Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Lakers | 81% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Celtics | 74% | 103 | 88 |
 | 22 | Knicks | 26% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Mavericks | 74% | 100 | 82 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Pistons | 65% | 91 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Magic | 59% | 98 | 102 |
 | 15 | Raptors | 41% | 95 | 108 |
Saturday, January 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 27% | 90 | 96 | |
 | 14 | Heat | 73% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Bucks | 49% | 93 | 92 |
 | 23 | Bobcats | 51% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 96 | 102 |
 | 22 | Bulls | 63% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 42% | 96 | 100 | |
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Friday, January 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 55% | 99 | 91 |
| 18 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 30% | 91 | 76 |
| 9 | Magic | 70% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 54% | 97 | 73 |
| 15 | Raptors | 46% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 10% | 84 | 83 |
| 1 | Celtics | 90% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 14% | 88 | 92 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 86% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 47% | 105 | 105 |
| 21 | Knicks | 53% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 25% | 90 | 92 |
| 13 | Pistons | 75% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 72% | 97 | 91 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 28% | 89 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 77% | 104 | 122 |
 | 30 | Thunder | 23% | 94 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 25% | 91 | 86 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 75% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 27 | Timberwolves | 51% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 37% | 91 | 75 |
| 17 | Bucks | 63% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 24% | 93 | 98 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hornets | 54% | 92 | 92 | |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 91 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 10 | Jazz | 31% | 98 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 69% | 104 | 113 |
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 59% | 105 | 100 |
| 30 | Thunder | 41% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 65% | 100 | 113 |
| 21 | Bulls | 35% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 31% | 91 | 75 | |
| 11 | Pistons | 69% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 22% | 90 | 81 |
| 4 | Rockets | 78% | 101 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 51% | 101 | 114 |
| 15 | Raptors | 49% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 56% | 93 | 100 |
| 26 | Clippers | 44% | 91 | 92 |
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 47% | 97 | 90 |
| 25 | Kings | 53% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 38% | 96 | 93 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 62% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 48% | 98 | 110 |
| 18 | Pacers | 52% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 70% | 95 | 95 |
| 16 | Heat | 30% | 88 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 62% | 101 | 101 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 38% | 98 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 15% | 87 | 85 |
| 7 | Hornets | 85% | 101 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 14% | 91 | 100 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 86% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 25% | 90 | 100 |
| 5 | Spurs | 75% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 63% | 93 | 86 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 37% | 89 | 91 |
Monday, December 29, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 39% | 99 | 100 |
| 17 | Nets | 61% | 102 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 57% | 103 | 111 |
| 24 | Warriors | 43% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 33% | 93 | 95 |
| 13 | Jazz | 67% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 17% | 89 | 89 |
| 4 | Rockets | 83% | 101 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 77% | 106 | 110 |
| 30 | Thunder | 23% | 96 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 46% | 98 | 98 |
| 29 | Timberwolves | 54% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 51% | 93 | 82 |
| 11 | Pistons | 49% | 92 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 43% | 97 | 91 |
| 12 | Hawks | 57% | 99 | 109 |
Sunday, December 28, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 13% | 98 | 113 |
| 3 | Lakers | 87% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 81% | 101 | 108 |
| 27 | Kings | 19% | 90 | 63 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 62% | 98 | 105 | |
| 23 | Pacers | 38% | 94 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 16% | 85 | 86 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 84% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 98 | 98 |
| 25 | Clippers | 32% | 92 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 64% | 107 | 117 |
| 22 | Knicks | 36% | 103 | 110 |
Saturday, December 27, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 13% | 87 | 103 |
| 4 | Spurs | 87% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 26% | 92 | 117 |
| 13 | Hawks | 74% | 101 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 37% | 93 | 114 | |
| 18 | Bobcats | 63% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 28% | 94 | 95 |
| 25 | Wizards | 72% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 75% | 102 | 118 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 25% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Jazz | 32% | 91 | 115 |
| 9 | Rockets | 68% | 97 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 44% | 93 | 87 |
| 16 | Bucks | 56% | 95 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 29% | 92 | 89 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 71% | 100 | 102 |
Friday, December 26, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 31% | 102 | 120 |
| 18 | Knicks | 69% | 108 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 38% | 94 | 77 |
| 15 | Heat | 62% | 98 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bobcats | 44% | 94 | 95 |
| 20 | Nets | 56% | 96 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 16% | 88 | 88 |
| 12 | Pistons | 84% | 101 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 55% | 98 | 105 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 45% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 26% | 93 | 101 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 74% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mavericks | 47% | 96 | 88 |
| 14 | Jazz | 53% | 97 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 49% | 91 | 79 |
| 10 | Hornets | 51% | 92 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 61% | 100 | 107 |
| 27 | Kings | 39% | 96 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 104 | 89 |
| 25 | Warriors | 22% | 94 | 99 |
Thursday, December 25, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 42% | 96 | 83 |
| 3 | Lakers | 58% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 43% | 93 | 68 | |
| 10 | Magic | 57% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 43% | 97 | 91 |
| 4 | Suns | 57% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 12% | 87 | 89 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 88% | 102 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 47% | 96 | 102 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 97 | 94 |
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 46% | 96 | 100 |
| 9 | Hornets | 54% | 97 | 87 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 35% | 92 | 72 |
| 19 | Bobcats | 65% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rockets | 27% | 89 | 90 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 97 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 37% | 97 | 108 | |
| 23 | Pacers | 63% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 17% | 90 | 88 |
| 14 | Hawks | 83% | 103 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 16% | 86 | 91 |
| 1 | Celtics | 84% | 100 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 26% | 97 | 88 |
| 15 | Heat | 74% | 105 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 30% | 93 | 98 |
| 12 | Pistons | 70% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 58% | 99 | 86 |
| 20 | Bucks | 42% | 97 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 14% | 89 | 82 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 86% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 18% | 89 | 93 |
| 4 | Spurs | 82% | 101 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 46% | 97 | 92 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 54% | 98 | 101 |
Monday, December 22, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Warriors | 19% | 98 | 81 |
| 9 | Magic | 81% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 49% | 95 | 97 |
| 23 | Clippers | 51% | 96 | 75 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 96 | 89 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 65% | 101 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 15% | 89 | 85 |
| 4 | Spurs | 85% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 80% | 105 | 105 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 20% | 94 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 99 | 114 |
| 15 | Nets | 42% | 96 | 91 | |