Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 12, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Celtics | 56% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Raptors | 51% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Heat | 73% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | SuperSonics | 28% | 97 | 120 | |
 | 8 | Lakers | 72% | 105 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bobcats | 17% | 86 | 78 |
 | 2 | Pistons | 83% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nets | 51% | 91 | 95 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 49% | 90 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Mavericks | 38% | 94 | 80 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, March 11, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 61% | 96 | 92 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 51% | 96 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Magic | 51% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Knicks | 35% | 94 | 109 |
| 24 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Bucks | 51% | 96 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 65% | 92 | 90 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 25 | Jazz | 35% | 88 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Timberwolves | 18% | 91 | 102 |
| 6 | Suns | 82% | 102 | 110 |
Friday, March 10, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nuggets | 39% | 99 | 108 |
| 15 | Raptors | 61% | 103 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 58% | 93 | 73 |
| 27 | Magic | 42% | 90 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 39% | 95 | 92 |
| 14 | Celtics | 61% | 99 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 24% | 95 | 111 |
| 4 | Heat | 76% | 104 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 54% | 90 | 92 |
| 26 | Hornets | 46% | 89 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 49% | 94 | 107 |
| 16 | Bulls | 51% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 28% | 88 | 100 |
| 2 | Spurs | 72% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 29% | 88 | 93 |
| 5 | Kings | 71% | 95 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Timberwolves | 44% | 94 | 96 |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 56% | 96 | 107 | |
Thursday, March 9, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nuggets | 48% | 98 | 97 |
| 17 | 76ers | 52% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 80% | 95 | 109 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 84 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 42% | 96 | 117 |
| 3 | Suns | 58% | 98 | 93 |
Wednesday, March 8, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 42% | 97 | 98 |
| 13 | Raptors | 58% | 100 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 43% | 97 | 101 |
| 14 | Celtics | 57% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 45% | 96 | 101 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 55% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wizards | 24% | 96 | 112 |
| 5 | Heat | 76% | 105 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 17% | 84 | 101 |
| 1 | Pistons | 83% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 54% | 97 | 123 |
| 18 | Bucks | 46% | 96 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 52% | 94 | 113 |
| 23 | Hornets | 48% | 93 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 43% | 87 | 99 |
| 15 | Rockets | 57% | 89 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Timberwolves | 40% | 85 | 93 |
| 25 | Jazz | 60% | 88 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 48% | 93 | 99 |
| 21 | SuperSonics | 52% | 94 | 74 | |
Tuesday, March 7, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celtics | 38% | 97 | 116 |
| 12 | Wizards | 62% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 56% | 99 | 106 |
| 28 | Hawks | 44% | 97 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 37% | 96 | 99 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 63% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 23% | 89 | 107 |
| 10 | Pacers | 77% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 51% | 88 | 93 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 49% | 87 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 41% | 90 | 87 | |
| 18 | Bulls | 59% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 10% | 81 | 87 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 90% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 49% | 91 | 85 |
| 7 | Clippers | 51% | 92 | 98 |
Monday, March 6, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kings | 36% | 92 | 109 |
| 6 | Nets | 64% | 97 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 58% | 97 | 106 |
| 25 | Bobcats | 42% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 63% | 99 | 101 |
| 24 | Hornets | 37% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 37% | 90 | 101 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 63% | 94 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 44% | 87 | 85 |
| 26 | Jazz | 56% | 89 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 57% | 93 | 103 |
| 8 | Lakers | 43% | 91 | 96 |
Sunday, March 5, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Celtics | 49% | 102 | 105 |
| 16 | Raptors | 51% | 103 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 51% | 95 | 94 |
| 21 | 76ers | 49% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kings | 49% | 99 | 107 |
| 14 | Wizards | 51% | 100 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 41% | 97 | 115 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 59% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 47% | 92 | 90 |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 53% | 93 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bulls | 43% | 93 | 72 |
| 17 | Cavaliers | 57% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 82 | 84 |
| 12 | Rockets | 86% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grizzlies | 39% | 89 | 102 |
| 6 | Clippers | 61% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 40% | 95 | 81 |
| 19 | SuperSonics | 60% | 99 | 113 | |
Saturday, March 4, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 30% | 94 | 100 |
| 7 | Nets | 70% | 100 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hawks | 20% | 92 | 93 |
| 10 | Heat | 80% | 103 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 23% | 93 | 103 |
| 19 | Bucks | 77% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 8% | 78 | 81 |
| 2 | Spurs | 92% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Magic | 28% | 91 | 94 |
| 16 | Nuggets | 72% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 57% | 93 | 94 |
| 9 | Lakers | 43% | 91 | 105 |
Friday, March 3, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wizards | 47% | 98 | 113 |
| 21 | 76ers | 53% | 99 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kings | 65% | 101 | 102 |
| 27 | Hawks | 35% | 96 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pacers | 44% | 94 | 98 |
| 11 | Celtics | 56% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 52% | 97 | 108 |
| 28 | Knicks | 48% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nuggets | 41% | 93 | 78 |
| 13 | Rockets | 59% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bobcats | 19% | 89 | 76 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 81% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 61% | 94 | 103 |
| 26 | Jazz | 39% | 90 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Magic | 13% | 90 | 118 |
| 4 | Suns | 87% | 104 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 51% | 99 | 106 |
| 22 | Warriors | 49% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 70% | 99 | 98 |
| 20 | SuperSonics | 30% | 92 | 96 | |
Thursday, March 2, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 38% | 92 | 92 |
| 17 | Bulls | 62% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 40% | 88 | 89 |
| 4 | Spurs | 60% | 91 | 98 |
Wednesday, March 1, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hawks | 31% | 98 | 113 |
| 18 | Raptors | 69% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 46% | 94 | 99 |
| 13 | Wizards | 54% | 95 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kings | 47% | 95 | 97 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 53% | 96 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Heat | 55% | 99 | 103 |
| 12 | Celtics | 45% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 18% | 86 | 99 |
| 7 | Grizzlies | 82% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 60% | 89 | 90 | |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 40% | 86 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 37% | 90 | 106 |
| 16 | Rockets | 63% | 95 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 63% | 94 | 87 |
| 14 | Nuggets | 37% | 90 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 38% | 90 | 104 |
| 23 | Jazz | 62% | 94 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 22% | 96 | 110 |
| 2 | Suns | 78% | 105 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 69% | 97 | 93 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 90 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 21% | 86 | 67 | |
| 8 | Clippers | 79% | 97 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 28% | 89 | 94 |
| 22 | Warriors | 72% | 97 | 98 |
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 36% | 87 | 100 |
| 19 | Bulls | 64% | 92 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 45% | 95 | 104 | |
| 22 | SuperSonics | 55% | 96 | 114 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Magic | 22% | 88 | 87 |
| 9 | Lakers | 78% | 98 | 102 |
Monday, February 27, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 53% | 94 | 102 | |
| 27 | Hawks | 47% | 93 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistons | 58% | 92 | 84 |
| 12 | Cavaliers | 42% | 89 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 22% | 96 | 94 |
| 5 | Heat | 78% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 37% | 89 | 98 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 63% | 93 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Suns | 60% | 98 | 111 |
| 13 | Rockets | 40% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 20% | 90 | 92 |
| 2 | Mavericks | 80% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 12% | 84 | 93 |
| 4 | Spurs | 88% | 99 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bucks | 34% | 94 | 110 |
| 10 | Nuggets | 66% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 11% | 85 | 91 |
| 6 | Kings | 89% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bobcats | 22% | 91 | 87 |
| 7 | Clippers | 78% | 101 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jazz | 43% | 91 | 117 |
| 22 | Warriors | 57% | 93 | 108 |