Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, November 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 41% | 98 | 113 |
 | 13 | Raptors | 59% | 101 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Magic | 32% | 91 | 83 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 68% | 97 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Thunder | 48% | 97 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Mavericks | 83% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bobcats | 48% | 92 | 88 |
 | 22 | Bucks | 52% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, November 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bulls | 25% | 92 | 93 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 75% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 24 | Hornets | 39% | 105 | 110 | |
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Knicks | 35% | 102 | 110 |
| 20 | Pacers | 65% | 107 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 32% | 95 | 90 |
| 11 | Hawks | 68% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Thunder | 17% | 88 | 94 |
| 2 | Magic | 83% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bobcats | 48% | 91 | 84 |
| 19 | 76ers | 52% | 92 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 54% | 101 | 91 |
| 15 | Wizards | 46% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 11% | 94 | 95 |
| 1 | Celtics | 89% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 23% | 90 | 85 | |
| 21 | Bucks | 77% | 100 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 69% | 103 | 97 |
 | 30 | Timberwolves | 31% | 96 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 35% | 100 | 91 |
| 14 | Jazz | 65% | 105 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 39% | 95 | 94 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 61% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Pistons | 19% | 87 | 81 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 81% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 41% | 99 | 91 |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 59% | 102 | 106 |
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 25% | 91 | 93 |
| 4 | Lakers | 75% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 56% | 98 | 101 |
| 24 | Kings | 44% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Raptors | 26% | 100 | 112 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 74% | 109 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 39% | 104 | 111 |
| 9 | Rockets | 61% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 41% | 96 | 102 |
| 26 | Hornets | 59% | 99 | 110 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 60% | 98 | 91 |
| 29 | Nets | 40% | 95 | 83 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Thunder | 38% | 89 | 100 |
| 16 | Heat | 62% | 93 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 17% | 99 | 108 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 83% | 112 | 114 |
Monday, November 16, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 58% | 99 | 115 |
| 22 | Bucks | 42% | 97 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 51% | 100 | 95 |
| 11 | Hawks | 49% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bobcats | 25% | 88 | 91 |
| 6 | Magic | 75% | 97 | 97 |
Sunday, November 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 37% | 95 | 101 |
| 6 | Lakers | 63% | 100 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Raptors | 43% | 109 | 100 |
| 12 | Suns | 57% | 111 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 38% | 91 | 101 |
| 21 | Thunder | 62% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 59% | 96 | 95 |
| 15 | Pistons | 41% | 93 | 90 |
Saturday, November 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 91 | 80 |
| 18 | Bobcats | 45% | 89 | 74 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Thunder | 22% | 88 | 101 |
| 4 | Spurs | 78% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 34% | 104 | 125 |
| 21 | Bucks | 66% | 109 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 30% | 98 | 87 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 70% | 105 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 31% | 92 | 88 |
| 17 | Bulls | 69% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 17% | 87 | 80 | |
| 13 | Heat | 83% | 100 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 20% | 92 | 103 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 80% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 41% | 94 | 106 |
| 15 | Wizards | 59% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 70% | 100 | 104 |
| 22 | Pacers | 30% | 93 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 23% | 94 | 98 | |
| 11 | Hawks | 77% | 104 | 121 |
Friday, November 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 53% | 99 | 112 |
| 20 | 76ers | 47% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Nets | 14% | 89 | 72 | |
| 5 | Magic | 86% | 103 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Warriors | 46% | 110 | 121 |
| 25 | Knicks | 54% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 23% | 92 | 97 |
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 102 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mavericks | 82% | 105 | 89 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 18% | 92 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 55% | 97 | 86 |
| 15 | Hornets | 45% | 95 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 66% | 102 | 100 |
| 26 | Kings | 34% | 97 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 32% | 99 | 79 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 68% | 105 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 61% | 103 | 104 |
| 27 | Clippers | 39% | 100 | 89 |
Thursday, November 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 32% | 101 | 102 |
| 8 | Lakers | 68% | 107 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 54% | 95 | 111 |
| 14 | Heat | 46% | 93 | 104 |
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 30% | 96 | 89 |
| 12 | Raptors | 70% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 41% | 108 | 94 |
| 22 | Pacers | 59% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 26% | 91 | 86 |
| 1 | Celtics | 74% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bobcats | 36% | 87 | 75 |
| 17 | Pistons | 64% | 91 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 56% | 98 | 82 |
| 29 | Nets | 44% | 96 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 58% | 106 | 114 |
| 25 | Knicks | 42% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 59% | 101 | 102 |
| 24 | Bucks | 41% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 52% | 97 | 102 |
| 5 | Magic | 48% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Grizzlies | 22% | 96 | 79 |
| 10 | Rockets | 78% | 106 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 46% | 98 | 83 |
| 11 | Spurs | 54% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Thunder | 46% | 94 | 83 |
| 28 | Clippers | 54% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 33% | 103 | 104 | |
| 8 | Suns | 67% | 109 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 103 | 107 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 29% | 95 | 84 |
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Thunder | 52% | 95 | 98 |
| 27 | Kings | 48% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 33% | 94 | 103 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 67% | 100 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 105 | 93 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 32% | 99 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 58% | 101 | 90 |
| 19 | Bulls | 42% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 38% | 97 | 76 |
| 13 | Heat | 62% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 55% | 94 | 93 |
| 15 | Bobcats | 45% | 92 | 81 |
Monday, November 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 42% | 98 | 124 |
| 15 | Spurs | 58% | 101 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 53% | 106 | 119 |
| 19 | 76ers | 47% | 105 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jazz | 63% | 106 | 95 |
| 26 | Knicks | 37% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 35% | 104 | 105 |
| 24 | Warriors | 65% | 109 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 48% | 97 | 112 | |
| 25 | Clippers | 52% | 98 | 84 |
Sunday, November 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hornets | 29% | 93 | 88 | |
| 5 | Lakers | 71% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 55% | 107 | 107 |
| 29 | Kings | 45% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 17% | 91 | 93 |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 83% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 71% | 99 | 74 |
| 26 | Thunder | 29% | 92 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 49% | 107 | 102 |
| 17 | Wizards | 51% | 108 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 40% | 95 | 81 |
| 19 | Pistons | 60% | 98 | 88 |
Saturday, November 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 52% | 104 | 100 |
| 14 | Hawks | 48% | 103 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Grizzlies | 35% | 100 | 110 |
| 22 | Clippers | 65% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kings | 16% | 94 | 104 |
| 8 | Jazz | 84% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 38% | 98 | 87 |
| 25 | Bucks | 62% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raptors | 25% | 96 | 101 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 75% | 105 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 39% | 89 | 90 |
| 19 | Bulls | 61% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 82% | 98 | 86 |
| 28 | Nets | 18% | 87 | 76 | |