Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, February 10, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 65% | 109 | 108 |
 | 30 | Nets | 35% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Knicks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Pistons | 34% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Lakers | 122 | ||
 | 18 | Bucks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Pelicans | 122 | ||
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bulls | 54% | 106 | 97 |
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Thursday, February 9, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Magic | 62% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Mavericks | 47% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Celtics | 120 | ||
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Wednesday, February 8, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 111 | ||
| 29 | 76ers | 103 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 60% | 108 | 132 |
| 13 | Pacers | 40% | 104 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Wizards | 114 | ||
| 30 | Nets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 46% | 108 | 106 |
| 21 | Hawks | 54% | 109 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Lakers | 102 | ||
| 20 | Pistons | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 42% | 102 | 106 |
| 18 | Bucks | 58% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 91 | ||
| 9 | Grizzlies | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 60% | 101 | 127 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 40% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 109 | ||
| 24 | Timberwolves | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 8 | Clippers | 54% | 110 | 119 |
| 25 | Knicks | 46% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 92 | ||
| 1 | Warriors | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Celtics | 62% | 110 | 92 |
| 23 | Kings | 38% | 105 | 108 |
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 25% | 103 | 107 |
| 11 | Hornets | 75% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 104 | ||
| 4 | Rockets | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 104 | 114 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 52% | 105 | 113 |
Monday, February 6, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 121 | ||
| 25 | Knicks | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 51% | 107 | 140 |
| 10 | Wizards | 49% | 106 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Thunder | 90 | ||
| 12 | Pacers | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 36% | 105 | 109 |
| 5 | Raptors | 64% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 120 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 32% | 99 | 96 |
| 19 | Pistons | 68% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 106 | ||
| 22 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 43% | 101 | 115 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 57% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 87 | ||
| 16 | Nuggets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 57% | 101 | 74 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 43% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 112 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 107 | ||
Sunday, February 5, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 103 |
| 30 | Nets | 26% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 102 | ||
| 6 | Celtics | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 106 | 99 |
| 13 | Thunder | 55% | 108 | 105 |
Saturday, February 4, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 36% | 103 | 91 |
| 10 | Wizards | 64% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 86 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 39% | 102 | 84 |
| 12 | Pacers | 61% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| 20 | Heat | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 62% | 109 | 111 |
| 25 | Knicks | 38% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 5 | Jazz | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 51% | 109 | 137 |
| 27 | Suns | 49% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 97 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 103 | 107 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 49% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 106 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 109 | ||
Friday, February 3, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 94 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 66% | 111 | 106 |
| 30 | Nets | 34% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 108 | ||
| 19 | Pistons | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 29% | 104 | 117 |
| 3 | Rockets | 71% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 15 | Thunder | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 21% | 104 | 107 |
| 6 | Celtics | 79% | 115 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 117 | ||
| 13 | Nuggets | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 40% | 106 | 105 |
| 23 | Kings | 60% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 104 | ||
Thursday, February 2, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 108 | ||
| 10 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 20% | 103 | 113 |
| 3 | Rockets | 80% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 86 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 72% | 114 | 133 |
| 8 | Clippers | 28% | 106 | 120 |
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 98 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 30% | 104 | 97 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 70% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| 7 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 54% | 110 | 95 |
| 30 | Nets | 46% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 93 | ||
| 23 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 38% | 102 | 98 |
| 18 | Pistons | 62% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 95 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 109 | 119 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 88 | ||
| 6 | Jazz | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 58% | 110 | 124 |
| 28 | Suns | 42% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 128 | ||
| 13 | Thunder | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 11% | 101 | 111 |
| 1 | Warriors | 89% | 118 | 126 |
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 101 | ||
| 10 | Wizards | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 32% | 102 | 106 |
| 7 | Raptors | 68% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 83 | ||
| 3 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Thunder | 24% | 97 | 94 |
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 53% | 113 | 116 |
| 29 | Lakers | 47% | 112 | 120 |
Monday, January 30, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 119 | ||
| 26 | 76ers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 33% | 103 | 96 |
| 22 | Heat | 67% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 105 | ||
| 21 | Timberwolves | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 109 |
| 7 | Celtics | 65% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 97 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 61% | 107 | 115 |
| 27 | Suns | 39% | 103 | 96 |
Sunday, January 29, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 44% | 103 | 139 |
| 17 | Hawks | 56% | 105 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 91 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 58% | 111 | 101 |
| 14 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 107 | ||
| 24 | Pelicans | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 23% | 100 | 114 |
| 6 | Raptors | 77% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 108 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 21% | 91 | 105 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
Saturday, January 28, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 109 | ||
| 9 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 54% | 102 | 103 |
| 24 | Heat | 46% | 101 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 112 | ||
| 13 | Bucks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 16% | 103 | 98 |
| 1 | Warriors | 84% | 116 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 6 | Jazz | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 49% | 112 | 123 |
| 26 | Suns | 51% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 19 | Timberwolves | 129 | ||