Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, April 11, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bucks | 38% | 101 | 98 |
 | 20 | Magic | 62% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Hornets | 37% | 104 | 114 |
 | 10 | Celtics | 63% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Nets | 37% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Timberwolves | 48% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 58% | 106 | 121 |
 | 26 | Pelicans | 42% | 103 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Lakers | 11% | 99 | 79 |
 | 4 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Mavericks | 35% | 96 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, April 10, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Lakers | 19% | 101 | 110 |
| 6 | Rockets | 81% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 41% | 101 | 91 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 49% | 103 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 62% | 102 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 21% | 97 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 38% | 101 | 96 |
 | 16 | Heat | 62% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Raptors | 62% | 104 | 93 |
 | 22 | Knicks | 38% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 55% | 105 | 98 |
| 18 | Wizards | 45% | 103 | 113 |
Saturday, April 9, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 45% | 105 | 121 |
| 25 | Pelicans | 55% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celtics | 33% | 101 | 107 |
| 4 | Hawks | 67% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 82% | 113 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 63% | 108 | 102 |
| 17 | Bulls | 37% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 32% | 105 | 106 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 10 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 111 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 62% | 112 | 112 |
| 20 | Kings | 38% | 108 | 114 |
Friday, April 8, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 18% | 97 | 99 |
| 8 | Hornets | 82% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 47% | 103 | 109 |
| 19 | Magic | 53% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 54% | 104 | 109 |
| 28 | 76ers | 46% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 25% | 100 | 109 |
| 11 | Celtics | 75% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 41% | 103 | 99 |
 | 16 | Pistons | 59% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 42% | 99 | 98 |
| 7 | Raptors | 58% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 36% | 101 | 102 |
| 25 | Pelicans | 64% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 35% | 100 | 93 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 65% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 108 | 98 |
| 23 | Nuggets | 24% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 51% | 101 | 102 |
| 10 | Jazz | 49% | 100 | 99 |
Thursday, April 7, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 87 |
| 5 | Hawks | 57% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 42% | 101 | 98 |
| 14 | Heat | 58% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 25% | 103 | 124 |
| 8 | Rockets | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 42% | 108 | 105 |
| 19 | Kings | 58% | 110 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 40% | 103 | 101 |
| 1 | Warriors | 60% | 107 | 112 |
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cavaliers | 45% | 101 | 109 |
| 12 | Pacers | 55% | 103 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 41% | 103 | 108 |
| 19 | Magic | 59% | 107 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 23% | 98 | 103 |
| 18 | Wizards | 77% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pelicans | 19% | 100 | 97 |
| 9 | Celtics | 81% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 57% | 102 | 111 |
| 24 | Knicks | 43% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 49% | 107 | 86 |
| 15 | Mavericks | 51% | 108 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 54% | 111 | 115 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 79% | 110 | 91 |
| 29 | Lakers | 21% | 99 | 81 |
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pelicans | 54% | 105 | 93 |
| 28 | 76ers | 46% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 41% | 100 | 90 |
| 7 | Raptors | 59% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 45% | 102 | 89 |
| 17 | Heat | 55% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 21% | 99 | 90 |
| 6 | Hawks | 79% | 111 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bulls | 57% | 104 | 92 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 43% | 102 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 74% | 109 | 109 |
| 23 | Bucks | 26% | 100 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 69% | 111 | 124 |
| 21 | Nuggets | 31% | 104 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 64% | 99 | 88 |
| 10 | Jazz | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 110 | 115 |
| 20 | Kings | 47% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 14% | 102 | 124 |
| 1 | Warriors | 86% | 117 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 16% | 99 | 81 |
| 5 | Clippers | 84% | 113 | 103 |
Sunday, April 3, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pelicans | 51% | 104 | 106 |
| 29 | Nets | 49% | 103 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hornets | 32% | 101 | 103 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 68% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 53% | 110 | 110 |
| 9 | Rockets | 47% | 109 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 54% | 107 | 88 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 46% | 105 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 42% | 103 | 109 |
| 11 | Clippers | 58% | 106 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Grizzlies | 39% | 100 | 107 |
| 19 | Magic | 61% | 104 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jazz | 69% | 105 | 101 |
| 27 | Suns | 31% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 49% | 103 | 102 |
| 21 | Bucks | 51% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 53% | 101 | 92 |
| 24 | Knicks | 47% | 100 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 17% | 103 | 111 |
| 2 | Warriors | 83% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 72% | 110 | 107 |
| 30 | Lakers | 28% | 102 | 100 |
Saturday, April 2, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 71% | 107 | 115 |
| 28 | 76ers | 29% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 37% | 103 | 94 |
| 13 | Bulls | 63% | 107 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 19% | 94 | 95 |
| 2 | Spurs | 81% | 106 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 41% | 106 | 115 |
| 22 | Nuggets | 59% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 38% | 102 | 93 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 106 | 110 |
Friday, April 1, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 18% | 99 | 91 |
| 5 | Hornets | 82% | 111 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mavericks | 41% | 104 | 98 |
| 17 | Pistons | 59% | 107 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 27% | 98 | 91 |
| 21 | Knicks | 73% | 107 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 104 | 110 |
| 8 | Hawks | 51% | 105 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raptors | 63% | 104 | 99 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 37% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 44% | 102 | 110 |
| 23 | Bucks | 56% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 28% | 97 | 85 |
| 7 | Jazz | 72% | 105 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 106 | 112 |
| 19 | Kings | 48% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 20% | 104 | 109 |
| 1 | Warriors | 80% | 116 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 66% | 110 | 106 |
| 27 | Suns | 34% | 104 | 99 |
Thursday, March 31, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Nets | 12% | 98 | 87 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 88% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 33% | 99 | 114 |
| 11 | Pacers | 67% | 105 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 38% | 105 | 103 |
| 9 | Rockets | 62% | 110 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nuggets | 51% | 105 | 95 |
| 26 | Pelicans | 49% | 104 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 35% | 104 | 117 |
| 4 | Thunder | 65% | 109 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celtics | 48% | 107 | 109 |
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 52% | 108 | 116 |
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hawks | 48% | 102 | 97 |
| 10 | Raptors | 52% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nuggets | 47% | 102 | 109 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 53% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Suns | 38% | 104 | 94 |
| 23 | Bucks | 62% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 59% | 108 | 99 |
| 20 | Timberwolves | 41% | 105 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 41% | 103 | 89 |
| 18 | Mavericks | 59% | 106 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pelicans | 13% | 92 | 92 |
| 3 | Spurs | 87% | 108 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 57% | 105 | 103 |
| 9 | Jazz | 43% | 103 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 49% | 107 | 111 |
| 21 | Kings | 51% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 68% | 107 | 100 |
| 29 | Lakers | 32% | 101 | 102 |
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 33% | 100 | 98 |
| 11 | Pacers | 67% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 33% | 100 | 105 |
| 22 | Magic | 67% | 106 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hornets | 72% | 109 | 100 |
| 29 | 76ers | 28% | 101 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 55% | 109 | 82 |
| 16 | Pistons | 45% | 107 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 37% | 105 | 106 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 63% | 109 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wizards | 22% | 105 | 94 |
| 1 | Warriors | 78% | 115 | 102 |