Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, November 24, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Knicks | 31% | 100 | 101 |
 | 17 | Celtics | 69% | 106 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Bulls | 51% | 95 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 46% | 99 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Magic | 47% | 92 | 107 |
 | 23 | Heat | 53% | 93 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Bobcats | 26% | 89 | 95 |
 | 5 | Pistons | 74% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Timberwolves | 40% | 93 | 86 |
| 18 | Hornets | 60% | 96 | 79 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 2 | Mavericks | 39% | 93 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Lakers | 40% | 100 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 25% | 98 | 93 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | SuperSonics | 69% | 107 | 100 | |
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cavaliers | 45% | 98 | 87 |
| 19 | Raptors | 55% | 100 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Celtics | 51% | 99 | 83 |
| 29 | Bobcats | 49% | 98 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 32% | 91 | 91 |
| 14 | Magic | 68% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hawks | 28% | 90 | 98 |
| 5 | Pistons | 72% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 21% | 86 | 86 |
| 3 | Spurs | 79% | 96 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 76ers | 38% | 95 | 94 |
 | 25 | Bucks | 62% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Knicks | 34% | 97 | 89 |
| 21 | Timberwolves | 66% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wizards | 20% | 91 | 82 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hornets | 17% | 98 | 83 | |
| 2 | Suns | 83% | 110 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jazz | 40% | 100 | 110 |
| 13 | Kings | 60% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 61% | 96 | 97 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SuperSonics | 39% | 101 | 95 | |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 6 | Clippers | 61% | 105 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nuggets | 35% | 104 | 115 |
| 11 | Warriors | 65% | 108 | 112 |
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pistons | 61% | 93 | 97 |
| 26 | 76ers | 39% | 90 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 21% | 88 | 94 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 79% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bucks | 40% | 97 | 88 |
| 23 | Pacers | 60% | 101 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heat | 48% | 92 | 86 |
| 19 | Hornets | 52% | 93 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Wizards | 30% | 98 | 80 |
| 4 | Mavericks | 70% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bulls | 45% | 100 | 109 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 55% | 101 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 44% | 98 | 101 |
| 7 | Lakers | 56% | 100 | 105 |
Monday, November 20, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 65% | 99 | 93 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 35% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rockets | 67% | 100 | 97 |
| 28 | Knicks | 33% | 94 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 54% | 94 | 86 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 46% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 32% | 103 | 96 |
| 16 | Jazz | 68% | 108 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 71% | 97 | 107 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 29% | 89 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 39% | 100 | 87 | |
| 10 | SuperSonics | 61% | 104 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Suns | 54% | 107 | 113 |
| 11 | Warriors | 46% | 106 | 110 |
Sunday, November 19, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 41% | 96 | 72 |
| 8 | Lakers | 59% | 99 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spurs | 54% | 97 | 108 |
| 7 | Kings | 46% | 96 | 99 |
Saturday, November 18, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 46% | 99 | 99 |
| 16 | Wizards | 54% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 46% | 94 | 93 |
| 25 | Hawks | 54% | 95 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Bobcats | 30% | 93 | 83 |
| 17 | Magic | 70% | 99 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 19% | 89 | 86 |
| 13 | Nets | 81% | 101 | 68 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Celtics | 51% | 102 | 122 |
| 27 | Knicks | 49% | 101 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rockets | 52% | 92 | 92 |
| 5 | Pistons | 48% | 91 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hornets | 48% | 94 | 99 | |
| 23 | Timberwolves | 52% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 38% | 96 | 102 |
| 24 | Bucks | 62% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 14% | 89 | 84 |
| 1 | Mavericks | 86% | 103 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 26% | 102 | 109 |
| 15 | Nuggets | 74% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Suns | 47% | 105 | 117 |
| 18 | Jazz | 53% | 106 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 76ers | 26% | 94 | 97 |
| 6 | Clippers | 74% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SuperSonics | 33% | 102 | 95 | |
| 10 | Warriors | 67% | 108 | 107 |
Friday, November 17, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nets | 51% | 96 | 100 | |
| 24 | Pacers | 49% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 94 | 90 |
| 19 | Celtics | 75% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 23% | 93 | 100 |
| 5 | Heat | 77% | 103 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Timberwolves | 31% | 93 | 76 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 69% | 99 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 35% | 97 | 91 |
| 8 | Pistons | 65% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 68% | 97 | 115 |
| 27 | Grizzlies | 32% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 24% | 88 | 83 |
| 1 | Spurs | 76% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 29% | 99 | 94 |
| 4 | Suns | 71% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 30% | 100 | 100 |
| 13 | Lakers | 70% | 107 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jazz | 39% | 104 | 118 |
| 9 | SuperSonics | 61% | 108 | 109 | |
Thursday, November 16, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 31% | 88 | 100 |
| 2 | Rockets | 69% | 94 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kings | 41% | 99 | 105 |
| 14 | Warriors | 59% | 102 | 117 |
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nuggets | 37% | 99 | 99 |
| 14 | Magic | 63% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 86 | 87 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 86% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 44% | 96 | 88 |
| 21 | Celtics | 56% | 98 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 28% | 98 | 87 |
| 15 | Nets | 72% | 105 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wizards | 58% | 106 | 82 |
| 28 | Knicks | 42% | 103 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 28% | 90 | 100 | |
| 12 | Pistons | 72% | 98 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 15% | 87 | 95 |
| 1 | Spurs | 85% | 100 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 23% | 89 | 111 |
| 11 | Kings | 77% | 98 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 33% | 100 | 96 |
| 8 | SuperSonics | 67% | 105 | 90 | |
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 45% | 101 | 103 |
| 25 | Hawks | 55% | 103 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nuggets | 34% | 97 | 112 |
| 6 | Heat | 66% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Bobcats | 34% | 93 | 85 |
| 19 | Hornets | 66% | 98 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 26% | 91 | 89 |
| 17 | Timberwolves | 74% | 99 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spurs | 39% | 90 | 92 |
| 1 | Rockets | 61% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bulls | 34% | 92 | 99 |
| 3 | Mavericks | 66% | 97 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 52% | 103 | 90 |
| 20 | Jazz | 48% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 34% | 100 | 99 |
| 16 | Warriors | 66% | 106 | 110 |
Monday, November 13, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 44% | 98 | 92 |
| 21 | Celtics | 56% | 100 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SuperSonics | 44% | 101 | 119 | |
| 13 | Nets | 56% | 103 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 64% | 101 | 102 |
| 28 | Knicks | 36% | 97 | 96 |
Sunday, November 12, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hornets | 34% | 97 | 76 | |
| 6 | Clippers | 66% | 102 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 42% | 103 | 105 | |
| 11 | Wizards | 58% | 106 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 51% | 102 | 108 |
| 26 | Bobcats | 49% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rockets | 49% | 91 | 94 |
| 4 | Heat | 51% | 92 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Raptors | 28% | 96 | 92 |
| 14 | Kings | 72% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mavericks | 72% | 99 | 103 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 22% | 91 | 81 |
| 10 | Lakers | 78% | 101 | 91 |
Saturday, November 11, 2006
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SuperSonics | 48% | 101 | 113 | |
| 26 | Hawks | 52% | 102 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Celtics | 22% | 92 | 93 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 78% | 102 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Knicks | 11% | 91 | 92 |
| 3 | Spurs | 89% | 106 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Magic | 33% | 92 | 109 |
| 18 | Timberwolves | 67% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 27% | 91 | 80 |
| 10 | Bulls | 73% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 47% | 103 | 113 |
| 20 | Bucks | 53% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 17% | 96 | 87 |
| 2 | Suns | 83% | 108 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pistons | 46% | 96 | 79 |
| 19 | Warriors | 54% | 97 | 111 |