Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Mavericks | 31% | 95 | 96 |
 | 2 | Lakers | 69% | 102 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Raptors | 39% | 98 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 16 | Knicks | 72% | 105 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bobcats | 19% | 85 | 91 |
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Saturday, January 2, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Hornets | 53% | 99 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 83% | 101 | 94 |
| 29 | Nets | 17% | 89 | 86 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bobcats | 43% | 90 | 107 |
 | 15 | Heat | 57% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Timberwolves | 35% | 97 | 111 |
| 28 | Pacers | 65% | 102 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 59% | 102 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 25% | 92 | 96 |
 | 5 | Celtics | 75% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Magic | 65% | 96 | 93 |
 | 25 | Bulls | 35% | 91 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Thunder | 49% | 95 | 97 |
 | 24 | Bucks | 51% | 96 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 44% | 99 | 105 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 73% | 104 | 99 |
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Friday, January 1, 2010
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 16% | 95 | 108 |
| 2 | Lakers | 84% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 78% | 105 | 106 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 22% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Knicks | 30% | 98 | 112 |
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Thursday, December 31, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 26% | 92 | 78 |
| 5 | Spurs | 74% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Bulls | 41% | 91 | 98 |
 | 21 | Pistons | 59% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mavericks | 52% | 99 | 94 |
| 11 | Rockets | 48% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 47% | 96 | 86 |
| 16 | Thunder | 53% | 97 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 48% | 96 | 88 |
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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hawks | 27% | 92 | 101 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 73% | 100 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 54% | 101 | 121 |
| 28 | Pacers | 46% | 100 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 19% | 92 | 92 |
| 3 | Magic | 81% | 103 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bobcats | 45% | 95 | 103 |
| 14 | Raptors | 55% | 97 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 55% | 100 | 95 |
| 29 | Nets | 45% | 99 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 43% | 96 | 91 |
| 12 | Hornets | 57% | 98 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 54% | 102 | 98 |
| 7 | Suns | 46% | 101 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 28% | 91 | 99 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 72% | 98 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 51% | 102 | 116 |
| 26 | Kings | 49% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jazz | 75% | 105 | 107 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 25% | 96 | 103 |
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hornets | 40% | 97 | 100 | |
| 11 | Rockets | 60% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 53% | 97 | 95 |
| 9 | Hawks | 47% | 96 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Thunder | 44% | 98 | 110 |
| 18 | Wizards | 56% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 43% | 97 | 104 |
| 20 | Pistons | 57% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pacers | 38% | 92 | 95 |
| 25 | Bulls | 62% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 15% | 92 | 99 |
| 6 | Spurs | 85% | 106 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Warriors | 18% | 97 | 118 |
| 4 | Lakers | 82% | 109 | 124 |
Monday, December 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 44% | 103 | 111 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 56% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 67% | 103 | 99 |
| 24 | Warriors | 33% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 58% | 104 | 101 |
| 26 | Kings | 42% | 102 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 32% | 93 | 104 |
| 12 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 99 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 56% | 106 | 103 |
| 7 | Suns | 44% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Thunder | 58% | 97 | 105 |
| 28 | Nets | 42% | 94 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 40% | 91 | 84 |
| 16 | Bobcats | 60% | 95 | 94 |
Sunday, December 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 79% | 100 | 90 |
| 29 | Clippers | 21% | 89 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mavericks | 42% | 99 | 104 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 58% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 54% | 100 | 95 |
| 18 | Knicks | 46% | 99 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pacers | 26% | 92 | 80 |
| 14 | Heat | 74% | 101 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 22% | 90 | 83 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 78% | 100 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 36% | 95 | 95 |
| 15 | Raptors | 64% | 99 | 102 |
Saturday, December 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 72% | 105 | 112 |
| 25 | Kings | 28% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 22% | 95 | 101 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 78% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 64% | 102 | 110 |
| 27 | Pacers | 36% | 98 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 68% | 100 | 98 |
| 28 | Nets | 32% | 94 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hornets | 57% | 97 | 85 | |
| 24 | Bulls | 43% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 61% | 104 | 89 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 39% | 101 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 45% | 90 | 91 |
| 20 | Thunder | 55% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 57% | 98 | 112 |
| 16 | Bucks | 43% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 30% | 97 | 76 |
| 9 | Jazz | 70% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Suns | 55% | 111 | 127 |
| 23 | Warriors | 45% | 109 | 132 |
Friday, December 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 48% | 98 | 93 |
| 19 | Knicks | 52% | 99 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 42% | 93 | 86 |
| 3 | Magic | 58% | 96 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 36% | 94 | 102 |
| 1 | Lakers | 64% | 98 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 53% | 99 | 96 |
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 98 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Clippers | 25% | 100 | 93 |
| 8 | Suns | 75% | 109 | 124 |
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Wizards | 31% | 98 | 109 |
| 14 | Bucks | 69% | 104 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 27% | 94 | 87 |
| 3 | Magic | 73% | 102 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 49% | 97 | 94 |
| 24 | Pistons | 51% | 98 | 64 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 53% | 98 | 70 |
| 15 | Heat | 47% | 97 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 103 |
| 29 | Nets | 66% | 101 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Warriors | 24% | 101 | 102 |
| 12 | Hornets | 76% | 110 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 91 | 98 |
| 6 | Spurs | 69% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 35% | 99 | 104 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 65% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Thunder | 27% | 98 | 117 |
| 8 | Suns | 73% | 106 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 103 | 117 |
| 25 | Kings | 27% | 95 | 104 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Thunder | 20% | 90 | 108 |
| 2 | Lakers | 80% | 101 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 36% | 87 | 76 |
| 16 | Bobcats | 64% | 91 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 44% | 101 | 98 |
| 20 | Wizards | 56% | 103 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pacers | 10% | 86 | 94 |
| 1 | Celtics | 90% | 103 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 37% | 96 | 81 |
| 21 | Knicks | 63% | 100 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 41% | 105 | 108 |
| 22 | Grizzlies | 59% | 108 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hawks | 74% | 104 | 112 |
| 30 | Timberwolves | 26% | 96 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 93 | 85 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 66% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 22% | 92 | 99 |
| 10 | Rockets | 78% | 102 | 108 |
Monday, December 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bucks | 55% | 100 | 84 |
| 28 | Pacers | 45% | 98 | 81 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 47% | 101 | 109 |
| 8 | Suns | 53% | 102 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Clippers | 22% | 91 | 87 |
| 5 | Spurs | 78% | 101 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kings | 40% | 96 | 102 |
| 24 | Bulls | 60% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jazz | 32% | 97 | 99 |
| 4 | Magic | 68% | 103 | 104 |