100 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 22 | Jazz | 25% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bulls | 93 | ||
| 9 | Suns | 99 | ||
Thursday, January 29, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 115 | ||
| 28 | Magic | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 30% | 98 | 69 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 70% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 82 | ||
| 17 | Pacers | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 67% | 105 | 118 |
| 27 | Lakers | 33% | 99 | 123 |
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 103 | 94 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 63% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 69 | ||
| 30 | 76ers | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 19% | 92 | 102 |
| 6 | Hawks | 81% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 102 | ||
| 10 | Raptors | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 37% | 103 | 94 |
| 7 | Rockets | 63% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Celtics | 98 | ||
| 26 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 42% | 103 | 93 |
| 15 | Pelicans | 58% | 106 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 92 | ||
| 29 | Knicks | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 17% | 89 | 86 |
| 2 | Spurs | 83% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 94 | ||
| 22 | Jazz | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 34% | 101 | 98 |
| 11 | Suns | 66% | 106 | 106 |
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 62% | 102 | 104 |
| 17 | Pacers | 38% | 97 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 103 | ||
| 18 | Pistons | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 40% | 93 | 109 |
| 14 | Heat | 60% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 109 | ||
| 7 | Mavericks | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 21% | 98 | 113 |
| 1 | Warriors | 79% | 109 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 98 | ||
| 27 | Lakers | 92 | ||
Monday, January 26, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 94 | ||
| 9 | Grizzlies | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 25% | 92 | 74 |
| 16 | Pelicans | 75% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 84 | ||
| 5 | Thunder | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 38% | 98 | 99 |
| 22 | Jazz | 62% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 98 | ||
| 3 | Clippers | 102 | ||
Sunday, January 25, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 38% | 95 | 96 |
| 12 | Bulls | 62% | 99 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 98 | ||
| 4 | Cavaliers | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 48% | 108 | 120 |
| 11 | Suns | 52% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 106 | ||
| 15 | Pelicans | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 15% | 96 | 100 |
| 6 | Hawks | 85% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 106 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 19% | 92 | 95 |
| 2 | Spurs | 81% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 110 | ||
| 10 | Raptors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 14% | 97 | 111 |
| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 117 | ||
| 18 | Nuggets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 70% | 107 | 99 |
| 27 | Lakers | 30% | 100 | 87 |
Saturday, January 24, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 71 | ||
| 22 | Hornets | 76 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 47% | 101 | 86 |
| 21 | Bucks | 53% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 83 | ||
| 9 | Grizzlies | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 43% | 96 | 73 |
| 24 | Jazz | 57% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wizards | 96 | ||
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 103 | ||
Friday, January 23, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 78% | 105 | 91 |
| 30 | 76ers | 22% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 93 | ||
| 7 | Hawks | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 27% | 97 | 90 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 73% | 105 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 87 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 55% | 101 | 106 |
| 29 | Knicks | 45% | 99 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 102 | ||
| 6 | Mavericks | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 62% | 107 | 92 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 38% | 103 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lakers | 85 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 32% | 103 | 100 |
| 19 | Nuggets | 68% | 109 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 21% | 99 | 101 |
| 1 | Warriors | 79% | 110 | 126 |
Thursday, January 22, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 62% | 102 | 81 |
| 13 | Bulls | 38% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 101 | ||
| 21 | Bucks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 31% | 100 | 90 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 84 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 123 | ||
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 45% | 94 | 76 |
| 23 | Hornets | 55% | 95 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 92 | ||
| 5 | Cavaliers | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 51% | 97 | 98 |
| 30 | 76ers | 49% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 91 | ||
| 7 | Hawks | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 34% | 99 | 118 |
| 18 | Pistons | 66% | 104 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 86 | ||
| 9 | Grizzlies | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 75% | 112 | 98 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 25% | 102 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lakers | 80 | ||
| 15 | Pelicans | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 48% | 99 | 105 |
| 14 | Wizards | 52% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 113 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 41% | 98 | 103 |
| 20 | Kings | 59% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| 3 | Warriors | 126 | ||
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 56% | 98 | 94 |
| 16 | Heat | 44% | 96 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 109 | ||
| 19 | Nuggets | 99 | ||
Monday, January 19, 2015
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 36% | 97 | 80 |
| 23 | Hornets | 64% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 76 | ||
| 14 | Wizards | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 30% | 98 | 82 |
| 6 | Hawks | 70% | 105 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 93 | ||
| 1 | Clippers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 21% | 101 | 79 |
| 3 | Warriors | 79% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
| 9 | Grizzlies | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 25% | 93 | 98 |
| 5 | Rockets | 75% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pelicans | 92 | ||
| 29 | Knicks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 51% | 103 | 92 |
| 20 | Bucks | 49% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 94 | ||
| 8 | Cavaliers | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 29% | 99 | 94 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lakers | 100 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 115 | ||