Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 83% | 116 | 124 |
 | 30 | Pistons | 17% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Magic | 44% | 112 | 104 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Celtics | 85% | 120 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Bucks | 36% | 111 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Knicks | 62% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Heat | 55% | 110 | 97 |
 | 20 | Raptors | 45% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Hornets | 16% | 104 | 112 |
 | 7 | Pelicans | 84% | 118 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Mavericks | 52% | 117 | 110 |
 | 15 | Lakers | 48% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Nets | 69% | 112 | 103 |
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Tuesday, January 16, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Thunder | 39% | 112 | 117 |
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Monday, January 15, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 27% | 106 | 115 |
| 6 | 76ers | 73% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pelicans | 57% | 116 | 120 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 43% | 113 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 33% | 103 | 98 |
| 11 | Knicks | 67% | 110 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 38% | 115 | 129 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 31% | 115 | 99 |
| 20 | Hawks | 69% | 123 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bulls | 36% | 105 | 91 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 64% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 47% | 108 | 96 |
| 15 | Nets | 53% | 110 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 67% | 116 | 105 |
| 17 | Raptors | 33% | 109 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 19 | Jazz | 62% | 122 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 58% | 115 | 105 |
| 14 | Lakers | 42% | 112 | 112 |
Sunday, January 14, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 27% | 112 | 109 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 73% | 121 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 20% | 103 | 87 |
| 13 | Heat | 80% | 115 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kings | 41% | 117 | 142 |
| 10 | Bucks | 59% | 120 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 46% | 107 | 105 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 54% | 109 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 75% | 117 | 127 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 107 | 116 |
Saturday, January 13, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 19% | 102 | 113 |
| 1 | Celtics | 81% | 115 | 145 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 33% | 117 | 127 |
| 15 | Hawks | 67% | 123 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 66% | 110 | 106 |
| 23 | Grizzlies | 34% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 28% | 112 | 118 |
| 10 | Bucks | 72% | 121 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 25% | 105 | 100 |
| 6 | Thunder | 75% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 44% | 111 | 118 |
| 18 | Mavericks | 56% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 67% | 114 | 122 |
| 28 | Spurs | 33% | 107 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Lakers | 46% | 112 | 125 |
| 19 | Jazz | 54% | 114 | 132 |
Friday, January 12, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 41% | 113 | 93 |
| 11 | 76ers | 59% | 117 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 39% | 120 | 126 |
| 13 | Hawks | 61% | 124 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Rockets | 75% | 116 | 112 |
| 30 | Pistons | 25% | 106 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Magic | 40% | 104 | 96 |
| 17 | Heat | 60% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Warriors | 48% | 109 | 140 |
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 110 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 62% | 111 | 128 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 38% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 10% | 96 | 93 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 90% | 115 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 42% | 111 | 99 |
| 27 | Spurs | 58% | 114 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 52% | 116 | 113 |
| 22 | Jazz | 48% | 115 | 145 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 41% | 110 | 113 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 59% | 114 | 125 |
Thursday, January 11, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nets | 41% | 108 | 102 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 59% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 59% | 118 | 102 |
| 6 | Bucks | 41% | 115 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 106 | 77 |
| 3 | Thunder | 81% | 119 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 55% | 114 | 124 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 45% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 48% | 112 | 127 |
| 12 | Lakers | 52% | 113 | 109 |
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Timberwolves | 25% | 103 | 120 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 68% | 117 | 123 |
| 29 | Hornets | 32% | 110 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 58% | 116 | 130 |
| 30 | Pistons | 42% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 33% | 117 | 104 |
| 23 | Pacers | 67% | 123 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 45% | 117 | 132 |
| 12 | Hawks | 55% | 119 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 59% | 113 | 128 |
| 17 | Heat | 41% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 45% | 105 | 119 |
| 19 | Bulls | 55% | 107 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 47% | 113 | 141 |
| 11 | Warriors | 53% | 114 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 66% | 118 | 111 |
| 24 | Jazz | 34% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 27% | 108 | 120 |
| 3 | Clippers | 73% | 117 | 126 |
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kings | 71% | 120 | 131 |
| 29 | Pistons | 29% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 65% | 108 | 113 |
| 25 | Magic | 35% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 104 | 84 |
| 6 | Knicks | 80% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 33% | 109 | 120 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 67% | 116 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 45% | 111 | 131 |
| 16 | Lakers | 55% | 112 | 132 |
Monday, January 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 68% | 110 | 119 |
| 30 | Hornets | 32% | 103 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 62% | 119 | 131 |
| 18 | Pacers | 38% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 77% | 122 | 136 |
| 27 | Wizards | 23% | 112 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 40% | 105 | 113 |
| 17 | Heat | 60% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 31% | 113 | 132 |
| 9 | Bucks | 69% | 120 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Suns | 37% | 111 | 111 |
| 4 | Clippers | 63% | 116 | 138 |
Sunday, January 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 21% | 106 | 115 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 79% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 23% | 105 | 134 |
| 13 | Nets | 77% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 53% | 115 | 110 |
| 24 | Magic | 47% | 114 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 44% | 114 | 133 |
| 11 | Kings | 56% | 116 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 114 | 108 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 44% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 13% | 107 | 114 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 87% | 123 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Grizzlies | 30% | 106 | 121 |
| 4 | Suns | 70% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 40% | 112 | 133 |
| 8 | Warriors | 60% | 116 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 54% | 111 | 103 |
| 15 | Lakers | 46% | 110 | 106 |
Saturday, January 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 64% | 122 | 118 |
| 19 | Pacers | 36% | 117 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 72% | 119 | 121 |
| 26 | Wizards | 28% | 111 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 23% | 109 | 120 |
| 7 | 76ers | 77% | 120 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 65% | 118 | 108 |
| 23 | Rockets | 35% | 112 | 112 |
Friday, January 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 15% | 107 | 97 |
| 1 | Celtics | 85% | 123 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 46% | 125 | 116 |
| 18 | Pacers | 54% | 126 | 150 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 59% | 114 | 115 |
| 20 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 26% | 111 | 90 |
| 10 | Cavaliers | 74% | 120 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 33% | 110 | 128 |
| 3 | 76ers | 67% | 116 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 27% | 102 | 91 |
| 21 | Bulls | 73% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 60% | 109 | 122 |
| 23 | Rockets | 40% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 49% | 112 | 111 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 51% | 113 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 111 | 103 |
| 22 | Mavericks | 65% | 117 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Magic | 28% | 104 | 122 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 72% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 46% | 109 | 97 |
| 14 | Suns | 54% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 19% | 110 | 109 |
| 7 | Warriors | 81% | 123 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 45% | 107 | 127 |
| 19 | Lakers | 55% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 48% | 115 | 130 |
| 16 | Kings | 52% | 116 | 135 |
Thursday, January 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 73% | 123 | 125 |
| 28 | Spurs | 27% | 114 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 47% | 112 | 130 |
| 8 | Warriors | 53% | 113 | 127 |