Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 30 | Nets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Lakers | 102 | ||
 | 20 | Pistons | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Heat | 42% | 102 | 106 |
 | 18 | Bucks | 58% | 105 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Pelicans | 40% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Raptors | 109 | ||
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Knicks | 46% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 92 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Celtics | 62% | 110 | 92 |
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Tuesday, February 7, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 25% | 103 | 107 |
 | 11 | Hornets | 75% | 113 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Magic | 104 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 14 | Trail Blazers | 48% | 104 | 114 |
 | 16 | Mavericks | 52% | 105 | 113 |
Monday, February 6, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 121 | ||
| 25 | Knicks | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 51% | 107 | 140 |
| 10 | Wizards | 49% | 106 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Thunder | 90 | ||
| 12 | Pacers | 93 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 36% | 105 | 109 |
| 5 | Raptors | 64% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 120 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 32% | 99 | 96 |
| 19 | Pistons | 68% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 106 | ||
| 22 | Pelicans | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 43% | 101 | 115 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 57% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 87 | ||
| 16 | Nuggets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 57% | 101 | 74 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 43% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 112 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 107 | ||
Sunday, February 5, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 74% | 113 | 103 |
| 30 | Nets | 26% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 102 | ||
| 6 | Celtics | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 45% | 106 | 99 |
| 13 | Thunder | 55% | 108 | 105 |
Saturday, February 4, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 36% | 103 | 91 |
| 10 | Wizards | 64% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 86 | ||
| 21 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pistons | 39% | 102 | 84 |
| 12 | Pacers | 61% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 102 | ||
| 20 | Heat | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 62% | 109 | 111 |
| 25 | Knicks | 38% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 5 | Jazz | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 51% | 109 | 137 |
| 27 | Suns | 49% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 97 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 103 | 107 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 49% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 106 | ||
| 24 | Kings | 109 | ||
Friday, February 3, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 94 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 66% | 111 | 106 |
| 30 | Nets | 34% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 108 | ||
| 19 | Pistons | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 29% | 104 | 117 |
| 3 | Rockets | 71% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 15 | Thunder | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 21% | 104 | 107 |
| 6 | Celtics | 79% | 115 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 117 | ||
| 13 | Nuggets | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Suns | 40% | 106 | 105 |
| 23 | Kings | 60% | 109 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 108 | ||
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 104 | ||
Thursday, February 2, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 108 | ||
| 10 | Wizards | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 20% | 103 | 113 |
| 3 | Rockets | 80% | 115 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 86 | ||
| 2 | Spurs | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 72% | 114 | 133 |
| 8 | Clippers | 28% | 106 | 120 |
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 98 | ||
| 26 | Magic | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Timberwolves | 30% | 104 | 97 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 70% | 112 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| 7 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 54% | 110 | 95 |
| 30 | Nets | 46% | 109 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 93 | ||
| 23 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 38% | 102 | 98 |
| 18 | Pistons | 62% | 106 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 95 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 63% | 109 | 119 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 105 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 88 | ||
| 6 | Jazz | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 58% | 110 | 124 |
| 28 | Suns | 42% | 107 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 128 | ||
| 13 | Thunder | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 11% | 101 | 111 |
| 1 | Warriors | 89% | 118 | 126 |
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 101 | ||
| 10 | Wizards | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pelicans | 32% | 102 | 106 |
| 7 | Raptors | 68% | 109 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 83 | ||
| 3 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Thunder | 24% | 97 | 94 |
| 2 | Spurs | 76% | 106 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 98 | ||
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 53% | 113 | 116 |
| 29 | Lakers | 47% | 112 | 120 |
Monday, January 30, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 119 | ||
| 26 | 76ers | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 33% | 103 | 96 |
| 22 | Heat | 67% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 105 | ||
| 21 | Timberwolves | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pistons | 35% | 103 | 109 |
| 7 | Celtics | 65% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 97 | ||
| 17 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 61% | 107 | 115 |
| 27 | Suns | 39% | 103 | 96 |
Sunday, January 29, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Knicks | 44% | 103 | 139 |
| 17 | Hawks | 56% | 105 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Thunder | 91 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 58% | 111 | 101 |
| 14 | Pacers | 42% | 108 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 107 | ||
| 24 | Pelicans | 94 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 23% | 100 | 114 |
| 6 | Raptors | 77% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 108 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 21% | 91 | 105 |
| 2 | Spurs | 79% | 102 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 111 | ||
Saturday, January 28, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kings | 109 | ||
| 9 | Hornets | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 54% | 102 | 103 |
| 24 | Heat | 46% | 101 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 112 | ||
| 13 | Bucks | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 16% | 103 | 98 |
| 1 | Warriors | 84% | 116 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 102 | ||
| 6 | Jazz | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 49% | 112 | 123 |
| 26 | Suns | 51% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 109 | ||
| 19 | Timberwolves | 129 | ||
Friday, January 27, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 123 | ||
| 28 | 76ers | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nets | 14% | 104 | 116 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 86% | 119 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 111 | ||
| 15 | Pacers | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 29% | 102 | 98 |
| 8 | Celtics | 71% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 86 | ||
| 6 | Raptors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 53% | 108 | 107 |
| 25 | Knicks | 47% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Heat | 100 | ||
| 18 | Bulls | 88 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 68% | 105 | 103 |
| 24 | Pelicans | 32% | 98 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wizards | 112 | ||
| 17 | Hawks | 86 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 54% | 105 | 109 |
| 16 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 104 | 112 |
Thursday, January 26, 2017
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 98 | ||
| 12 | Thunder | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pacers | 49% | 105 | 109 |
| 22 | Timberwolves | 51% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Suns | 120 | ||
| 14 | Nuggets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Lakers | 17% | 97 | 88 |
| 5 | Jazz | 83% | 110 | 96 |