Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Magic | 70% | 102 | 139 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 37% | 96 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 55% | 99 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Heat | 53% | 97 | 99 |
 | 24 | Timberwolves | 47% | 96 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Bobcats | 31% | 85 | 80 |
 | 13 | Pistons | 69% | 91 | 78 |
Monday, January 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 25% | 95 | 99 |
| 17 | Nets | 75% | 103 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Bucks | 58% | 97 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Raptors | 18% | 88 | 109 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 82% | 100 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 23% | 95 | 101 |
| 6 | Hornets | 77% | 104 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Bulls | 42% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, January 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 21% | 93 | 105 |
| 2 | Lakers | 79% | 104 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 64% | 102 | 95 |
| 26 | Kings | 36% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 54% | 108 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 41% | 91 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Suns | 72% | 101 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 20 | Hawks | 57% | 96 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 69% | 97 | 94 |
| 17 | Raptors | 31% | 91 | 88 |
Saturday, January 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 46% | 98 | 104 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 54% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 49% | 91 | 92 |
| 27 | Wizards | 51% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 27% | 94 | 109 |
| 22 | Bulls | 73% | 102 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 27% | 88 | 82 |
| 5 | Jazz | 73% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Warriors | 28% | 98 | 100 |
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 33% | 97 | 76 |
| 12 | Rockets | 67% | 103 | 96 |
Friday, January 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 32% | 93 | 82 |
| 17 | Raptors | 68% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 30% | 92 | 87 |
| 5 | Magic | 70% | 99 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bobcats | 40% | 90 | 87 |
| 18 | 76ers | 60% | 93 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 46% | 90 | 83 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 54% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 13% | 83 | 80 |
| 7 | Hornets | 87% | 98 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 72% | 99 | 98 |
| 30 | Thunder | 28% | 91 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 38% | 95 | 102 | |
| 22 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pistons | 32% | 91 | 93 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 68% | 97 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 58% | 98 | 119 |
| 26 | Kings | 42% | 96 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 21% | 99 | 119 |
| 2 | Lakers | 79% | 110 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 39% | 100 | 100 |
| 10 | Suns | 61% | 104 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 39% | 94 | 86 |
| 23 | Bulls | 61% | 97 | 98 |
Thursday, January 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 16% | 83 | 84 |
| 4 | Spurs | 84% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Knicks | 23% | 98 | 94 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 77% | 108 | 99 |
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 22% | 87 | 89 |
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 97 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 35% | 93 | 89 |
| 25 | Nets | 65% | 98 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 38% | 95 | 110 |
| 20 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 33% | 96 | 87 |
| 24 | Timberwolves | 67% | 101 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 27% | 93 | 97 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 73% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 30% | 101 | 113 |
| 10 | Suns | 70% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 41% | 94 | 90 | |
| 9 | Jazz | 59% | 97 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 44% | 88 | 83 |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 56% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 110 | 114 |
| 19 | Warriors | 33% | 105 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 59% | 97 | 99 |
| 27 | Wizards | 41% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bobcats | 14% | 82 | 81 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 86% | 96 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 43% | 95 | 106 |
| 12 | Hawks | 57% | 97 | 102 |
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 31% | 94 | 116 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 69% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Clippers | 17% | 86 | 102 |
| 6 | Mavericks | 83% | 99 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 33% | 97 | 94 |
| 23 | Bulls | 67% | 102 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 61% | 105 | 99 |
| 30 | Thunder | 39% | 101 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 45% | 97 | 94 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 55% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 55% | 94 | 96 |
| 18 | 76ers | 45% | 92 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 16% | 89 | 80 |
| 4 | Magic | 84% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 94 | 106 |
| 22 | Bobcats | 25% | 85 | 114 |
Monday, January 5, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pacers | 27% | 99 | 115 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 73% | 107 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 59% | 93 | 91 |
| 18 | Heat | 41% | 90 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 34% | 99 | 90 |
| 16 | Nets | 66% | 104 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 40% | 96 | 97 |
| 21 | Bucks | 60% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 25% | 100 | 114 |
| 9 | Jazz | 75% | 109 | 119 |
Sunday, January 4, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 92 | 86 |
| 1 | Lakers | 81% | 103 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 74% | 103 | 88 |
| 22 | Knicks | 26% | 95 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 74% | 100 | 82 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 26% | 91 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 65% | 91 | 88 |
| 28 | Clippers | 35% | 86 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 79% | 98 | 77 |
| 27 | Wizards | 21% | 88 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 59% | 98 | 102 |
| 15 | Raptors | 41% | 95 | 108 |
Saturday, January 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 37% | 96 | 102 |
| 22 | Bulls | 63% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rockets | 39% | 92 | 100 |
| 10 | Hawks | 61% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bucks | 49% | 93 | 92 |
| 23 | Bobcats | 51% | 94 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kings | 30% | 99 | 117 |
| 17 | Pacers | 70% | 105 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 27% | 90 | 96 | |
| 14 | Heat | 73% | 97 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 25% | 87 | 106 |
| 6 | Spurs | 75% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 42% | 96 | 100 | |
| 7 | Nuggets | 58% | 98 | 105 |
Friday, January 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 49% | 105 | 108 |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 51% | 106 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 30% | 91 | 76 |
| 9 | Magic | 70% | 98 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 54% | 97 | 73 |
| 15 | Raptors | 46% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 10% | 84 | 83 |
| 1 | Celtics | 90% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 14% | 88 | 92 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 86% | 102 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 55% | 99 | 91 |
| 18 | Nets | 45% | 97 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 47% | 105 | 105 |
| 21 | Knicks | 53% | 106 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kings | 25% | 90 | 92 |
| 13 | Pistons | 75% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 72% | 97 | 91 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 28% | 89 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nuggets | 77% | 104 | 122 |
| 30 | Thunder | 23% | 94 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 25% | 91 | 86 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 75% | 100 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bobcats | 37% | 91 | 75 |
| 17 | Bucks | 63% | 95 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 24% | 93 | 98 |
| 12 | Suns | 76% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hornets | 54% | 92 | 92 | |
| 14 | Trail Blazers | 46% | 91 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 31% | 98 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 69% | 104 | 113 |
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 31% | 91 | 75 | |
| 11 | Pistons | 69% | 98 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bucks | 22% | 90 | 81 |
| 4 | Rockets | 78% | 101 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 51% | 101 | 114 |
| 15 | Raptors | 49% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 59% | 105 | 100 |
| 30 | Thunder | 41% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 76ers | 56% | 93 | 100 |
| 26 | Clippers | 44% | 91 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 65% | 100 | 113 |
| 21 | Bulls | 35% | 95 | 94 |