Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Pistons | 94 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Nets | 39% | 99 | 81 |
 | 18 | Knicks | 61% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 27 | Magic | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bobcats | 67% | 104 | 123 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Raptors | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Celtics | 33% | 98 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Bulls | 105 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Bucks | 17% | 94 | 77 |
 | 3 | Heat | 83% | 107 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Timberwolves | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Pelicans | 107 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Lakers | 102 | ||
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Tuesday, April 1, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 53% | 104 | 96 |
| 11 | Nets | 47% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 122 | ||
 | 7 | Mavericks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Lakers | 32% | 105 | 112 |
Monday, March 31, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 49% | 99 | 94 |
| 21 | Bobcats | 51% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 103 | ||
| 10 | Pacers | 77 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 27% | 100 | 95 |
| 16 | Hawks | 73% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bucks | 111 | ||
| 25 | Pistons | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Raptors | 31% | 96 | 83 |
| 3 | Heat | 69% | 102 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 80 | ||
| 11 | Bulls | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 58% | 109 | 114 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 42% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 102 | ||
| 19 | Pelicans | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 56% | 101 | 94 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 44% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 92 | ||
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 29 | Jazz | 83 | ||
Sunday, March 30, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 18% | 96 | 96 |
 | 4 | Thunder | 82% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 76 | ||
| 22 | Cavaliers | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 49% | 104 | 99 |
| 11 | Nets | 51% | 105 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 98 | ||
| 27 | Magic | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 60% | 96 | 107 |
| 24 | Celtics | 40% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 89 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 84 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 46% | 99 | 98 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 99 | ||
| 26 | Lakers | 115 | ||
Saturday, March 29, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 56% | 106 | 98 |
| 30 | 76ers | 44% | 104 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clippers | 118 | ||
| 4 | Rockets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 40% | 100 | 97 |
| 16 | Wizards | 60% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 100 | ||
| 7 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 69% | 104 | 88 |
| 27 | Bucks | 31% | 97 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pelicans | 80 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 96 | ||
Friday, March 28, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bobcats | 57% | 98 | 105 |
| 28 | Magic | 43% | 96 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Celtics | 103 | ||
| 13 | Raptors | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 54% | 97 | 78 |
| 17 | Wizards | 46% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 97 | ||
| 12 | Nets | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 69% | 105 | 110 |
| 23 | Pistons | 31% | 98 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 91 | ||
| 10 | Bulls | 74 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Lakers | 17% | 101 | 107 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 83% | 114 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 95 | ||
| 19 | Pelicans | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 21% | 98 | 81 |
| 4 | Thunder | 79% | 109 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 133 | ||
| 20 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 35% | 101 | 88 |
| 14 | Suns | 65% | 106 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 93 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 100 | ||
Thursday, March 27, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 107 | 100 |
| 16 | Hawks | 44% | 104 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 98 | ||
| 4 | Rockets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Lakers | 47% | 105 | 105 |
| 27 | Bucks | 53% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 109 | ||
| 7 | Mavericks | 103 | ||
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 49% | 98 | 111 |
| 22 | Bobcats | 51% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 99 | ||
| 17 | Wizards | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 54% | 101 | 99 |
| 25 | Celtics | 46% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 97 | ||
| 23 | Pistons | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 33% | 103 | 83 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 67% | 109 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Clippers | 96 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 51% | 96 | 83 |
| 11 | Pacers | 49% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 103 | ||
| 1 | Spurs | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 51% | 100 | 107 |
| 21 | Kings | 49% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 91 | ||
| 29 | Jazz | 87 | ||
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 64% | 102 | 100 |
| 25 | Cavaliers | 36% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 85 | ||
| 28 | Magic | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thunder | 42% | 103 | 119 |
| 7 | Mavericks | 58% | 106 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 96 | ||
| 26 | Lakers | 127 | ||
Monday, March 24, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 62% | 103 | 100 |
| 22 | Bobcats | 38% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 102 | ||
| 15 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 30% | 101 | 91 |
| 3 | Heat | 70% | 108 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 77 | ||
| 10 | Bulls | 89 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 37% | 97 | 92 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 104 | ||
| 19 | Pelicans | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 18% | 100 | 96 |
| 4 | Thunder | 82% | 112 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 91 | ||
| 1 | Spurs | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 49% | 103 | 114 |
| 29 | Jazz | 51% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 98 | ||
| 2 | Clippers | 106 | ||
Sunday, March 23, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 86 | ||
| 12 | Raptors | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 37% | 103 | 127 |
| 8 | Timberwolves | 63% | 107 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 102 | ||
| 20 | Nuggets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 36% | 99 | 107 |
| 21 | Kings | 64% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 107 | ||
| 7 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cavaliers | 23% | 95 | 106 |
| 17 | Knicks | 77% | 105 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 94 | ||
| 25 | Lakers | 103 | ||
Saturday, March 22, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 94 | ||
| 23 | Bobcats | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 71% | 106 | 118 |
| 22 | Cavaliers | 29% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 81 | ||
| 9 | Bulls | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 42% | 90 | 71 |
| 11 | Grizzlies | 58% | 92 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heat | 95 | ||
| 20 | Pelicans | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 44% | 98 | 88 |
| 28 | Jazz | 56% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 99 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 90 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 15% | 97 | 103 |
| 1 | Clippers | 85% | 111 | 112 |
Friday, March 21, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 79 | ||
| 9 | Pacers | 91 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Knicks | 74% | 108 | 93 |
| 30 | 76ers | 26% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 119 | ||
| 12 | Raptors | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pelicans | 35% | 100 | 111 |
| 15 | Hawks | 65% | 106 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Celtics | 98 | ||
| 13 | Nets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 36% | 93 | 86 |
| 3 | Heat | 64% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 106 | ||
| 8 | Mavericks | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 29% | 101 | 92 |
| 16 | Suns | 71% | 108 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 99 | ||
| 21 | Kings | 79 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 55% | 105 | 117 |
| 24 | Lakers | 45% | 103 | 107 |
Thursday, March 20, 2014
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 102 | ||
| 22 | Cavaliers | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 37% | 103 | 106 |
| 5 | Rockets | 63% | 108 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 103 | ||
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bucks | 19% | 95 | 110 |
| 6 | Warriors | 81% | 107 | 115 |