Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Mavericks | 42% | 92 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Bulls | 32% | 92 | 105 |
 | 11 | Celtics | 68% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Pistons | 25% | 82 | 84 |
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Wednesday, April 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bucks | 34% | 100 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Celtics | 72% | 98 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Raptors | 36% | 99 | 109 |
| 12 | Bulls | 64% | 104 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | Cavaliers | 82% | 99 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 40% | 95 | 84 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 60% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 61% | 92 | 96 |
 | 24 | Heat | 39% | 88 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 46% | 102 | 73 | |
 | 21 | Knicks | 54% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bobcats | 35% | 88 | 73 |
 | 15 | Magic | 65% | 93 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 43% | 89 | 98 | |
| 9 | Spurs | 57% | 92 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 39% | 95 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 28 | Timberwolves | 62% | 104 | 90 |
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 5 | Jazz | 29% | 98 | 112 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 71% | 105 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 31% | 89 | 79 |
| 11 | Hawks | 69% | 96 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 100 |
| 17 | 76ers | 43% | 92 | 98 |
Monday, April 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 15% | 89 | 83 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 85% | 103 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 54% | 99 | 117 |
| 15 | Pacers | 46% | 97 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 45% | 99 | 97 |
| 25 | Wizards | 55% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 41% | 95 | 91 |
| 13 | Pistons | 59% | 98 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 45% | 93 | 87 |
| 18 | Nets | 55% | 95 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Magic | 58% | 96 | 80 |
| 22 | Bucks | 42% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 17% | 93 | 94 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 83% | 106 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kings | 11% | 94 | 98 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 89% | 110 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 18% | 93 | 85 |
| 6 | Jazz | 82% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Grizzlies | 23% | 96 | 110 |
| 14 | Suns | 77% | 106 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 49% | 100 | 101 |
| 19 | Warriors | 51% | 101 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 33% | 89 | 66 | |
| 5 | Rockets | 67% | 95 | 86 |
Sunday, April 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 34% | 99 | 105 |
| 16 | Heat | 66% | 104 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 45% | 96 | 92 |
| 9 | Hornets | 55% | 98 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Celtics | 35% | 88 | 76 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 65% | 93 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 46% | 96 | 104 |
| 22 | Raptors | 54% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Spurs | 68% | 101 | 95 |
| 29 | Kings | 32% | 95 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 14% | 91 | 75 |
| 2 | Lakers | 86% | 105 | 92 |
Saturday, April 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 99 | 87 |
| 26 | Clippers | 31% | 93 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 25% | 102 | 118 |
| 7 | Jazz | 75% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 28% | 93 | 98 |
| 24 | Bucks | 72% | 101 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 38% | 94 | 106 |
| 15 | Bulls | 62% | 98 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 59% | 105 | 110 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 41% | 102 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Magic | 60% | 96 | 93 |
| 22 | Nets | 40% | 93 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 42% | 96 | 102 |
| 16 | Pacers | 58% | 99 | 106 |
Friday, April 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 36% | 100 | 78 |
| 27 | Clippers | 64% | 105 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 49% | 102 | 113 |
| 21 | Warriors | 51% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 21% | 95 | 105 |
| 4 | Magic | 79% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 65% | 94 | 102 |
| 20 | 76ers | 35% | 88 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 36% | 97 | 118 |
| 13 | Hawks | 64% | 102 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 29% | 89 | 98 |
| 8 | Celtics | 71% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 37% | 92 | 93 | |
| 14 | Pistons | 63% | 96 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 64% | 105 | 89 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 36% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 62% | 94 | 81 |
| 28 | Thunder | 38% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 33% | 97 | 100 |
| 22 | Raptors | 67% | 103 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hornets | 39% | 95 | 92 | |
| 7 | Mavericks | 61% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 49% | 95 | 99 |
| 12 | Spurs | 51% | 96 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 40% | 97 | 98 |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 100 | 106 |
Thursday, April 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 30% | 98 | 102 |
| 1 | Lakers | 70% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 72% | 102 | 115 |
| 26 | Kings | 28% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 39% | 96 | 99 |
| 16 | Bulls | 61% | 100 | 113 |
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 28% | 91 | 104 | |
| 8 | Celtics | 72% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 16% | 88 | 86 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 84% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 36% | 100 | 101 |
| 18 | Pacers | 64% | 105 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 12% | 87 | 78 |
| 2 | Magic | 88% | 102 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pistons | 56% | 100 | 113 |
| 23 | Knicks | 44% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 49% | 96 | 113 |
| 24 | Bucks | 51% | 97 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 92 | 95 |
| 11 | Spurs | 54% | 93 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Thunder | 15% | 92 | 112 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 85% | 105 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 45% | 99 | 101 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 55% | 101 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 101 | 105 |
| 22 | Warriors | 74% | 109 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 40% | 99 | 105 |
| 10 | Hornets | 60% | 103 | 100 | |
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 43% | 92 | 93 | |
| 11 | Heat | 57% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 41% | 89 | 98 |
| 17 | Bobcats | 59% | 92 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 46% | 97 | 118 |
| 18 | Raptors | 54% | 98 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 98 | 96 |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 29% | 91 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Spurs | 67% | 95 | 99 |
| 26 | Thunder | 33% | 90 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 32% | 102 | 103 |
| 14 | Bulls | 68% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magic | 49% | 92 | 83 |
| 6 | Rockets | 51% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 106 | 122 |
| 29 | Kings | 20% | 95 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 43% | 98 | 87 |
| 28 | Clippers | 57% | 100 | 77 |
Sunday, April 5, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spurs | 38% | 90 | 81 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 62% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 10% | 92 | 85 |
| 1 | Lakers | 90% | 109 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 60% | 109 | 105 |
| 30 | Kings | 40% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 43% | 95 | 67 |
| 20 | Nets | 57% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pacers | 59% | 101 | 117 |
| 26 | Thunder | 41% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jazz | 46% | 96 | 108 |
| 11 | Hornets | 54% | 97 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 65% | 103 | 110 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 35% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 91 | 88 |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 36% | 102 | 112 |
| 19 | Raptors | 64% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 46% | 88 | 97 |
| 18 | Pistons | 54% | 89 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 37% | 103 | 116 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 63% | 107 | 140 |