Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, April 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Lakers | 51% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 103 | ||
 | 23 | Nets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, April 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Mavericks | 46% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Magic | 77% | 111 | 115 |
 | 26 | Hornets | 23% | 100 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Thunder | 112 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Celtics | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Knicks | 53% | 109 | 100 |
 | 21 | Bulls | 47% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Heat | 119 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 37% | 106 | 90 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 63% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Raptors | 117 | ||
 | 5 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 7 | Pelicans | 74% | 116 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Timberwolves | 46% | 109 | 87 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 13 | Clippers | 131 | ||
Thursday, April 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 47% | 109 | 109 |
| 15 | Heat | 53% | 110 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 109 | ||
| 6 | Knicks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Warriors | 53% | 113 | 133 |
| 13 | Rockets | 47% | 111 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 100 | ||
| 16 | Clippers | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| 5 | Mavericks | 109 | ||
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 89 | ||
| 26 | Hornets | 86 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 69% | 119 | 125 |
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 112 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 113 | ||
| 20 | Hawks | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 16% | 105 | 100 |
| 1 | Celtics | 84% | 120 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 111 | ||
| 23 | Nets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 29% | 106 | 111 |
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 114 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 85 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Magic | 39% | 105 | 117 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 61% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 122 | ||
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 47% | 116 | 100 |
| 11 | Warriors | 53% | 118 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 38% | 110 | 105 |
| 6 | 76ers | 62% | 115 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 128 | ||
| 27 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 73% | 120 | 113 |
| 30 | Wizards | 27% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Knicks | 99 | ||
| 16 | Heat | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 23% | 106 | 105 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 77% | 116 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 129 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 48% | 114 | 95 |
| 18 | Kings | 52% | 115 | 109 |
Monday, April 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 91% | 120 | 118 |
| 27 | Hornets | 9% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 110 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 29% | 112 | 111 |
| 17 | Pacers | 71% | 120 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 103 | ||
| 19 | Magic | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 46% | 112 | 113 |
| 21 | Bulls | 54% | 113 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 124 | ||
| 5 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
Sunday, March 31, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 47% | 109 | 101 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 53% | 110 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 116 | ||
| 22 | Nets | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 77% | 118 | 130 |
| 27 | Hornets | 23% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 135 | ||
| 26 | Raptors | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 72% | 115 | 119 |
| 30 | Wizards | 28% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Thunder | 113 | ||
| 7 | Knicks | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 55% | 115 | 125 |
| 13 | Rockets | 45% | 113 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 109 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 69% | 117 | 117 |
| 25 | Spurs | 31% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 106 | ||
| 19 | Kings | 127 | ||
Saturday, March 30, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| 7 | Pelicans | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Grizzlies | 35% | 102 | 88 |
| 19 | Magic | 65% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 122 | ||
| 20 | Hawks | 113 | ||
Friday, March 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 115 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 44% | 119 | 90 |
| 17 | Pacers | 56% | 121 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Clippers | 100 | ||
| 19 | Magic | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 40% | 115 | 96 |
| 30 | Wizards | 60% | 118 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 108 | ||
| 23 | Nets | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 76ers | 37% | 108 | 114 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 63% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 82 | ||
| 16 | Heat | 142 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 49% | 114 | 103 |
| 8 | Thunder | 51% | 115 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 126 | ||
| 25 | Spurs | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Timberwolves | 48% | 106 | 111 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 52% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rockets | 101 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 54% | 118 | 107 |
| 18 | Kings | 46% | 116 | 103 |
Thursday, March 28, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 122 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 46% | 113 | 100 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 54% | 115 | 107 |
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 111 | ||
| 28 | Hornets | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 44% | 108 | 101 |
| 18 | Magic | 56% | 110 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 122 | ||
| 29 | Wizards | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 106 | 106 |
| 20 | Hawks | 74% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 108 | ||
| 4 | 76ers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 81% | 115 | 145 |
| 25 | Raptors | 19% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 99 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 46% | 111 | 136 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 54% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 43% | 109 | 132 |
| 6 | Thunder | 57% | 111 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 118 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 47% | 112 | 104 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 53% | 113 | 97 |
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 92 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 38% | 116 | 128 |
| 4 | Bucks | 62% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 8 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 49% | 117 | 132 |
| 17 | Kings | 51% | 118 | 96 |
Monday, March 25, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 25% | 102 | 92 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 75% | 112 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 118 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 9% | 101 | 99 |
| 6 | Knicks | 91% | 120 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 96 | ||
| 25 | Raptors | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 28% | 109 | 107 |
| 20 | Bulls | 72% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 92 | ||
| 14 | Rockets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 74% | 120 | 102 |
| 26 | Spurs | 26% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 103 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 69% | 124 | 115 |
| 24 | Jazz | 31% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 96 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 43% | 117 | 133 |
| 13 | Clippers | 57% | 120 | 116 |
Sunday, March 24, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pelicans | 82% | 119 | 114 |
| 29 | Pistons | 18% | 106 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| 13 | Clippers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 51% | 106 | 84 |
| 16 | Heat | 49% | 105 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 93 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Warriors | 42% | 107 | 110 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 58% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 145 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 150 | ||