Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, March 11, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Hornets | 41% | 109 | 97 |
 | 29 | Pistons | 59% | 112 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Mavericks | 54% | 114 | 127 |
 | 20 | Bulls | 46% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Raptors | 16% | 104 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 121 | ||
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Sunday, March 10, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Bucks | 124 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Pelicans | 65% | 118 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Heat | 108 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Knicks | 63% | 112 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 17 | Magic | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Nets | 120 | ||
| 2 | Cavaliers | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 5 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Timberwolves | 109 | ||
 | 15 | Lakers | 120 | ||
Saturday, March 9, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 30% | 106 | 102 |
| 9 | Clippers | 70% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 99 | ||
| 27 | Hornets | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 69% | 120 | 142 |
| 29 | Pistons | 31% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| 8 | Suns | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 27% | 108 | 126 |
| 10 | Warriors | 73% | 117 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 24 | Jazz | 121 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 142 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 53% | 111 | 118 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 110 | 128 |
Friday, March 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pelicans | 61% | 114 | 103 |
| 5 | 76ers | 39% | 111 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 100 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 46% | 103 | 104 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 54% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 74 | ||
| 15 | Knicks | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 55% | 112 | 99 |
| 19 | Grizzlies | 45% | 110 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 100 | ||
| 6 | Thunder | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 55% | 116 | 122 |
| 14 | Lakers | 45% | 114 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rockets | 123 | ||
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
Thursday, March 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 112 | ||
| 29 | Pistons | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 52% | 113 | 113 |
| 19 | Pacers | 48% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 108 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 106 | 113 |
| 6 | Suns | 75% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 109 | ||
| 7 | Nuggets | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 33% | 106 | 125 |
| 10 | Warriors | 67% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 129 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 131 | ||
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 119 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 60% | 115 | 101 |
| 22 | Hawks | 40% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| 3 | 76ers | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 59% | 112 | 122 |
| 16 | Rockets | 41% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 119 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 51% | 116 | 90 |
| 11 | Warriors | 49% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thunder | 128 | ||
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 43% | 115 | 130 |
| 14 | Lakers | 57% | 118 | 120 |
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 72% | 111 | 101 |
| 27 | Hornets | 28% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 104 | ||
| 2 | Cavaliers | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76ers | 49% | 110 | 107 |
| 23 | Nets | 51% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 110 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 37% | 112 | 116 |
| 14 | Knicks | 63% | 116 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 139 | ||
| 25 | Raptors | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 34% | 108 | 101 |
| 16 | Rockets | 66% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 137 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 35% | 108 | 117 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 65% | 114 | 107 |
Monday, March 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 26% | 100 | 106 |
| 23 | Nets | 74% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 106 | ||
| 6 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 97 | 114 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 86% | 113 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 115 | ||
| 24 | Jazz | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 42% | 110 | 113 |
| 17 | Kings | 58% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 104 | ||
| 15 | Lakers | 116 | ||
Sunday, March 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 76ers | 39% | 116 | 120 |
| 12 | Mavericks | 61% | 121 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 88 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 140 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 41% | 107 | 89 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 59% | 110 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 91 | ||
| 18 | Magic | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 31% | 108 | 106 |
| 24 | Raptors | 69% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 107 | ||
| 2 | Cavaliers | 98 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 61% | 120 | 105 |
| 26 | Spurs | 39% | 116 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 110 | ||
Saturday, March 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 102 | ||
| 23 | Nets | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 33% | 109 | 120 |
| 14 | Heat | 67% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 107 | ||
| 19 | Grizzlies | 100 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 51% | 114 | 124 |
| 15 | Lakers | 49% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rockets | 118 | ||
| 9 | Suns | 109 | ||
Friday, March 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 115 | 110 |
| 29 | Pistons | 22% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 114 | ||
| 5 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 25% | 110 | 110 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 120 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 120 | ||
| 24 | Raptors | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 102 | 122 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 60% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kings | 124 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 39% | 116 | 102 |
| 11 | Pelicans | 61% | 120 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 97 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 18% | 110 | 115 |
| 7 | Clippers | 82% | 123 | 140 |
Thursday, February 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bucks | 74% | 116 | 111 |
| 26 | Hornets | 26% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 107 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 46% | 113 | 97 |
| 23 | Nets | 54% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 110 | ||
| 12 | Knicks | 99 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 77% | 119 | 118 |
| 27 | Spurs | 23% | 108 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 105 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 41% | 107 | 97 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 59% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 131 | ||
| 14 | Lakers | 134 | ||
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pelicans | 43% | 116 | 114 |
| 16 | Pacers | 57% | 119 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 136 | ||
| 24 | Raptors | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Grizzlies | 19% | 97 | 101 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 81% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 123 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 32% | 111 | 96 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 68% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 116 | ||
| 9 | Clippers | 112 | ||
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Mavericks | 119 | ||
| 3 | Cavaliers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 41% | 104 | 81 |
| 21 | Magic | 59% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 123 | ||
| 30 | Wizards | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 45% | 120 | 97 |
| 22 | Hawks | 55% | 121 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 76ers | 99 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pelicans | 49% | 112 | 115 |
| 11 | Knicks | 51% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 105 | ||
| 2 | Timberwolves | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 26% | 104 | 105 |
| 20 | Bulls | 74% | 113 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 85 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 123 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 30% | 107 | 95 |
| 4 | Thunder | 70% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 106 | ||
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 96 | ||